ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

It may well start reorganizing a little over deeper warmer water, but it's got a good bit of continental air to deal with.

[northjaxpro]

That didn't take long for the eye to close again. Is on its way back to Cat 3, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/KSKALd1.gif

Definitely feeling the warmer water.

Yeah it will be back to Cat 3 this evening in all likelihood.

[chaser1]

I'm recalling Ike. Big, lumbering, dangerous, and the core never recovered.

I don't really remember but to what extent did increasing upper level shear play a part there? To your point though, I think back to Hurricane David in '79. Actually landfalled up around Ft. Peirce (I think). I was in Kendall at the time and although the storm's approach was from the S.E. and not as close to Miami, you would've been hard pressed to even know there was a T.S. nearby much less a hurricane. That storm gave and took a beating from hitting the D.R. and never quite recovered either (the hurricane with "no western half")

Actually David briefly landfalled at Palm Beach .

Then if not Ft. Pierce, i'm pretty sure that it must have been Palm beach that did in fact record Cat. 2 winds? What was fascinating about that storm was the extent how it's western side experienced so little wind well west of center. Generally the case for the weaker west side of a storm but even more pronounced in David

[plasticup]

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.

The missing person list is an informal list maintained on Google Docs that was born from a Facebook post. It's a great list but the requirements to be put on the list is that anyone in the world can add you. And anyone can check that you were found. So....

Thanks, but I meant a link to the radio station.

Not sure which radio station he is listening to, but here is a radio station (which also puts out short written summaries of their programs), which mentions him. I don't know what their sources are. Make of it what you will.

https://970universal.com/2019/09/03/sig ... morgerman/

[psyclone]

Dorian has made that "old hurricane" transition....from an atmospheric black hole to a much less intense, but broader system. these seem to be much more durable systems, resistant to both strengthening and filling...but packing a larger wind field which spreads hazardous coastal water action over a much larger area. It's really a good thing the system has trended a bit more east compared to expectations a day or 2 ago..

[sponger]

Slowest Atlantic moving storm on record!


https://twitter.com/BagalueSunab/status ... 46/photo/1

[southerngreen]

The missing person list is an informal list maintained on Google Docs that was born from a Facebook post. It's a great list but the requirements to be put on the list is that anyone in the world can add you. And anyone can check that you were found. So....

Thanks, but I meant a link to the radio station.

Not sure which radio station he is listening to, but here is a radio station (which also puts out short written summaries of their programs), which mentions him. I don't know what their sources are. Make of it what you will.

https://970universal.com/2019/09/03/sig ... morgerman/

Basically says no one has seen or heard from him in 2 days.

[Aric Dunn]

15z steering has nosed the ridge slightly farther east again

[CryHavoc]

Dorian has made that "old hurricane" transition....from an atmospheric black hole to a much less intense, but broader system. these seem to be much more durable systems, resistant to both strengthening and filling...but packing a larger wind field which spreads hazardous coastal water action over a much larger area. It's really a good thing the system has trended a bit more east compared to expectations a day or 2 ago..

I dunno, I think Dorian was pretty durable -- went on strengthening for what, 72 hours with no EWRC and a nearly unabated increase in intensity from Cat 1 to tied for the 2nd strongest winds in Atlantic Ocean history?

[artist]

Latest vortex

135
URNT12 KNHC 031711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 03/16:37:00Z
B. 27.38 deg N 078.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 959 mb
E. 205 deg 2 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C40
H. 63 kt
I. 208 deg 26 nm 16:29:30Z
J. 296 deg 80 kt
K. 209 deg 28 nm 16:29:00Z
L. 74 kt
M. 318 deg 23 nm 16:44:00Z
N. 054 deg 85 kt
O. 314 deg 46 nm 16:50:30Z
P. 12 C / 3050 m
Q. 14 C / 3048 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 3805A DORIAN OB 26
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 057 / 23 NM 13:10:00Z

[toad strangler]

Treasure Coast seeing more frequent squalls

[NDG]

Tracking the AF's recon coc fixes from 11:33z to the latest 16:37z fix Dorian is now moving at 4.2 mph in average in a heading of 342 degrees, so NNW.
I am thinking a NW heading should start in a little bit as a quick rise in heights over the Carolinas is taking place right now into tonight before the next trough moves over the NE US.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Chaser I remember David like yesterday. I was a teenager then in '79 but he moved up as Cat 1 moving 40 miles just off the Florida East Coast. We had squalls all during the approach with heavy rain on the western eyewall and winds gusting to 50 mph inland from the coast up til the time he passed our latitude. There was some minor surge issues and costal flooding to my memory as well.

Also David occured just like now, on Labor Day weekend.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1168939136981581824

[StormingB81]

What are the chances for the Florida coast does it depends where it regroups and takes off from?

[jlauderdal]

Treasure Coast seeing more frequent squalls

we are having our highest winds of the event in the last hour, wind field expanding

[tallywx]

Latest vortex

135
URNT12 KNHC 031711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 03/16:37:00Z
B. 27.38 deg N 078.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 959 mb
E. 205 deg 2 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C40
H. 63 kt
I. 208 deg 26 nm 16:29:30Z
J. 296 deg 80 kt
K. 209 deg 28 nm 16:29:00Z
L. 74 kt
M. 318 deg 23 nm 16:44:00Z
N. 054 deg 85 kt
O. 314 deg 46 nm 16:50:30Z
P. 12 C / 3050 m
Q. 14 C / 3048 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 3805A DORIAN OB 26
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 057 / 23 NM 13:10:00Z

Do these winds even support cat 2?

[artist]

Treasure Coast seeing more frequent squalls

we are having our highest winds of the event in the last hour, wind field expanding

Yeah, same here. Had our first flickers of power in the last hour or so.

[Raebie]

The missing person list is an informal list maintained on Google Docs that was born from a Facebook post. It's a great list but the requirements to be put on the list is that anyone in the world can add you. And anyone can check that you were found. So....

Thanks, but I meant a link to the radio station.

Not sure which radio station he is listening to, but here is a radio station (which also puts out short written summaries of their programs), which mentions him. I don't know what their sources are. Make of it what you will.

https://970universal.com/2019/09/03/sig ... morgerman/

Thanks! Although I'm concerned about Josh, I'm really just looking for a good local news source.

[CrazyC83]

Latest vortex

135
URNT12 KNHC 031711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 03/16:37:00Z
B. 27.38 deg N 078.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 959 mb
E. 205 deg 2 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C40
H. 63 kt
I. 208 deg 26 nm 16:29:30Z
J. 296 deg 80 kt
K. 209 deg 28 nm 16:29:00Z
L. 74 kt
M. 318 deg 23 nm 16:44:00Z
N. 054 deg 85 kt
O. 314 deg 46 nm 16:50:30Z
P. 12 C / 3050 m
Q. 14 C / 3048 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 3805A DORIAN OB 26
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 057 / 23 NM 13:10:00Z

Do these winds even support cat 2?

The 99 kt FL winds would support a 90 kt intensity, although that would be generous. Based only on the data, I would go with 80 kt, but that may send mixed messages. They may knock it down in post-analysis but they aren't doing it too fast operationally in case it takes off again. Same thing happened in Irma - they only brought it to 110 kt over Cuba but in reality it was 95 kt (before going back up to cat 4).