ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Carolinagirl18]

Dorian is behaving unfortunately like the movie " Groundhog Day".

Haven't we seen this before with the eyewall sitting over the same area this time yesterday?

NEVER NEVER EVER have I seen a storm sit for so long in the same area, let alone a recorrd setting, powerful Cat 5 tropical cyclone, and still a major Cat 3 as of right now.

This historic cyclone Dorian continues his history of going against what was initially forecasted for him to do all throughout its whole lifespan. Talk about a storm with a mind of his own!!! No doubt about.it!

I remember Hurricane Elena in 1985 , which was stalled out in the Northeast GOM for a long time, before finally moving west/northwest to impact the panhamdle and N CENTRAL Gulf region.

But this situation with Dorian is just unprecedented

My continual prayers for the people of the Island nation.of the Bahamas concerrning this unimaginable catastrophic event, which is still ongoing!!

Florence did it last year for 3 days over us

[Bostonriff]

Wind speeds going down pressure going up at the C-MAN station on the west end of Grand Bahama. Another sign Dorian on the move.

Or it's continuing to weaken in place. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is behaving unfortunately like the movie " Groundhog Day".

Haven't we seen this before with the eyewall sitting over the same area this time yesterday?

NEVER NEVER EVER have I seen a storm sit for so long in the same area, let alone a recorrd setting, powerful Cat 5 tropical cyclone, and still a major Cat 3 as of right now.

This historic cyclone Dorian continues his history of going against what was initially forecasted for him to do all throughout its whole lifespan. Talk about a storm with a mind of his own!!! No doubt about.it!

I remember Hurricane Elena in 1985 , which was stalled out in the Northeast GOM for a long time, before finally moving west/northwest to impact the panhamdle and N CENTRAL Gulf region.

But this situation with Dorian is just unprecedented

My continual prayers for the people of the Island nation.of the Bahamas concerrning this unimaginable catastrophic event, which is still ongoing!!

Florence did it last year for 3 days over us

It did yeah, but Florence was not a record setting Category 5 tropical cyclone stalled out like Dorian was either, and still a major Cat 3 currently.

Thus why this is UNPRECEDENTED.

[Carolinagirl18]

Dorian is behaving unfortunately like the movie " Groundhog Day".

Haven't we seen this before with the eyewall sitting over the same area this time yesterday?

NEVER NEVER EVER have I seen a storm sit for so long in the same area, let alone a recorrd setting, powerful Cat 5 tropical cyclone, and still a major Cat 3 as of right now.

This historic cyclone Dorian continues his history of going against what was initially forecasted for him to do all throughout its whole lifespan. Talk about a storm with a mind of his own!!! No doubt about.it!

I remember Hurricane Elena in 1985 , which was stalled out in the Northeast GOM for a long time, before finally moving west/northwest to impact the panhamdle and N CENTRAL Gulf region.

But this situation with Dorian is just unprecedented

My continual prayers for the people of the Island nation.of the Bahamas concerrning this unimaginable catastrophic event, which is still ongoing!!

Florence did it last year for 3 days over us

It did yeah, but Florence was not a record setting Category 5 tropical cyclone stalled out like Dorian was either, and still a major Cat 3 currently.

Thus why this is UNPRECEDENTED.

I feel for the people there. And no we didn't have a cat 5 but the flooding we had and homes destroyed was more than we have ever seen. 7 feet of water in my son's home and he was not even close to being in a flood zone. I'm in land in carteret co and our little town was surrounded by water for days no way in or out. It was not expected took us all by surprise here. Now we have the track coming right over us again and so many people are still out if homes.

[northjaxpro]

Florence did it last year for 3 days over us

It did yeah, but Florence was not a record setting Category 5 tropical cyclone stalled out like Dorian was either, and still a major Cat 3 currently.

Thus why this is UNPRECEDENTED.

