ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sbcc]

[CFLHurricane]

What are the conditions like along the Florida coastline?....are yall experiencing Tropical Storm level winds?

It’s just a breezy hazy September day. Not even any rain.

It’s kind of a let down considering all the hurricane prep, tbh. I was looking forward to a windy rainy fall day.

[DelrayMorris]

What are the conditions like along the Florida coastline?....are yall experiencing Tropical Storm level winds?

Not in Delray Beach. Rain bands come through and they are a little squally but the wind isn't really the problem so much as the rain. (and that's not even flood-level or anything. Just like regular afternoon thunderstorms, but in the morning and at semi-regular intervals)

[jaxfladude]

Prayers to one and all!!!!!
Anyword/news on the Bahamas? Sorry if already asked or posted just now able to get on here.

[DelrayMorris]

Prayers to one and all!!!!!
Anyword/news on the Bahamas? Sorry if already asked or posted just now able to get on here.

Some video has gotten out from Abacoa... it wasn't good. I imagine Grand Bahama Island will be similar, except they've been under the eye for like 15 hours.

[supercane4867]

I won't be surprised if recon finds much weaker winds, with pressure staying the same

[chaser1]

They don't have to close, and no "Government" is not interfering with business a HURRICANE is. There is a call for it in Oceola County.... its called an EMERGENCY DECLARATION. Having people out and about during the storm is bad for their safety, bad for emergency responders, bad for everyone. If you have a problem with it contact your employer and explain that you live in the affected area and BY LAW you cannot leave your home until after 6 am Wednesday.....Also, this declaration just happened, I won't be surprised if due to it the parks close or open later Wednesday knowing they can't get the employees there

They jumped the gun. According to NHC forecasts, we have a little tropical storm force gusts in Orlando. The parks were not happy about having closed for nothing for Matthew's impact on Orlando. As of 10:30 am, there has been no decision to close the parks. Chances are good they won't say anything until Tuesday if they do.

Just to clarify for anyone reading this, inland FL counties of Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake are now officially in a tropical storm warning, so that will likely guide decisions to close stuff.

Wow? T.S. Warnings? Seems a bit "heavy-handed" given that confidence in the 1-3 day forecast path seems to be increasingly solid. Here in the storms' west quad, it appears that sustained winds will remain well under 30mph. Granted, any strong squalls that develop within banding features that form over land would well bring fast bursts of intense rain and strong gusts. I'll frankly be surprised if any inland location records sustained 40 + mph winds assuming the center remains roughly 40 miles east of the Titusville area

[xironman]

Per radar the wnw movement has resumed. Certainly has weakened during the stall, may pick up over the gulf stream though.

SPGF1 showing the effects of the approach

[gatorcane]

I find it amazing how these storms can often recurve along the shape of the US coastline getting close but not enough to bring them onshore. Models hinting at that outcome here for Dorian.

[CFLHurricane]

I find it amazing how these storms can often recurve along the shape of the US coastline getting close but not enough to bring them onshore. Models hinting at that outcome here for Dorian.

As noted by others- there’s a reason the southeast coastline is shaped the way it is.

[SapphireSea]

I find it amazing how these storms can often recurve along the shape of the US coastline getting close but not enough to bring them onshore. Models hinting at that outcome here for Dorian.

Indeed, the every day shape and strengths of the Bermuda ridge favors recurves close to the coast. Much like how Florida weather is dominated by it with easterly winds meaning storms out west and SW winds from trofs affecting east coast metros. It's the anomalies that come to bite.

[wx98]

Would not be surprised at all to see recon confirm that Dorian is considerably weaker. Based on the EWRC and the degraded appearance I wouldn’t be surprised if it was just a minimal Cat 4.

[drewschmaltz]

They jumped the gun. According to NHC forecasts, we have a little tropical storm force gusts in Orlando. The parks were not happy about having closed for nothing for Matthew's impact on Orlando. As of 10:30 am, there has been no decision to close the parks. Chances are good they won't say anything until Tuesday if they do.

Just to clarify for anyone reading this, inland FL counties of Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake are now officially in a tropical storm warning, so that will likely guide decisions to close stuff.

Wow? T.S. Warnings? Seems a bit "heavy-handed" given that confidence in the 1-3 day forecast path seems to be increasingly solid. Here in the storms' west quad, it appears that sustained winds will remain well under 30mph. Granted, any strong squalls that develop within banding features that form over land would well bring fast bursts of intense rain and strong gusts. I'll frankly be surprised if any inland location records sustained 40 + mph winds assuming the center remains roughly 40 miles east of the Titusville area

Please remember, absolutely no opinionated comments towards emergency decisions made by local governments. We are allowed so much freedom to analyze the storm and the models. It’s a great community. But please respect and withhold comment on emergency procedures.

[sikkar]

Recon almost in the eye.

[Hurricane Andrew]

For reference purposes...

https://poweroutage.us

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Airboy]

Looks to me the cloud tops maybe getting colder again.

[Airboy]

Center
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 939.3 mb (27.74 inHg)

[NDG]

Pressure is way up, possibly only near 940mb per the recon.

[Bostonriff]

https://i.imgur.com/CuRoCko.gif

Super, do you have a link to this satellite loop source?

I like their IR color scheme.