ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

I was one that was on board with it would come to Florida but I'm feeling better now with the stall and seemingly certainty of models. NHC wisely put that statement in there just to keep everyone in Florida alert to the small possibility

It is NOT a small possibility. The cone represents the 66th percentile of the historical error. That means one in three storms will move OUTSIDE the cone. And Florida is INSUDE the cone. The odds of the core coming onshore, extrapolating only from their historical error, is greater than 20%. Probably quite a bit greater.

[delta lady]

Yeah, I think the first picture is a drone shot of the airport and the second was a picture from the airport, perhaps the control tower.

There are other videos on twitter of the area right now.

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1168540276949954560

Actually, I am pretty certain it’s the other way around. I just spent about 15 minutes examining an arial view of the airport. The control tower is separate (has its own road) from the main terminal building and is indeed the photo on the left. What I can’t find is a porch like feature on the terminal or any of the other buildings, but the window video sort of matches up to it. The tall black vertical lines you see in the background (video) are poles for nighttime lighting that the control tower building parking area does not have.

[xironman]

I’m very happy that Fla’s likely off the hook, but we are very nervous in North Topsail Beach, NC, as many are still recovering from Florence and we are constantly battling erosion. Our dune structure was significantly weakened and destroyed by Florence in many sections.

Personally I would not get started with FL being off the hook, it has been an ongoing argument. As for NC I think the big thing is there is a likely hood of epic flooding, maybe more than Mathew. I think NC is getting tired of epic flooding every year.

[aperson]

I was one that was on board with it would come to Florida but I'm feeling better now with the stall and seemingly certainty of models. NHC wisely put that statement in there just to keep everyone in Florida alert to the small possibility

It is NOT a small possibility. The cone represents the 66th percentile of the historical error. That means one in three storms will move OUTSIDE the cone. And Florida is INSUDE the cone. The odds of the core coming onshore, extrapolating only from their historical error, is greater than 20%. Probably quite a bit greater.

Since the track would fall outside of the cone 1/3 of the time. 1/6 of the time it would lie to the west of the cone instead of the east if the forecasting error is normally distributed, or 17% of the time.

[northjaxpro]

I have been a longtime member on.here and I am not alone in my sentiments about this. It is called being responsible and being careful to not mislead the general public. Storm2K is a very popular site and I have talked to several other analysts and pros in the businesss who do frequent this site. Just be mindful of the things you say on these forums!

Totally agree. Also a long time member (15 year anniversary of registering is next week). I just know what it is like to volunteer moderate a rowdy, popular forum and I think we should be appreciative of that hard work and not barking things at mods.

Just about to mark 9 years as a Storm2K member. Thanks Buck. I richly appreciate our moderators, who I have conversed with most of them during my time as a member. It is a very tough task monitoring the activity and goings on of a popular site like this one.

Overall they are the best with running this site. I am pround to a member, and as a member, I want the reputation of this site to remain as the standard bearer as the authority on the internet for all things weather, and to continually attract more and.more people, pros , analysts, and amateurs, and people who just love weather all around the world.

[Ivanhater]

Cut the back and forth. This is a historic storm and emotions are high. Please think before you post.

Exactly..Bahamas are leveled...see twitter and FB posts

Good to see you ROCK!

Man, so much for a dead season and only start of September.

Dorian still wobbling around, hopefully moves away from the Bahamas asap

[plasticup]

I was one that was on board with it would come to Florida but I'm feeling better now with the stall and seemingly certainty of models. NHC wisely put that statement in there just to keep everyone in Florida alert to the small possibility

It is NOT a small possibility. The cone represents the 66th percentile of the historical error. That means one in three storms will move OUTSIDE the cone. And Florida is INSUDE the cone. The odds of the core coming onshore, extrapolating only from their historical error, is greater than 20%. Probably quite a bit greater.

Since the track would fall outside of the cone 1/3 of the time. 1/6 of the time it would lie to the west of the cone instead of the east if the forecasting error is normally distributed, or 17% of the time.

And round it up a little, because Florida is inside the cone

edit: you also don't have to assume a normal distribution. Any non-skewed distribution would mean the same thing.

[AutoPenalti]

The classic 99L scare. It’s always this invest.

Well...

[1900hurricane]

I'm not measuring much difference in size on my workstation as far as the core. There are some spiral bands extending out farther, but the wind field is still below-average in size.

The RMW is about twice the size it was before it hit Abaco and I think the hurricane wind field is larger too.

Twice the size would still be below average. It was a small hurricane. Not quite as small as Charley, but small. I see the NHC update still lists 125 kt winds, about the highest speed measured so far by the plane at flight level. NHC won't indicate significant weakening so that FL residents don't relax.

Agreed about the size. Using best track data, NHC indicates that the r34 and RMW have increased some, but the other wind radii have remained more or less the same. Integrated Kinetic Energy has come up some, but even with NHC'a possibly generous intensity at 18Z, not by a significant amount.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168642941109374976

[ozonepete]

Cut the back and forth. This is a historic storm and emotions are high. Please think before you post.

Exactly..Bahamas are leveled...see twitter and FB posts

Good to see you ROCK!

Man, so much for a dead season and only start of September.

Dorian still wobbling around, hopefully moves away from the Bahamas asap

Good to see both of you! Michael you are missed here.

[tolakram]

Live visible as the sun sets.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1039&y=952

[lrak]

Is Dorian pulling all that convection to its NE towards it?

[tolakram]

One more

9-2-2019 21:56Z

[PandaCitrus]

Drive through of Abaco Island damage. I think this is Marsh Harbour but I could be wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/10000021533569 ... 86?sfns=mo

[CryHavoc]

Live visible as the sun sets.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1039&y=952

https://i.imgur.com/aJxohT1.png

Remarkably healthy and symmetrical, at least visually, for it's current pressure reading.

[Ivanhater]

Exactly..Bahamas are leveled...see twitter and FB posts

Good to see you ROCK!

Man, so much for a dead season and only start of September.

Dorian still wobbling around, hopefully moves away from the Bahamas asap

Good to see both of you! Michael you are missed here.

You too Pete! Good to see the old gang!

Dorian is moving slowly, hopefully moves enough away to remove Grand Bahama out of the worst. September has come in like a lion, I'm afraid.

[hipshot]

Drive through of Abaco Island damage. I think this is Marsh Harbour but I could be wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/10000021533569 ... 86?sfns=mo

Looks like an F5 tornado went through there. I can't believe all the people walking around barefoot with all those possible power lines laying on the ground!!

[edu2703]

Convection starting to wrap the eye. Very strong convection on the southern half

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

[ozonepete]

Good to see you ROCK!

Man, so much for a dead season and only start of September.

Dorian still wobbling around, hopefully moves away from the Bahamas asap

Good to see both of you! Michael you are missed here.

You too Pete! Good to see the old gang!

Dorian is moving slowly, hopefully moves enough away to remove Grand Bahama out of the worst. September has come in like a lion, I'm afraid.

Yeah September is looking bad with all of those invests out there.

And yes so Dorian has at least drifted a little NNE in the last couple of hours. Though we know stationary storms drift every which way until they make a real move, any drift northward will help them. Clearly we also want no westward drift of any kind for Florida's sake. Let's hope the NNE drift becomes a trend.