ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1168898108413173762

[invest man]

[quote="GCANE"]VDM just in
Eye diameter 40nm, open SW
957mb
Warm core: 7C @ 700mb
Dewpoint: 10C @ 700mb[/quote

Isn’t this an expanding eye typical of EWRC and weakening which will expand the wind fields?

[hipshot]

https://twitter.com/BBCAmos/status/1168840756607488000

WOW this is insane. Like 70% of the island is gone???

I don't know about "gone" but it is certainly flooded.

[CronkPSU]

11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 3
Location: 27.1°N 78.6°W
Moving: NW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[supercane4867]

Dorian's inner core is falling apart. Upwelling have taken its toll. But it's also becoming very large now

[supercane4867]

Hurricane watches up for NC coastline

[caneman]

After seeing what PR went through after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, I want to stress that non government relief agencies are your LAST good option for relief efforts. You send five boats over to the Bahamas with supplies and you have an unorganized relief effort, possibly never reaching those in most need. You have the crew of those five boats needing limited resources, ie water, food, GAS, etc. Find a good relief agency and send MONEY. It's great to want to help but there are already heros who do this and they have done it many times...as part of a well organized relief organization. You and your sailboat are not the answer....They need PLANE LOADS of relief items, not boat loads.

This is not what this is. From the page: " My name is Capt. Richard Peeples. This is my third time doing relief efforts for all our friends in the Bahamas. My first time was several years ago when Hurricane Floyd went through the Abacos. 4 years ago, I spearheaded relief efforts for San Salvador when Hurricane Joaquin went through there. We raised 250K for San Salvador. I have partnered up with the people listed above for our efforts this time. We will being getting donation of supplies and money to ship supplies directly into the Abacos. We are trying to take care of everyone in the Bahamas. We have already contracted with Seacor shipping and have our first shipment going over on Sat. This is a massive under taking by a bunch of people willing to give our time and resources to help. If you feel this isn't for you then please, don't give to our cause. There are numerous others popping up everywhere. But please don't hamper our efforts. The people of Abaco need our help and we're going to get it to them quickly. We are also working with the Church of God national in the US to get supplies and items over to Abaco."
I do not wish to get into any controversy. As one of the mods has stated, everyone should do their own due diligence. For what's worth it, one of the things I always check, when giving to a humanitarian organization is their overhead. A lot is to be said about government relief agencies in other countries, but this is not the place. I am not advocating for one or for another and anyone should do their own research. Info is all I wanted to give.

This sounds like exactly the sort of well-intentioned amateur efforts that established agencies agree interfere with and sometimes detract from disaster relief. NPR has a very thoughtful article about this from Hurricane Harvey that I think you would really enjoy. The most common failures of amateur efforts are poor coordination with other resources, a narrow scope (failing to deliver what is needed to where is it needed most), and especially a failure to support long-term recovery. You may not like that more formal organizations spend money on "overhead," but that spending often makes sure that the aid is delivered efficiently, effectively, and sustainably. Money spent on planning is not money wasted.

As you say, perhaps we should break this discussion out into a separate disaster-relief thread. I think that has been done in the past for similarly catastrophic storms.

For everyone one of those stories there are 2 or 3 of corruption and the masses suffering from a slow moving train. Example:
The action comes a week after Gov. Ricardo A. Rosselló of Puerto Rico resigned following a series of protests that demonstrated widespread frustration with government corruption, the economy and a poor response to Hurricane Maria in 2017.

See New Orleans as well and I'm sure as well as many others.

To say that people should lay back and not help I believe is is foolish. I belong to a church group that has helped countless many and they are a drop in the bucket. These individuals can be a God send.

As stated though, this isnt the place for this discussion. If mods would like to create a relief thread, I'd love to discuss there. This will be my last comment on it in this thread. .

[dspguy]

https://twitter.com/BBCAmos/status/1168840756607488000

WOW this is insane. Like 70% of the island is gone???

I don't know about "gone" but it is certainly flooded.

Gone isn't entirely inaccurate. If the ocean washes over an island due to rising water levels or sinking land, it is "gone" from our terrestrial viewpoint.

But yeah, the water will recede back to the ocean. I do wonder how much the coastline eroded though.

[birddogsc]

Radar loop shows indications that the storm is trying to close the eye as it slow moves away from Grand Bahama. The returns on the west side are greatly diminished. Also, it's within range of the "hi-res" returns, so we'll have a good look at this side.

