ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

The circ is still moving south of due west.


And at this rate. There will be two seperate systems considering how much mid level energy is so far away from this. Lol

Looks like the GFS solution with the energy splitting...mid level center up the east coast and LLC up into the SE GOM.

Wait, if they split in two could both of them develop?

Kind of like identical twins?

[Frank P]

Looking at the GOES-East Wavelength: 3.90 µm Channel: 7 Resolution: 2 km at a fast speed, the LLC of 98 L appears to still be heading off to the west or just south of due west... looks like the mid level circulation is well to the east of it... some convection is making a feeble attempt to fire off near the LLC, albeit not of any significance...

[northjaxpro]

I agree. LLC is moving slightly south of due west this evening.

[gatorcane]

Radar out of Miami clearly shows the LLC moving W to WSW west of Andros

[northjaxpro]

Radar out of Miami clearly shows the LLC moving W to WSW west of Andros

It does indeed. I have been monitoring Miami NWS Radar through the evening.

[Hurricaneman]

Radar out of Miami clearly shows the LLC moving W to WSW west of Andros

It does indeed. I have been monitoring Miami NWS Radar through the evening.

That circulation may die with no convection over it

[NDG]

Radar out of Miami clearly shows the LLC moving W to WSW west of Andros

It does indeed. I have been monitoring Miami NWS Radar through the evening.

That circulation may die with no convection over it

Is doing exactly what the Euro forecasts, for this weak LLC to keep moving towards the upper Keys by tomorrow morning, during the day start becoming elongated and weakening as a new LLC develops further north near Cape Canaveral tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

[northjaxpro]

Radar out of Miami clearly shows the LLC moving W to WSW west of Andros

It does indeed. I have been monitoring Miami NWS Radar through the evening.

That circulation may die with no convection over it

That indeed is a possibility. DMAX may give the LLC a boost a bit later. We will monitor.

[Aric Dunn]

a ship just popped up about 60 to 80 miles from the center. and the pressure is 1013. surrounding areas are 1017 or 1018.

[tropicwatch]

Still needs convection. Convection with 98L and the Gulf of Mexico tw, looks pretty pitiful right now.

[USTropics]

4-day timelapse of 98L:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/z2R6D9mnNNk[/youtube]

[jconsor]

Nice Miami long-range radar loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[GCANE]

Latest SCAT

[northjaxpro]

Weak 1013 mb LLC aprox 50 miles offshore of Miami at 06Z ths morning. Still moving west. Lacking convection.

00z EURO reforms the system off Cape Canaveral, then intensifies it to be a hurricane well out to sea off the Mid Atlantic /New England by early Tuesday.

0Z GFS contnues the split of 98L into 2 entities, moving the current LLC across South Florida into the SE GOM and developing the midlevel vort off Cape Canaveral and moves it slowly northeast to off the NC coast by early Monday

[GCANE]

Latest Multi Sat

[GCANE]

ULL has moved off the GA coast with an extended trough along FL Coast

[GCANE]

Mid level is pretty dry

[GCANE]

Looks like its not going anywhere anytime soon.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the ULL off the GA coast and its trough axis really brought a nice punch of mid- level dry air over our region and will play a bit of an inhibiting factor for 98L to organize and intensify at least in the next 24 hours.

Also, quite an impressive" thumb ridge" shown on the steering map above, extending west near 90 degrees Longitude early this morning.

Definitely the weak LLC currently just off shore of Miami has no where to go but west into the SE Gulf in the immediate short term.This weak LLC is forecast to dissipate by late tomorrow.

It will be interesting how quickly the new LLC will form based on the models forecasting this will happen off the SE U.S. Coast beginning later this weekend.

[NDG]

Little by little the GFS is trending towards the Euro in that the weak LLC approaching the upper keys will eventually die and for a new stronger LLC form further north and head towards the NE.
I said yesterday that the environment over the far eastern GOM will not be as good as east of FL because of the position of the trough between the two UL ridges.