ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

A sustained wind of 40mph at Juno Pier. Wind field is getting larger.

Happy Birthday Aric!

Expecing decent winds at the coast but not very far inland.

So far my parents are staying in Cocoa Beach. Concrete block house well above sea level..

Hopefully no more surprises from Dorian, doubtful give his history.

[toto]

Does the Bahamian govt have an agency like FEMA to help people with rebuilding and cleanup?

It is a member of the [British] Commonwealth of nations... does that include disaster help ??

[plasticup]

Freeport Airport

https://twitter.com/SilentGrace2/status/1168596103756996617

What is the perspective from that second picture? Where is the cameraman?

[Jr0d]

Freeport Airport

https://twitter.com/SilentGrace2/status/1168596103756996617

I cant imagine a worse case scenario for Grand Bahama.

Quite a few sailors in Key West are hoping to bring boats full of relief supplies plus man power as soon as weather permits.

[plasticup]

Does the Bahamian govt have an agency like FEMA to help people with rebuilding and cleanup?

It is a member of the [British] Commonwealth of nations... does that include disaster help ??

No, it does not. But there is a Caribbean hurricane insurance group to which they belong, and a pan-Caribbean group of nations which includes mutual cooperation agreements for disasters like this.

[supercane4867]

Apparently there are some neighborhoods and one airport on the eastern tip of Grand Bahamas as shown on satellite map, which have went through over 10 hours of intense eyewall.

Hopefully no one is staying in these houses, they are likely no longer existent by now

[psyclone]

This storm might change the shape of some of those island coastlines. New passes may be cut or existing ones filled in. Many of the current or former passes around my area on the gulf owe their existence or termination to big storms. fascinating and very dynamic.

[Innotech]

im pretty sure those eastern cays will be changed dramatically with 20 feet of surge and ten hours of cat 5 winds.

[plasticup]

Freeport Airport

https://twitter.com/SilentGrace2/status/1168596103756996617

I cant imagine a worse case scenario for Grand Bahama.

Quite a few sailors in Key West are hoping to bring boats full of relief supplies plus man power as soon as weather permits.

Anyone planning to do this ought to coordinate with local authorities. Those sorts of efforts, while well-intentioned, often create as many problems as they solve.

[KC7NEC]

Freeport Airport

https://twitter.com/SilentGrace2/status/1168596103756996617

I cant imagine a worse case scenario for Grand Bahama.

Quite a few sailors in Key West are hoping to bring boats full of relief supplies plus man power as soon as weather permits.

Anyone planning to do this ought to coordinate with local authorities. Those sorts of efforts, while well-intentioned, often create as many problems as they solve.

True. especially since it is a different country. It's not quite the same as the "Cajun Navy" in Harvey.

[Smurfwicked]

IR presentation looking better over past couple hours. Looks like a NNE wobble at the end of the loop.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[TheDreamTraveler]

It seems the weakening this morning was largely due to upwelling and land interaction? I wondered if it could re-intensify since it still has the warm Gulf Stream ahead of it and shear/dry air are low for now.

I'm pretty sure the ERC weakened it too but just barely. Definitely think it's from land interaction and the upwelling mostly. I'm thinking it has a chance to intensify again when it's under the gulf stream and not upwelled water. But it looks like shear is supposed to increase once it gets farther north.

[AlabamaDave]

So much larger now, wow!

[chaser1]

Freeport Airport

https://twitter.com/SilentGrace2/status/1168596103756996617

What is the perspective from that second picture? Where is the cameraman?

Agreed; was like looking at a drone shot photo verses a close up of some porch or ground level. I'm assuming that the flooding pic was from some point at the airport though

[wxman57]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

[chaser1]

This storm might change the shape of some of those island coastlines. New passes may be cut or existing ones filled in. Many of the current or former passes around my area on the gulf owe their existence or termination to big storms. fascinating and very dynamic.

Charlie for one comes to mind. Didn't it create or change a major cut on Sanibel or Captiva while heading NE towards Port Charlotte?

[PandaCitrus]

Yeah, I think the first picture is a drone shot of the airport and the second was a picture from the airport, perhaps the control tower.

There are other videos on twitter of the area right now.

 https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1168540276949954560

[tronbunny]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

You may be on to something.
SW quadrant

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 19:12:30Z
Coordinates: 26.633N 78.583W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,844 m (9,331 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 967.5 mb (28.57 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 309° at 103 kts (From the NW at 118.5 mph)
Air Temp: 13.5°C (56.3°F)
Dew Pt: 10.3°C (50.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 105 kts (120.8 mph)

NE Quadrant

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 19:02:30Z
Coordinates: 27.050N 78.183W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,851 m (9,354 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 969.7 mb (28.64 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 107 kts (From the SE at 123.1 mph)
Air Temp: 12.5°C (54.5°F)
Dew Pt: 12.5°C (54.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 108 kts (124.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 87 kts (100.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 41 mm/hr (1.61 in/hr)

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

That is likely, along with land interaction. I'd probably go with 105 kt for the current intensity - make no mistake though, it's still an extremely dangerous storm, and much larger. The SFMR is useless while it's near land.

[PandaCitrus]

Downtown Freeport a storm shelter is flooding.

 https://twitter.com/juancpedreira/status/1168607586637307906