ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alienstorm]

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Jevo]

NHC still going with a W motion overall. Perhaps the IR deceived us earlier with the Northerly lurching.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1168536254448881664

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1168536254448881664

That looks like the Virgin Islands after Irma

[jlauderdal]

Good morning, local Mets here across SFL seem pretty convinced TS winds are likely in Broward. Still only watch in place though and these rain bands have not been very impressive at all.

its been a non-event so far, haven t seen a gust over 25, maybe more later, we were very fortunate and good to see people prepared,,,sofla kids hit a grand slam, minimal effects here and they get the day off school tomorrow...this thing has wreaked enough havoc for the bahamas, hopefully its stays east in the coming days

Look for your weather to go slowly downhill starting this afternoon as daytime heating juices up the storms outer bands and higher winds above the surface mix down in some of the squalls. Think tonight and tomorrow will be the worst of it. Its just drifting toward you at a snails pace now.

if we get any heating at all the atmosphere will really be primed, doesn't get much more efficient than this type of air mass to produce convection, an intense cell just developed in broward

[northjaxpro]

NHC still going with a W motion overall. Perhaps the IR deceived us earlier with the Northerly lurching.

Wobble. You can easily be deceived by them

[supercane4867]

...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE AS DORIAN INCHES WESTWARD...
11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.3°W
Moving: W at 1 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

11AM down to 135kt CAT4, still moving west at 1mph

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC still going with a W motion overall. Perhaps the IR deceived us earlier with the Northerly lurching.

Wobble watching will drive you mad. I believe that’s a Quiet Riot lyric.

[GCANE]

Actually straight west is 270 degrees.
They are acknowledging a slight north component.

[GCANE]

Nice video of the breakdown of the eye

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1168532549372534790

[Buck]

Here you can see the movement.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/2683/SawLuY.png

Looks less like much movement and more like a larger eye to me.

[Kat5]

Might start it’s initial turn very early just by looking at the 500mb map.

[Full8s]

11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.3°W
Moving: W at 1 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

That's impressively close to the projected coordinates presented by the NHC (forecaster Brown) exactly 36 hours prior (26.8N 78.1W)

[ronjon]

its been a non-event so far, haven t seen a gust over 25, maybe more later, we were very fortunate and good to see people prepared,,,sofla kids hit a grand slam, minimal effects here and they get the day off school tomorrow...this thing has wreaked enough havoc for the bahamas, hopefully its stays east in the coming days

Look for your weather to go slowly downhill starting this afternoon as daytime heating juices up the storms outer bands and higher winds above the surface mix down in some of the squalls. Think tonight and tomorrow will be the worst of it. Its just drifting toward you at a snails pace now.

if we get any heating at all the atmosphere will really be primed, doesn't get much more efficient than this type of air mass to produce convection, an intense cell just developed in broward

An NHC predicts movement of roughly 50 miles W-NW by 8am tomorrow so that might bring the core of convection on the coast by then.

[Ptarmigan]

Heavy rain and storm surge is going to be really bad as Dorian is nearly stationary.

[supercane4867]

From early this morning:

 https://twitter.com/earthuncuttv/status/1168400510212177920

[jlauderdal]

Look for your weather to go slowly downhill starting this afternoon as daytime heating juices up the storms outer bands and higher winds above the surface mix down in some of the squalls. Think tonight and tomorrow will be the worst of it. Its just drifting toward you at a snails pace now.

if we get any heating at all the atmosphere will really be primed, doesn't get much more efficient than this type of air mass to produce convection, an intense cell just developed in broward

An NHC predicts movement of roughly 50 miles W-NW by 8am tomorrow so that might bring the core of convection on the coast by then.

50 miles is significant, don't see how it gets that far by then but they are fantastic with track inside 72 hours

[HDGator]

Good morning!
That was a late night last night watching Dorian barrel westward until the stall finally verified way too close for comfort here in northern Palm Beach County.
It's breezy here this morning and seems to be picking up especially when the squalls roll through.
It's hard to imagine what our neighbors in the Bahamas have undergone last night and are continuing to go through right now just to my east.
My prayers continue for their safe delivery from this hell on earth.

It looks like Dorian's wind field may be starting to expand potentially having larger impacts on Florida even with an eye track off the coast.
I'd love to hear anyone's insight on what kind of expansion we could see?

[tropicwatch]

AF has a plane up headed for Dorian.