ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

Have you heard anything about Josh? I've been trying to find something on Twitter, but haven't had any luck. I realize they don't have service, but some messages and news are coming from there. My gut says he's ok, but a little confirmation would be nice, like we got with Jim.

Yeah been thinking the same thing. I would have though he would have a sat-phone
as back up in his kit.

Just saw on Twitter that he is ok.
@wxbrenn

[drewschmaltz]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/7582/tm7QyI.gif

I know it's getting picked up & I know it's just a wobble but even still.... Last night's video with Levi and this gradual reduction in strength make me wonder if Dorian will move SW tonight before getting picked up late morning. And those last few frames have me thinking even more. There were some models that showed the SW dip before N then NE. I'll go out on a limb here and say 2am update will have him SW of current position by a non trivial amount.

[Palmcitycane]

My weather station at home in palm city just recorded a few gusts of 33 mph and it’s been raining pretty hard on and off.

I'm in Palm City also. I was just noticing that the last 15 or 20 minutes our winds have been picking up. Other than the occasional rain band, it's been very still most the day till now.

[TallyTracker]

946.6mb
SFMR: Cat 2 winds

That sitting in one place is really taking a toll on Dorian now. Cat 2 seems about right based on the current satellite presentation. If it sits here for another 6-12 hours, I am beginning to wonder if the eye might collapse and it weakens below hurricane strength. Would that be possible?

[aperson]

Have you heard anything about Josh? I've been trying to find something on Twitter, but haven't had any luck. I realize they don't have service, but some messages and news are coming from there. My gut says he's ok, but a little confirmation would be nice, like we got with Jim.

Yeah been thinking the same thing. I would have though he would have a sat-phone
as back up in his kit.

Just saw on Twitter that he is ok.
@wxbrenn

This tweet?
 https://twitter.com/WxBrenn/status/1168705226070810624




Which goes to this tweet?
 https://twitter.com/MurkyWanders/status/1168703885982208001




Which goes to this tweet that's a picture of a post from this very forum:
 https://twitter.com/RyanToemmes/status/1168705896110858241





This is exactly how misinformation spreads around.

[CrazyC83]

946.6mb
SFMR: Cat 2 winds

That sitting in one place is really taking a toll on Dorian now. Cat 2 seems about right based on the current satellite presentation. If it sits here for another 6-12 hours, I am beginning to wonder if the eye might collapse and it weakens below hurricane strength. Would that be possible?

I doubt it would get that low. It does add the question: once it starts moving and the Gulf Stream enters the picture, could Dorian re-intensify?

The SFMR was higher, but questionable. We need to see the other quads, but 100 kt might be as high as it is now - and that may be generous.

[birddogsc]

Radar seems to show that an EWRC may be underway again.

[BobHarlem]

946.6mb
SFMR: Cat 2 winds

That sitting in one place is really taking a toll on Dorian now. Cat 2 seems about right based on the current satellite presentation. If it sits here for another 6-12 hours, I am beginning to wonder if the eye might collapse and it weakens below hurricane strength. Would that be possible?

I doubt it would get that low. It does add the question: once it starts moving and the Gulf Stream enters the picture, could Dorian re-intensify?

The SFMR was higher, but questionable. We need to see the other quads, but 100 kt might be as high as it is now.

How accurate Is SFMR in shallow water like Dorian is over?

[Ian2401]

pretty gusty here in WPB. id say sustained around 30mph with gusts up in the 40-45mph range. not bad

[J3r3my]

https://i.imgur.com/HnhizJq.gif

This is the exact view I use when tracking, and I've been "hit" my Matthew and Irma to the point of extensive damage to waterfront amenities. I evacuated for both, had an impressive storm surge but probably not deadly, although Matthew looked like a bomb had gone off.

The SFWMD site works the best in the short term should I stay or should I go mode. I"m still on the fence for this damn turtle on LSD.

[storm4u]

11pm. 130 mph

[CrazyC83]

11pm. 130 mph

Very generous IMO.

[SunnyThoughts]

#Breaking: Just in - A US coast guard has seen arriving at the island of #Abaco at the #Bahamas islands to provide assistance and to report the damage on the island

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1168627448755511297

( was posted 5 hours ago)

[sbcc]

Have you heard anything about Josh? I've been trying to find something on Twitter, but haven't had any luck. I realize they don't have service, but some messages and news are coming from there. My gut says he's ok, but a little confirmation would be nice, like we got with Jim.

Yeah been thinking the same thing. I would have though he would have a sat-phone
as back up in his kit.

Just saw on Twitter that he is ok.
@wxbrenn

Hi MsBee!

Further down, others are saying the info about Josh is unverified:

 https://twitter.com/MurkyWanders/status/1168712641268858881

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168683966938976256

How reliable is this source? Seems a bit exaggerated to me

[edu2703]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.9°N 78.5°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[HDGator]

Radar seems to show that an EWRC may be underway again.

The organization of the core and eyewall hasn't looked very good in the past few hours.
It almost looks like an ERC is trying to choke off the inner eyewall.
Maybe someone with more experience in this could chime in?

[BobHarlem]

https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168683966938976256

How reliable is this source? Seems a bit exaggerated to me

Not at all, it ventures into wild conspiracy theory territory in some of the articles.

[drewschmaltz]

https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168683966938976256

How reliable is this source? Seems a bit exaggerated to me

A very politically charged post came out almost as the back of the eye wall was exiting saying there were floating bodies going out to sea. That may have very well been true. But I've stopped clicking on links to them. Personal opinion: not reliable.

[supercane4867]

6 hour zoomed loop. The eye is completely stationary