ATL: DORIAN - Models

[beachman80]

A couple observations on these latest models:
1) The further South this goes, the bigger concern this is for the GOM. I personally am seeing a Katrina like track out of this where it gets to the Bahamas, the HP ridge knocks it WSW and it goes through South Florida and emerges around Naples.
2) If it takes a more southern route and emerges in the SE Gulf, what are the factors in place. Does it move WNW? Does it do a Katrina and go NW and then N? Is there anything to turn it due north to where it rides the west coast or go through the big bend? The eastern gulf temps are at 90 degrees. Looking at the GFS Ensembles, there are a few that turn it quickly north and others that do a more gradual turn in the Gulf.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1166429274204725250

[beachman80]

If that upper level low moves between Cuba and the Bahamas and the HP is positioned to the north, this thing could be sheared apart as it approaches the Bahamas by that ULL. If that ULL stays a little further to the South and west, it should be able to strengthen with the HP to its north and not as much shear affecting it.

[ronjon]

Classic "pumping up" the ridge description which could force Dorian more W-SW.

[Kazmit]

The majority of ensembles actually cross PR now...

[Weatherboy1]

Is it just me, or are intensity forecasts climbing for Dorian down the road as well (assuming due to increasing likelihood of missing Hispanola and not being shredded as much?):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM into extreme S FL and explodes Dorian into a major hurricane in the GOM. Yes I know it's the NAVGEM - huge grain of salt.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019082712&fh=168

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF ensembles jumped North. Contrasting the GFS ensembles moving South.

[lsuhurricane]

Everyone from TX to NC needs to keep their heads up according to the Euro Ensembles!

[chris_fit]

EPS shifts north!

[toad strangler]

Just saw the GEPS. Wow brings the Carolinas into play. So much can happen still.

[Bocadude85]

EPS shifts north!

https://i.imgur.com/pMumUTD.png

Interesting shift north, some members are now into the Carolinas. It is also interesting that the majority of the stronger ensembles landfall farther south then the weaker ones.

[p1nheadlarry]

EPS shifts north!

https://i.imgur.com/pMumUTD.png

How common is it for 2/3 of the ensemble members to lie on one side of the operational? If landfall points were a distribution the ensemble mean would easily be over 1 stdev (but I'm not going through the hassle to calculate that, lame I know).

[chris_fit]

Gonzo Gulfstream IV is out right now sampling the surrounding environment, hopefully helping the modeling.

[SFLcane]

Yep threat further north of SFL meaning this turn will be gradual not sharp weaker ridge. Note GFS ensembles are south of the lake. Maybe NC is in play tomorrow? Might even recurve away all together from Florida still 5-6 days away so much can happen.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

RonJon,

As you stated it is the NAVGEM, but that being said you can't just ignore how consistent it has been with that track.

[FLpanhandle91]

EPS shifts north!

https://i.imgur.com/pMumUTD.png

Interesting shift north, some members are now into the Carolinas. It is also interesting that the majority of the stronger ensembles landfall farther south then the weaker ones.

ULL influences a stronger Dorian more so than a weaker storm.

[stormlover2013]

RonJon,

As you stated it is the NAVGEM, but that being said you can't just ignore how consistent it has been with that track.

Icon has been way better than the Navy, it has also been better than cmc. Icon did really good on barry this year.

[ronjon]

Yep threat further north of SFL meaning this turn will be gradual not sharp weaker ridge. Note GFS ensembles are south of the lake. Maybe NC is in play tomorrow? Might even recurve away all together from Florida still 5-6 days away so much can happen.

I don't want to burst your bubble but unlikely with this forecast by 12z ECM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019082712&fh=96

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Storm Lover,

If I am not mistaken the ICON has also had a very close track as the NAVGEN.