ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

".....Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not
quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization..."

Because it's a hair-ball (choking on convergent dry air).

[HurricaneFrances04]

This twitter thread from Levi is an interesting read:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176867557606866944

[Weatherboy1]

I work in financial markets and I can honestly say the back and forth between "It's falling apart!" to "Look, it's firing up!" reminds me of people who react to every little tick in the price of a stock. Just like you shouldn't buy every time a stock goes up 5 cents or sell every time a stock goes down by the same amount, you shouldn't react to every minor pulse up or pulse down in convection. Not trying to be mean or anything. But overall, not much has changed. This is a modest TS that (IMO) probably spins up into a low-end hurricane in the next 48 hours … then turns back west and goes that way for a while. After that? Who knows! Too far out to say

[TheStormExpert]

Not writing Karen off just yet since it forecasted to sharply turn west or wsw east of The Bahamas, but I could definitely see why dry air will be a huge issue in the next few days, along with northerly shear thanks to the building ridge just north of it (similar setup with Barry).

On a side note it has been rather dry and pleasant with lower humidity and dew points in the 60’s here in S.FL for several days now. Looks like the rainy season MAY HAVE ended early!

[sikkar]

29.1 kts sustained.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=E&tz=STN

[wx98]

I’ll tell you, Jerry and Karen are a pathetic pair

[GCANE]

Culprit maybe Jerry is sucking high TPW air away from Karen.
Doesn't give Karen a chance to converge the moist LL air on a broader scale.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree that Jerry's influence is putting a lid on Karen. But, I do think Karen is a bit of a simmering pot... small convective bursts that will eventually take hold. Way different than she appeared this morning, however... looked like she was really ramping up a few hours back. I still think there is a possibility that they merge, and meander.

[blp]

Culprit maybe Jerry is sucking high TPW air away from Karen.
Doesn't give Karen a chance to converge the moist LL air on a broader scale.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5


https://i.imgur.com/rjJTT5n.png

I think that is a good point on what is happening now. My question is why the models do not strengthen after Jerry leaves the picture.

[GCANE]

The ULL in the eastern Bahamas is interacting with Karen at 500mb level.
Its creating a mid-level jet over Karen.

[GCANE]

I agree that Jerry's influence is putting a lid on Karen. But, I do think Karen is a bit of a simmering pot... small convective bursts that will eventually take hold. Way different than she appeared this morning, however... looked like she was really ramping up a few hours back. I still think there is a possibility that they merge, and meander.

GFS does strengthen it as Karen moves west into the Bahamas.
Trouble is the ULL that is now in the east Bahamas tracks N and then NE leaving a PV streamer in Karen's path.
Karen tracks into this in the west Bahamas where it gets shredded by the PVS.
You can see the dynamics of this on the 355K Potential Vorticity graphics.

[wx98]

The ULL in the eastern Bahamas is interacting with Karen at 500mb level.
Its creating a mid-level jet over Karen.

https://i.imgur.com/wEqdWe3.png

The random ULL strikes again!

[SFLcane]

The ULL in the eastern Bahamas is interacting with Karen at 500mb level.
Its creating a mid-level jet over Karen.

https://i.imgur.com/wEqdWe3.png

It's basically in deep southerly flow into the remnants of Jerry. Definitely not favorable for curving up.

[1900hurricane]

This twitter thread from Levi is an interesting read:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176867557606866944

That is a good thread for sure. I particularly like this one.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176867568285552641



Can't have rising motion and convection if the low level air isn't convergent. Such cases are actually somewhat common in the Western Pacific during cases of very strong monsoon troughing. Even in the absence of shear and dry air, early monsoon trough systems are often south weighted convectively. That's because that's where the best convergence is, and low level air can actually become divergent where the circulation splits off from the monsoon trough. I noted a case earlier this season early in Super Typhoon Lekima's lifecycle. The modeled case here with Karen is an even more stark example.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1158102523695292417

[idaknowman]

On the last three forecast points (the westward trend), the NHC doesn't show the time and day. Why is that?

[jlauderdal]

We are all focused on Karen but the real US threat may be coming from the Western Caribbean in early October which is more in line with climo. See models thread.

yep, Floridians shouldn't forget about the talkin tropics thread, oct 1 right around the corner...season over for the Texans, see you next summer

[Aric Dunn]

Solid circ. Pressure 1003. Holding its own.

Some north easterly shear that should decrease when karen begins to slow down.

[Hammy]

Looks like Karen's circulation has actually tightened up quite a bit over the last few hours, despite the shear, as the cloud motion is better defined than earlier on the close-up NASA loop.

[Jr0d]

Karen looks terrible. It looks like another vort formed and got pulled into the convection to the north west of the exposed 'main' vortex.

Maybe she'll look better tonight, barely hanging on as a storm at this point.

[mpic]

We are all focused on Karen but the real US threat may be coming from the Western Caribbean in early October which is more in line with climo. See models thread.

yep, Floridians shouldn't forget about the talkin tropics thread, oct 1 right around the corner...season over for the Texans, see you next summer

I hope so but still seeing chatter about some heavy thunderstorms and waiting for my roof to be fixed. Dorian really was a nail biter and Karen needs to hurry on out.