ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherOrKnot]

Palm Beach County Schools are closed Wednesday as well now as a result of Dorian’s slow movement.

[Nimbus]

Starting from a dead stall he might even wobble off NNE a little.
Some of the model runs 36 hours ago had some latitude gain above 27 N overnight tonight.
The cloud tops have been warming and the sustained winds at the Freeport observation station have dropped back to 46 knots.
Early stall may not equate to an earlier movement north but it might move out early.

[southerngale]

Dorian looks quite a bit weaker than 125 kts, maybe 100 kts now? The longer it remains stalled, the greater the chance that track farther off the Florida coast. Better for Florida that it isn't moving yet. Not good for the Bahamas, though. Josh and Jim Edds are going to have quite a story to tell next spring at the NTWC in S. Padre.

Have you heard anything about Josh? I've been trying to find something on Twitter, but haven't had any luck. I realize they don't have service, but some messages and news are coming from there. My gut says he's ok, but a little confirmation would be nice, like we got with Jim.

[PandaCitrus]

Are we seeing another eyewall replacement cycle with an even larger eye? There's a large gap of precipitation west of the eye on radar.

[CronkPSU]

10:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[birdwomn]

Full day of visible on Dorian: https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 4668739584

[CronkPSU]

Are we seeing another eyewall replacement cycle with an even larger eye? There's a large gap of precipitation west of the eye on radar.

was just about to ask the same thing...

[Bluehawk]

Palm Beach County Schools are closed Wednesday as well now as a result of Dorian’s slow movement.

On the other hand, Broward ones have not announced anything for Wednesday, while Broward County Government Emergency Services announced they intend to start their regular bus routes tomorrow at noon, and possible reopen the airport as well (final decision to be made at 10 am I think, if I remember correctly).

[Tailspin]

Have you heard anything about Josh? I've been trying to find something on Twitter, but haven't had any luck. I realize they don't have service, but some messages and news are coming from there. My gut says he's ok, but a little confirmation would be nice, like we got with Jim.

Yeah been thinking the same thing. I would have though he would have a sat-phone
as back up in his kit.

[NDG]

The northern half of Dorian that is over water seems to be growing with quite a few new thunderstorms wrapping around

How does that shallow water there support a storm like this? It can't upwell, but it has to be pushing the water around enough that some of the bays there are dry (and others way overfull).
South side of Grand Bahama is incredibly deep (several thousand feet), north side is like 1-10 feet.

Those shallow waters north of Grand Bahama were very warm in the upper 80s to begin with before Dorian moved in, those waters are so shallow that big ships don't sail through it, I don't think is deeper than 20 or 30 feet so they are warm all the way down to the bottom so there is no cold water underneath to upwell, the only way to cool down is by ambient temp which looks to be in the upper 70s, which is not going to do the trick that fast.

[gatorcane]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

Close to 0%. You can see it digging over Southern GA and headed SE (area of black on WV image). Then there is another shortwave over Canada that dips down and reinforces the trough later this week:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[CrazyC83]

The damage really reminds me of Haiyan...even though they were completely different in that Haiyan was a quick hitter in an area very prone to storm surge, while Dorian built it up and tore everything to shreds over time.

[SconnieCane]

Here's a long replay of Matthew's Florida radar if anyone wants to compare (since a few folks were comparing it to Matthew's approach):

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?234

Dorian looks a lot better organized on radar than Matthew did, but Matthew was larger overall.

Great radar view of Matthew's concentric eyewalls with the decaying inner one wobbling around inside the large outer one.

[BobHarlem]

It looks more ragged for sure, but 10 hours of absolute no movement I didn't expect. (I figured a loop or something)

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1168706940488339457

[drewschmaltz]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

Close to 0%. You can see it digging over Southern GA and headed SE (area of black on WV image). Then there is another shortwave over Canada that dips down and reinforces the trough later this week:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

Crazy to watch how fast everything moves in those 4 hours..... Except Dorian.

[Bigwhitey]

I worked in Panama City after Michael and Florida is very blessed Dorian didn’t rake the spine of Florida like some models were showing last week. The devastation would have been unbelievable. Michael was bad enough.count your blessings and donate something toward Bahamas relief efforts Storm2k family

[eastcoastFL]

My weather station at home in palm city just recorded a few gusts of 33 mph and it’s been raining pretty hard on and off.

[GCANE]

946.6mb
SFMR: Cat 2 winds

[Sciencerocks]

[aperson]

(ref: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions)