ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

There is zero doubt there is currently a north movement right now, maybe even a hint of NE, unless it's just eye wobbling.

[johngaltfla]

It really looked like Florida was going to take a direct hit from a major hurricane either Central or South Florida. Just 4 days out models showed this. The question was Central or South Florida. Even folks on TWC gave recurve east of Florida a low probability outcome. Fast-forward a few days and the track looks a lot different. Still a chance Dorian landfalls or gets close enough to cause major issues for Central and North Florida but the trend is looking better today with the models, As we can see there is a reason why the Florida east coast from Stuart north has not seen a major hurricane landfall on record. The coastline is from SSE to NNW. It takes the perfect setup and all stars need to align. Everything was there but the ridge was just a bit too weak. One thing that is not so comforting - the waters off of South Florida have just shown they can support a monster with the right conditions. All of us in South Florida can breathe a sigh of relief but the question remains when it will be our turn and the luck run out?

Our luck has run out before.

It will eventually run out again.

It is Cape Verde season, the time when some of the deadliest storms in history have hit Florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

Wouldn’t that allow for slightly more westerly movement? It being weaker.
Would this be the correct steering map at that intensity?

https://i.imgur.com/3DSb4YK.gi

This one:

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

Wouldn’t that allow for slightly more westerly movement? It being weaker.
Would this be the correct steering map at that intensity?

https://i.imgur.com/3DSb4YK.gif

that chart shows a net effect of no movement as it's caught in a calm upper wind flow between the 2 highs. The models forecasted this well. The southerly flow around the Atlantic high is the one that will pick it up as the midwestern ridge stops progressing eastward and weakens.

[sponger]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

Wouldn’t that allow for slightly more westerly movement? It being weaker.
Would this be the correct steering map at that intensity?

https://i.imgur.com/3DSb4YK.gif

Levi talked about that yesterday!

[mpic]

It's truly amazing how Florida lucked out on this!! For them to luck out, the timing had to be perfect, and it was...............Such awesome news!!!!!

Exactly what Houstonians said when Ike headed toward Mexico before it changed its mind and took the roof off my house north of Galveston.

[Michele B]

Just got hit with a small band with 30mph gusts. Coconut Creek.

West of Avon Park, and we actually had a little squall come through. Quite heavy rain, and a slight wind, too. Only 5 minutes, but still...

[chaser1]

I see N.E. motion ('course when I suggest "motion", we're probably talking about a speed slightly faster then my grandson's pet turtle)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

...BTW, until Dorian moves past your latitude, keep an eye.

A great rule of thumb.

[CronkPSU]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[Vdogg]

Just took a big wobble to the NE. Eye has completely cleared land and appears to be contracting. Wonder if it’s about to start moving again.

[Vdogg]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Pressure dropped. It’s strengthening again...

[supercane4867]

It's indeed stationary. Not moving an inch

[Smurfwicked]

There is zero doubt there is currently a north movement right now, maybe even a hint of NE, unless it's just eye wobbling.

Thought so too earlier but now I think its just the the changes to the eye wall (expanding and not being so perfectly round). Looks stationary right now. Looking like this stall might last awhile.

[CronkPSU]

NHC certainly not giving the ALL CLEAR in the 5PM discussion

Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.

[Bluehawk]

By the grace of God, so far S FL has been spared. By the selfless work of amazing meteorologists and honest weather enthusiasts as those on this forum, many people prepared well for this storm, and are tearfully watching how we seem to be spared, at what seems to be the terrible expense of Bahamas. I do not see reasons to rejoice that we "lucked out", I just see reasons to be soberly thankful. Less than 200 miles away from us, those in S FL, people are dying, or fighting for their lives, or have had the most horrible 30 hours of their lives, and it is not over. In the same time, this storm does not seem to be done. Many people on the east coast continue to watch it fearfully. Some have been forced to leave their homes, not knowing what, if anything, they will find when they come back - that feeling is heartbreaking; I know it personally, as we evacuated for Irma. Again, more reasons to be sober and, for those who are so inclined, prayerful. I know the poster did not mean anything bad, so please forgive me if I sound judgmental; I am not. I want to rejoice too. I do! I'm just trying to offer a different perspective. Thank you all on this forum who have kept us informed, educated, and sane through this, and I know you will continue to do so!

[Michele B]

First time post. I love reading you guys. I also have a friend who is a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. I always have the urge to bother him at times like these, but it's best to let him be.
It's been raining off and on here in the Eastwood section of East Orlando

Welcome, Jenin!

It would be nice to know what your friend thinks about this one.....once this is all over, of course.

WHAT were they thinking, and what was going on.....

[LarryWx]

I don’t know if it is just a wobble or not, but I have to be honest and say that I like seeing what almost looks like a little NE drift over the last 30 minutes or so. It may not be more than a wobble, but the longer he sits here without an appreciable westerly component of motion, the better I feel for the Melbourne to Charleston corridor. That’s not saying all clear by any means. But I certainly like what I’ve seen over the last 12 hours trackwise as far as how that affects the chances of a major impact in that corridor. I can’t overemphasize the importance that Dorian is further east than just about all earlier guidance for the current time. The consensus had him at least at the longitude of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.
Regardless, keep a watchful eye for any surprise decided moves to the NW through tomorrow.

[TorSkk]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Pressure dropped. It’s strengthening again...

it hasn't

[Vdogg]

What’s the record for longest period of sustained hurricane winds in one location?