ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Tracking the AF's recon coc fixes from 11:33z to the latest 16:37z fix Dorian is now moving at 4.2 mph in average in a heading of 342 degrees, so NNW.
I am thinking a NW heading should start in a little bit as a quick rise in heights over the Carolinas is taking place right now into tonight before the next trough moves over the NE US.

High cirrus is expanding NW and penetrating the first front which means light steering currents and perhaps less shear for 24 hours? I was thinking Dorian would probably reintensify to a cat 3 over the gulf stream once the first shortwave passed. The trough will be reamplified fairly soon but we had a few model runs earlier showing a loop east of Daytona-Jacksonville. There was only one NAVGEM run that showed a single persistent front digging Dorian out sheared.

[austin06]

Yeah Chaser I remember David like yesterday. I was a teenager then in '79 but he moved up as Cat 1 moving 40 miles just off the Florida East Coast. We had squalls all during the approach with heavy rain on the western eyewall and winds gusting to 50 mph inland from the coast up til the time he passed our latitude. There was some minor surge issues and costal flooding to my memory as well.

Also David occured just like now, on Labor Day weekend.

I was a teenager as well and living in Pompano Beach a few miles inland. It was the very first hurricane that came that close in my growing up years in so Fl. There were steady, strong, winds all night (made it hard to sleep). Strongest storm I'd experienced at that point. It did come inland somewhere in Palm Beach county. My now husband got the last flight out of Palm Beach International the day before.

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1168935377308127232

[jhpigott]

Western edge of rain shield getting real close to EC FL coadt

[PandaCitrus]

There are pictures from the outlying cays and many newer oceanfront structures fared surprisingly well with minimal damage damage. There was a video on facebook of a woman in her oceanfront home and the stairs were gone, windows blown out, interior trashed a bit but the structure was sound.

First Aerial Pictures from Marsh Harbour

https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168936311782367233

https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168935463526309892

https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168935923528208390

Well there is clearly catastrophic damage .. but there are a bunch of buildings standing so good news for potential survivors.

[CryHavoc]

https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168935463526309892

Every time I go to say "that looks like tornado damage!" I remind myself that Dorian was as strong as an F3 tornado (158–206 mph), but lasted for almost an entire day. So no surprise that many buildings are stripped to the slab, really.

Horrifying.

Not really. Hurricane winds and torandic winds are not the same, and comparing them directly is inadvisable. FWIW you're also using the old Fujita scale -- 185mph winds on the new scale would be high end EF4.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168935463526309892

Every time I go to say "that looks like tornado damage!" I remind myself that Dorian was as strong as an F3 tornado (158–206 mph), but lasted for almost an entire day. So no surprise that many buildings are stripped to the slab, really.

Horrifying.

So true. By the way, as I pour over most of the photo and especially video links that you guys are posting here, I just wanted to put out a broad "THANK YOU" for posting them here. As hard as they are to look at and watch, they're equally mesmerizing in terms of the real-world impact and damage that was inflicted. It's easy to get lost in data, maps, and models but some of these video's depicting conditions during and immediately after the storm really bring to light what a Catagory 5 hurricane stalled over in the Bahamas did to those islands and the community there.

[plasticup]

It looks like just about every wooden home in Abaco is gone.
I am still shocked how many homes were built with wood in the Bahamas, I know they are the cheapest way to go, but they are definitely the cheapest way to go in the long run if you want to still have a home after a Major Hurricane.
In Cuba every new home during the past 70 years or so had to be built with reinforced concrete, even the roof.

27% of Abaco island was below the poverty level. Sometimes it's not about doing the right thing, it's just about doing what you can afford.

[CW0262]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

[Sciencerocks]

[terstorm1012]

It looks like just about every wooden home in Abaco is gone.
I am still shocked how many homes were built with wood in the Bahamas, I know they are the cheapest way to go, but they are definitely the cheapest way to go in the long run if you want to still have a home after a Major Hurricane.
In Cuba every new home during the past 70 years or so had to be built with reinforced concrete, even the roof.

there was a shantytown in the Marsh Harbour area home to Haitian immigrants, that appears to have been obliterated.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1168950067052646400

[eastcoastFL]

Looking more impressive on radar. Probably going to be a long day and night from treasure coast north.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks like a rather large eye is trying to clear out

[toad strangler]

Western edge of rain shield getting real close to EC FL coadt

Looks like it might reach Fort Pierce soon

[plasticup]

https://twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168935463526309892

Every time I go to say "that looks like tornado damage!" I remind myself that Dorian was as strong as an F3 tornado (158–206 mph), but lasted for almost an entire day. So no surprise that many buildings are stripped to the slab, really.

Horrifying.

Not really. Hurricane winds and torandic winds are not the same, and comparing them directly is inadvisable. FWIW you're also using the old Fujita scale -- 185mph winds on the new scale would be high end EF4.

I used the old scale on purpose, because the Enhanced Fujita scale is based on damage, not wind speed. The wind speeds on the EF scale are approximate and do not related to how the scale is assigned.

Would actually be interested in learning how hurricane and tornado winds differ. Do you have an article I could read?

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro showing the NW turn possibly coming.. getting very close to the NE florida coast and very very clsoe to GA/SC

[ScottNAtlanta]

12z Euro showing the NW turn possibly coming.. getting very close to the NE florida coast and very very clsoe to GA/SC

Looks like it is already moving NW, though its hard to tell with the slow motion and the eye reforming

[northjaxpro]

eye is definitely clearing out on satellite

That is always an ominous sign.

[jlauderdal]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

subsidence around a hurricane especially one this intense isnt unusual, this system has plenty of factors in its favor to maintain or intensity some and don't discount the gulf stream...considering the upwelling that took place, the hurricane did very well structurally