ATL: KAREN - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Absolutely in love with the 18z GFS.

Tropical Genesis in far SE Caribbean, NNW thru Puerto Rico, gets halfway to Bermuda, stops, then heads SW and strikes northern Cuba before heading back into the Caribbean.

Assignment for history buffs: please find an analog to this track

Inez would be the closest parallel. But that was much earlier in the season.

Hurricane Inez 1966 was late Sept into early October

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF turning to the WNW between 96-108 hours., 969MB

[gatorcane]

950MB heading WNW:

[canes92]

What does Euro show?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What does Euro show?

Bends it back WSW just north of the Bahamas (before curving back out again).

[aperson]

What does Euro show?

18z euro doesn't run far enough to get to the interesting divergence. 99L is north of PR as a weak system at t=90 at the end of the run.

[gatorcane]

[chris_fit]

[wx98]

https://i.postimg.cc/Prkc9hFt/hwrf-sat-IR-99-L-22.png

Sort of has the buzzsaw look...

[SootyTern]

I go away from the computer for a few hours and I know there has been a change in some of the models just by the page count

[AnnularCane]

https://i.postimg.cc/Prkc9hFt/hwrf-sat-IR-99-L-22.png

Sort of has the buzzsaw look...

Yeah...I forgot this was the models thread for a minute there.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/ljEz5fM.png

TVCN turns WSW near 26N...

[cycloneye]

Look at the bend to the left from majority of models.

[floridasun78]

https://i.imgur.com/ljEz5fM.png

that new Models run?

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/ljEz5fM.png

TVCN turns WSW near 26N...

Yep:

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/ljEz5fM.png

TVCN turns WSW near 26N...

Yep:

https://i.postimg.cc/rsKt8vpg/storm-99.gif

There is something very interesting about this map. Notice that CLP5, which is Clipper, basically "climatology" model, ends up at the south central Cuban coast. And so does the GFS! Just slightly different routes ...

[Blown Away]

00z Intensity Guidance keeps 99L as weak TS and begins to increase to near Cat 1 after day 4... So the crazy turns do seem to keep intensity down...

[GeneratorPower]

I’m not sure intensity has such a great impact on track. I think there are obviously situations where it does have a big impact. But most often we see ECMWF and GFS track be very good even when intensity isn’t well represented.

[AtlanticWind]

00z Intensity Guidance keeps 99L as weak TS and begins to increase to near Cat 1 after day 4... So the crazy turns do seem to keep intensity down...

HWRF has 99L an intense Hurricane in 5 days
SHIPS has it at about hurricane intensity in 5 day
LGEM has it as a strong Tropical Storm in 5 days
EURO has it a mid range Tropical storm but strengthening

Pretty good support for a strong system.

[icallstorms]

00z Intensity Guidance keeps 99L as weak TS and begins to increase to near Cat 1 after day 4... So the crazy turns do seem to keep intensity down...

HWRF has 99L an intense Hurricane in 5 days
SHIPS has it at about hurricane intensity in 5 day
LGEM has it as a strong Tropical Storm in 5 days
EURO has it a mid range Tropical storm but strengthening

Pretty good support for a strong system.

And we can’t forget 99L is tied to the Kelvin wave.