[Bluehawk]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/lc4DIFI.gif

source: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

I am looking at that outer band, the one still south of the Keys. As the hurricane moves NW (confirmed by NHC: 320 DEGREES), it'll get a little closer to where I am, before it moves further. Dorian's western side looks harmless enough to my totally novice, untrained eye. But that outer band... Not so much. It seems to me that we will be getting that band, if it survives, but I have no idea when, or what kind of winds / rain to expect. I'll be in a situation in which I assume many people in PB are: living in PB, working somewhere south (in my case, Broward. In my husband's, MD). So I'm trying to get all info I can, looking at the radar, at the NHC, and on the weather apps (which have failed miserably to predict the bands so far).

[GCANE]

VDM just in
Eye diameter 40nm, open SW
957mb
Warm core: 7C @ 700mb
Dewpoint: 10C @ 700mb[/quote

Isn’t this an expanding eye typical of EWRC and weakening which will expand the wind fields?

Low dewpoint, no remarks by recon, no indication on radar, no measured FL max winds on approach, open eyewall.
There is no EWRC.
It's falling apart from dry-air intrusion.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/BBCAmos/status/1168840756607488000

WOW this is insane. Like 70% of the island is gone???

I don't know about "gone" but it is certainly flooded.

Hard to imagine that there's not thousands that must be cold, wet and without shelter or potable safe drinking water. Has anyone confirmed if the westernmost hotels and resorts have electricity? I imagine some on the far west part of Grand Bahama are equipped with generators but there's only so much stored gas that could keep those going. Even still, the storm surge pounding that the western part of the island took must have been epic. It would be amazing if all the larger buildings/hotels that were exposed to the storm surge and pounding waves, were all able to escape without their structural integrity compromised. Some were no doubt built at a lower elevation then others.

[Hurricaneman]

VDM just in
Eye diameter 40nm, open SW
957mb
Warm core: 7C @ 700mb
Dewpoint: 10C @ 700mb[/quote

Isn’t this an expanding eye typical of EWRC and weakening which will expand the wind fields?

Low dewpoint, no remarks by recon, no indication on radar, no measured FL max winds on approach, open eyewall.
There is no EWRC.
It falling apart from dry-air intrusion.

And severe upwelling

[txwatcher91]

VDM just in
Eye diameter 40nm, open SW
957mb
Warm core: 7C @ 700mb
Dewpoint: 10C @ 700mb[/quote

Isn’t this an expanding eye typical of EWRC and weakening which will expand the wind fields?

Low dewpoint, no remarks by recon, no indication on radar, no measured FL max winds on approach, open eyewall.
There is no EWRC.
It's falling apart from dry-air intrusion.

It's likely a result of the cool SST's that it has been over for 24+ hours now.

[northjaxpro]

Down to 110 mph Steong Cat 2.

Yeah dry air continues getting entrained into the western eyewall. It is been that way since I woke up at 4 a.m. this morning.

Storm continues to expand as expected in size. Tropical Storm force winds will expand as far as 170 miles from the eyewall by this evening.

[NDG]

Glad to see Dorian start moving again and away from the Bahamas finally little by little so that rescuers can start the process.

[HurricaneEnzo]

While there is a lot of dry air around this looks to be upwelling induced more than anything.

[leggy77]

WOW this is insane. Like 70% of the island is gone???

I don't know about "gone" but it is certainly flooded.

Gone isn't entirely inaccurate. If the ocean washes over an island due to rising water levels or sinking land, it is "gone" from our terrestrial viewpoint.

But yeah, the water will recede back to the ocean. I do wonder how much the coastline eroded though.

And not diminishing the disaster in any way, but the majority of the land shown underwater is uninhabited lowlands, for obvious reasons.

[GCANE]

Down to 110 mph Steong Cat 2.

Yeah dry airontinues getting entrained into the eestern eyewall. It is been thzt way since I woke up at 4 a.m. this morning.

Storm continues to expand as expected in size. Teopical Storm gorce winds will ecpand as far as 170 miles from the eyewall by this evening.

Hope you are breathing a bit easier JAX.

[Airboy]

Falling apart fast. Lets see if it will recover a bit when it gets more "food" over new and deeper water free from the islands.