ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Remember folks, the Bahamas does not need a bunch of sailboats showing up loaded with random household items and used clothes. They don't need UPS'd boxes of bottled water. The logistics will interfere with large, meaningful relief efforts. The big relief agencies prefer cash for a reason.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/29/54686656 ... s-to-match

I know it feels good to help, but if you can (and I need to get moving on this too) please just give money.

[drewschmaltz]

Need next set of models.

I don't see how it goes north right now if it's stalled. Needs to be going west to hit that steering

I checked yesterday's models (24 hours ago) and they pretty much all have Dorian right where he is... I respect your thoughts here but to say something is happening that wasn't forecasted is a bit hair raising. It wasn't modeled this way 48+ hours ago - no - but models that have Dorian stalled right here still lift him out.

That's not to say it's going to go as scripted. But I saw you say "link to a model that shows this". And to that I say the GFS and Euro from 24 hours ago had it just this way.... If anything Dorian is little more West. But northern progression seems on-script.

We recently got word 50 deaths on abaco. As I mentioned - we have friends there and a house there. It's complete devistation. Plus no food or water or gas... Anyone going to help now would probably be a hinderence. So, I also saw your post about donating $100. Thank you! I donated too.... They need us. And Grand Bahama... My God.

[supercane4867]

Freeport hospital flooded

 https://twitter.com/hectordvector/status/1168651036191600640

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I know it's barely on Bahamas radar still, but I created a display that lets you view the full radar loop of Dorian in the Bahamas. Unfortunately the display flickers when loading images and even after loading sometimes. I haven't figured that out.

The display updates automatically with new imagery downloaded to my site and then loaded in the viewer from the stored imagery on my site.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

[StormPyrate]

Remember folks, the Bahamas does not need a bunch of sailboats showing up loaded with random household items and used clothes. They don't need UPS'd boxes of bottled water. The logistics will interfere with large, meaningful relief efforts. The big relief agencies prefer cash for a reason.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/29/54686656 ... s-to-match

I know it feels good to help, but if you can (and I need to get moving on this too) please just give money.

Cant say I agree totally. Post Katrina the Cajun Navy was born, and they were blocked by the "established" responders in some cases.
The efforts should be coordinated, but help is help

https://www.bahamas.com/hurricane-relief

[JtSmarts]

 https://twitter.com/RMS/status/1168633930930622467

[eastcoastFL]

Any power outages yet in Florida from fpl?

[Nimbus]

What first appeared as a NNE drift and then a northward motion, now seems to be part of some trochoidal motion. Question is, where will this 8-ball begin to really move. WNW or NNW?

Freeport observation out past the outer eyewall showed steady wind direction shifts from 360 down to 315 but in the last hour they bobbed back up to 317. Its still "stationary", so I'm a little disappointed Freeport has to endure this for so long.

[SunnyThoughts]

Water still has to be just piling in on those north facing shores of the Western part of Grand Bahama. Can't even imagine surge and wind for that long. Cmon mother nature...lift on out so some help can get to these people.

[Raebie]

Water still has to be just piling in on those north facing shores of the Western part of Grand Bahama. Can't even imagine surge and wind for that long. Cmon mother nature...lift on out so some help can get to these people.

That's the worst part. Nothing can be done until he moves his ass. Including rescues. Tragic situation.

[tronbunny]

https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1168649408071651328?s=20
 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1168649408071651328

[Highteeld]

This is one of the worst hurricane damage I’ve ever seen worldwide. Even worse than Irma

https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/1168639807997796354

You know a hurricane has made a statement when palm trees are snapped and uprooted

[CrazyC83]

Remember folks, the Bahamas does not need a bunch of sailboats showing up loaded with random household items and used clothes. They don't need UPS'd boxes of bottled water. The logistics will interfere with large, meaningful relief efforts. The big relief agencies prefer cash for a reason.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/29/54686656 ... s-to-match

I know it feels good to help, but if you can (and I need to get moving on this too) please just give money.

Also we still have 3 months left in hurricane season...it is certainly possible there could be another threatening storm.

[aperson]

Basically a ring of subsidence around Dorian at 200mb. Is this the visual look of "pumping the ridge" that people love to describe?

[birdwomn]

This is one of the worst hurricane damage I’ve ever seen worldwide. Even worse than Irma

I do not think anyone in "modern history" has ever seen the prolonged period of high winds & surge that those little islands have taken - and its not finished yet. So very sad.

[BrandonJay21]

I have been obsessively tracking this storm for a week now... now that it’s only a dayish from maybe deciding to visit us in Florida, I’m more confused than I’ve been all week. Poop or get off the pot Dorian! (... but for real, give those poor islands a break. )

[otterlyspicey]

Is there any known reason Dorian started to lift north and then wobbled back south? This is absolutely devasting for anyone on Grand Bahama.

[drezee]

Storm2K Family and Friends...dont freak out...The EWRC is in the final stages. The old eye is going to wrap around the new larger eye. It is in the NE part of the new eye. that means it will likely swing W to maybe WSW for a few frames. The overall eye is moving WNW. Stay calm...

I told people to not freak out...explanation above

[drewschmaltz]

Is there any known reason Dorian started to lift north and then wobbled back south? This is absolutely devasting for anyone on Grand Bahama.

Here's my .02....

Its a really fluid forecast. AND it depends on the storms strength/depth. The depth has fluctuated plus the eye has grown in size and gone through some sort of EWRC. The wobble of the eye due to size and breakdown of the wall coupled with multiple steering forces and varying strengths and depths lead to this small deviation.

[supercane4867]

Still haven't heard anything from Josh yet. I'm starting to feel a little worried about his safety.