ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

Initial reports from both planes inside Dorian are that winds are around 95 kts, but there could be a few pockets of higher wind. I think one of planes reported the formation of a layer of ice on the ocean surface due to all the upwelling of cool water, but that cannot be confirmed.

If this was posted by anyone else I would be cracking up with laughter. But since it's you... is that even possible? I know hurricanes are heat-exchangers, but that just seems ridiculous. The latent heat of fusion of water (for the phase change from 0 celcius water to 0 celcius ice) is 334 joules per gram. That is three times more than is needed to cool the water from 27 degrees to 0 degrees celcius (27 * 4.184 J/g = 112.968 J/g).

Honestly, doesn't pass the sniff test.

[GCANE]

PTC7 and 92L are both cutting off TPW in-feeds to Dorian.
Given the close proximity to land, Dorian does not have a large area of hot ocean water to work with for WISHE.
Gulf Stream will provide some fuel, but its a small area, so it won't help much for any type of significant strengthening.
Dorian still has a lot of momentum.
Recon and satellite showing high rain rates.
AF307 just measured over 60 mm/hr.
Could be more or less a slow wind down for Dorian today.
IMHO, I can't see this being a major much longer though.

[southerngreen]

Dorian is behaving unfortunately like the movie " Groundhog Day".

Haven't we seen this before with the eyewall sitting over the same area this time yesterday?

NEVER NEVER EVER have I seen a storm sit for so long in the same area, let alone a recorrd setting, powerful Cat 5 tropical cyclone, and still a major Cat 3 as of right now.

This historic cyclone Dorian continues his history of going against what was initially forecasted for him to do all throughout its whole lifespan. Talk about a storm with a mind of his own!!! No doubt about.it!

I remember Hurricane Elena in 1985 , which was stalled out in the Northeast GOM for a long time, before finally moving west/northwest to impact the panhamdle and N CENTRAL Gulf region.

But this situation with Dorian is just unprecedented

My continual prayers for the people of the Island nation.of the Bahamas concerrning this unimaginable catastrophic event, which is still ongoing!!

Florence did it last year for 3 days over us

It did yeah, but Florence was not a record setting Category 5 tropical cyclone stalled out like Dorian was either, and still a major Cat 3 currently.

Thus why this is UNPRECEDENTED.

We waited out Elena in Hillsborough county and it was nasty squalls that ruined a weekend, but I don't remember any casualties. It was a tease. This thing is a juggernaut. (Dorian "Gray" and uglier by the minute!) Wind and water at "pleasant" levels exhaust us when we're having fun - I can't imagine spending 2 days Cat 3-5 in this and coming out of it with an ounce of sanity.

[GCANE]

Initial reports from both planes inside Dorian are that winds are around 95 kts, but there could be a few pockets of higher wind. I think one of planes reported the formation of a layer of ice on the ocean surface due to all the upwelling of cool water, but that cannot be confirmed.

If this was posted by anyone else I would be cracking up with laughter. But since it's you... is that even possible? I know hurricanes are heat-exchangers, but that just seems ridiculous. The latent heat of fusion of water (for the phase change from 0 celcius water to 0 celcius ice) is 334 joules per gram. That is three times more than is needed to cool the water from 27 degrees to 0 degrees celcius (27 * 4.184 J/g = 112.968 J/g).

Honestly, doesn't pass the sniff test.

Also, with waves probably exceeding 40', ice couldn't exist on the surface.

[Chris90]

I'm 99.9% sure that ice comment was a very clever joke, but I'll admit I had a moment of wondering if it was possible.
I've spent my entire life in the Midwest, and where I'm located we get hit by the whole "polar vortex" thing almost every winter at least once. It takes quite a bit for our rivers and lakes to freeze, and the deeper the water, the harder it is to freeze. I don't think it's possible for a hurricane to upwell water that would freeze and produce ice.

Then again, there have been some really weird weather phenomenon.

[GCANE]

I think this is about the worse I have ever seen.
God have mercy.

https://m.facebook.com/groups/207427727 ... /?sfnsn=mo

[GCANE]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/kaaIkYujOWY[/youtube]

[GCANE]

Center of Dorian's warm core has dropped from about 165mb yesterday to about 200mb.

[Jr0d]

It's apparent the trough has dug down. This should make the storm start moving north.....if not I don't know

God have mercy

[Vdogg]

Center of Dorian's warm core has dropped from about 165mb yesterday to about 200mb.

https://i.imgur.com/boWDjNb.gif

What does this mean for a layman?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

No northern component yet, but definately wobbling in that direction.

Its being torn apart...a fitting end.

[wxman57]

Initial reports from both planes inside Dorian are that winds are around 95 kts, but there could be a few pockets of higher wind. I think one of planes reported the formation of a layer of ice on the ocean surface due to all the upwelling of cool water, but that cannot be confirmed.

Can that actually happen (regardless of whether this is accurate today or not)? I guess it would be super-cooled saltwater from the deep coming up and freezing freshwater rain on the surface?

Ha! No. It was meant as a joke. Come on, Guys!

[supercane4867]

Dorian still refuses to move. This is brutal for the islands

[GCANE]

Center of Dorian's warm core has dropped from about 165mb yesterday to about 200mb.

https://i.imgur.com/boWDjNb.gif

What does this mean for a layman?

Weakening

[Jr0d]

Efforts to organize an Armada for relief to the Bahamas is going on today here in Key West by the Conch Republic Navy. I've been told all vessels bringing relief supplies will have clear entry and free dockage.

[Vdogg]

As per the 8 am update, Dorian is FINALLY on the move. Currently NW at 1 mph.

[tolakram]

Live IR, easier to see the center.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=6372.82958984375&y=5352.8486328125

Live visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1081.409423828125&y=923.4317016601562

[Bunkertor]

Eye closed. I suppose, this is not another cycle

[GCANE]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a naked swirl in 24hrs.

[Bunkertor]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a naked swirl in 24hrs.

Came to my mind, yesterday, either.