I feel for the people there. And no we didn't have a cat 5 but the flooding we had and homes destroyed was more than we have ever seen. 7 feet of water in my son's home and he was not even close to being in a flood zone. I'm in land in carteret co and our little town was surrounded by water for days no way in or out. It was not expected took us all by surprise here. Now we have the track coming right over us again and so many people are still out if homes.

Whenever Dorian FINALLY decides to move, whenever that is, my prayers to you all up that way concerning this killer monster storm. This cyclone has continually confounded all of us doing exactly opposite of what we thought it was going to do the entire time of itsi lifespan!!

Praying that maybe Dorian wlll do the same by confounding us one more time and spare you and everyone.up along the SE U.S. Coast by staying .just offshore and OTS.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like Dorian Finally starting to creep northward.

http://tropicwatch.info/doriannorth090320190800z.gif

Wobbling. Still stationary..no direction...

[GCANE]

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

[tropicwatch]

Wow a third plane is up and on the way.
(actually 4, the synoptic flight is up too)

[GCANE]

Looks like the front is pushing dry air into Dorian.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the front is pushing dry air into Dorian.

Would have undercut the circulation in about 8 more hours but it does look like Dorian is going to wobble north enough for them to declare a motion in the 11 AM update.

[toad strangler]

Wouldn’t it be something for Dorian spin down to a depression where he is.

[GCANE]

PV Streamer from the front getting a little too close.
Picking up 15 knots of overall shear.
Dry air intrusion and upwelling.
Dorian may get knocked down a notch or two soon.

[Vdogg]

What's the possibility of Dorian re-strengthening once it hits warmer water, given that the sheer is increasing?

[GCANE]

Tons of mid-level dry air at the panhandle from AF304 drop.

[AdamFirst]

Eye has clouded over on satellite.

[wxman57]

Initial reports from both planes inside Dorian are that winds are around 95 kts, but there could be a few pockets of higher wind. I think one of planes reported the formation of a layer of ice on the ocean surface due to all the upwelling of cool water, but that cannot be confirmed. Though Dorian may now be "only a Cat 2", all hurricanes are deadly. I can't imagine what it's like in the northern Bahamas. I do think that Dorian might gain a little strength back as it moves away from the cooler water, but much will depend on the status of its core. Threat of hurricane-force wind to the east coast of Florida appears to be diminishing. Threat to Carolinas may be increasing. Dorian may hot have time to re-intensify before increasing upper-level winds begin impacting it.

My 16th day shift in a row starts now. Forecasting for 7-8 TCs around the world.

[dukeblue219]

Initial reports from both planes inside Dorian are that winds are around 95 kts, but there could be a few pockets of higher wind. I think one of planes reported the formation of a layer of ice on the ocean surface due to all the upwelling of cool water, but that cannot be confirmed.

Can that actually happen (regardless of whether this is accurate today or not)? I guess it would be super-cooled saltwater from the deep coming up and freezing freshwater rain on the surface?

[Bostonriff]

I think one of planes reported the formation of a layer of ice on the ocean surface due to all the upwelling of cool water, but that cannot be confirmed.

*snort*

[Vdogg]

7 am update puts Dorian at 27.0 N. It says movement is stationary but I do believe this is the first time Dorian has crossed 27, indicating some north movement has begun.

[northjaxpro]

What's the possibility of Dorian re-strengthening once it hits warmer water, given that the sheer is increasing?

Well, you would have thought that given the fact that he is about to traverse over the Gulf Stream Current over the next 24 hours, the cyclone in normal circumstances wouid be able to take advantage of that with ideal conditons to intensify.

However, because Dorian has just sat and found a home over Grand Bahama Island for more than a full day now, condiiions are no longer ideal. We have upwelling actually now weakening the cyclone and now dry air entraining.and deforming its western eyewall.

Whenever Dorian FINALLY decides to move we will see how much traversing over the Gulf Stream will help the cyclone to get his legs back underneath him and possibly re-intensify .

Personally, I hope he just remains a shell of his old self. He has brought more than enough devastation and harm in his wake already. God forbid he does again going forward is my prayer!!