ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
drewschmaltz
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7261 Postby drewschmaltz » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:28 am

terstorm1012 wrote:has anyone heard from Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds? Sorry to take up room on the thread...but neither have posted since around noon yesterday.


A couple pages back confirmation that Jim made it through was posted. No more details and nothing yet on Josh. Jim was at Abaco Inn. I have a house not 500 yards from there and know some residents. Will post updates if I get anything.
4 likes   
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7185
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7262 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:28 am

SFLcane wrote:Good morning, local Mets here across SFL seem pretty convinced TS winds are likely in Broward. Still only watch in place though and these rain bands have not been very impressive at all.

its been a non-event so far, haven t seen a gust over 25, maybe more later, we were very fortunate and good to see people prepared,,,sofla kids hit a grand slam, minimal effects here and they get the day off school tomorrow...this thing has wreaked enough havoc for the bahamas, hopefully its stays east in the coming days
2 likes   
Top
Stangfriik
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 2:25 pm
Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact Stangfriik

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7263 Postby Stangfriik » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:28 am

terstorm1012 wrote:has anyone heard from Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds? Sorry to take up room on the thread...but neither have posted since around noon yesterday.



Jim edds checked in but not Josh yet from what I've seen
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1 ... 51362?s=19
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7264 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:29 am

VIS loop

Image


Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7265 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:29 am

 https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168522003009220608


Last edited by tolakram on Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed tweet display
3 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7266 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:29 am

GCANE wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:Dorian's warm core extends way up in the troposphere.
Anticyclone is creating a big bubble in the tropopause, way past 100mb.
So, the current mid-layer trough will have a near negligable effect on pulling Dorian north.

https://i.imgur.com/beB2IQC.png

https://i.imgur.com/FbrTkXO.png

Well the trough that’s suppose to pull north hasn’t even arrived yet.


Looks pretty darn close, enough to have started some sort of tug on it by now

https://i.imgur.com/35rHa5d.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ontrMq2.png



That door is awfully small
1 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
Top
Stangfriik
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 2:25 pm
Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact Stangfriik

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7267 Postby Stangfriik » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:32 am

Wow
https://twitter.com/ukweathereye/status ... 53953?s=19
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11504
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7268 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:33 am

 https://twitter.com/ZNSBahamas242/status/1168515961957363712


1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7269 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:33 am



Wow.
0 likes   
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6369
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7270 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:36 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:
NDG wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png


When the waters are shallow, there is no upwelling 8-)


Maybe not upwelling but water temp will cool faster then. How is that?


I agree. It isn’t so much upwelling. SSTs are near 30C. Many, many hours of rain cooled air without the normal sunshine mean there is much cooler air than 30C in contact with the ocean surface. Those waters almost have to cool 3-5+ degrees while the storm is still there. Once the waters cool, there’s less potential energy to tap and he should weaken just from that, alone. Another way I think about it is conservation of energy. The storm gets its energy from the warm ocean. As the potential energy is utilized by the storm, the ocean below it loses that potential energy, which means cooling.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
alienstorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
Location: Miami Fla western suburb

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7271 Postby alienstorm » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:42 am

A slight westward drift has commenced per radar.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
birddogsc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:09 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7272 Postby birddogsc » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:44 am

alienstorm wrote:A slight westward drift has commenced per radar.


Might have picked up a little speed in fact... need some time to know of course.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4825
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7273 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:46 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Good morning, local Mets here across SFL seem pretty convinced TS winds are likely in Broward. Still only watch in place though and these rain bands have not been very impressive at all.

its been a non-event so far, haven t seen a gust over 25, maybe more later, we were very fortunate and good to see people prepared,,,sofla kids hit a grand slam, minimal effects here and they get the day off school tomorrow...this thing has wreaked enough havoc for the bahamas, hopefully its stays east in the coming days


Look for your weather to go slowly downhill starting this afternoon as daytime heating juices up the storms outer bands and higher winds above the surface mix down in some of the squalls. Think tonight and tomorrow will be the worst of it. Its just drifting toward you at a snails pace now.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11504
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7274 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:47 am

IR showing some large mesovorts on the eyewall now.
Nowhere has a circular shape anymore.
Cloud tops quickly warming as well.
Last edited by GCANE on Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7275 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:48 am

Possible funnel cloud out of NWS Miami
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/116 ... 63875?s=20
Last edited by tronbunny on Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7276 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:49 am

GCANE wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:Dorian's warm core extends way up in the troposphere.
Anticyclone is creating a big bubble in the tropopause, way past 100mb.
So, the current mid-layer trough will have a near negligable effect on pulling Dorian north.

https://i.imgur.com/beB2IQC.png

https://i.imgur.com/FbrTkXO.png

Well the trough that’s suppose to pull north hasn’t even arrived yet.


Looks pretty darn close, enough to have started some sort of tug on it by now

https://i.imgur.com/35rHa5d.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ontrMq2.png

Wasn’t there 2 troughs? One that was suppose to stall and the other that was suppose to pull it north?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
birddogsc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:09 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7277 Postby birddogsc » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:49 am

Also, the eyewall is finally edging into hi-res NEXRAD range.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
alienstorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
Location: Miami Fla western suburb

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7278 Postby alienstorm » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:50 am

Here you can see the movement.
Image
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
ThetaE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:50 pm
Location: Boston

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7279 Postby ThetaE » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:50 am

GCANE wrote:IR showing some large mesovorts on the eyewall now.
Nowhere has a circular shape anymore.


Yup! You can see it on Miami radar too: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html
0 likes   
I'm a busy grad student, not a professional forecaster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts.
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7280 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:52 am

11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.3°W
Moving: W at 1 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
0 likes   
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests