ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

A couple dry drops hundreds of miles from the CoC and they were just about to bring Bones out.
I expected Wxman57 to to show up any minute with his surface obs.

Wxman57 will be coming for you shortly

[1900hurricane]

Yes, OHC and (at least in the near term) shear will not be issues for Dorian. I strongly suspect it would be a hurricane, possibly a major one, by now if the surrounding air was not quite so dry.

That begs the question, why IS the air in the western Atlantic/eastern Caribbean so dry right now? I would have to think the storm would have outpaced the SAL outbreaks that have occurred.

Large scale subsidence.

https://i.imgur.com/zqt7XhG.gif

What does "large scale subsidence" mean in this context?

Basically, air is moving vertically downward from higher in the troposphere to lower. As the air moves downward, it warms up, but keeps the same water content as it did when it was colder, resulting in dry air since colder air can't hold as much water vapor as warm air.

[Highteeld]

Looks like SatCON has been too aggressive. We'll have to wait till it hits the bahamas for it to blow up (if it even can)

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1166137002171011072

[Kingarabian]

well pressures are still not very low.. interesting.

going over the islands will disrupt it some.

My opinion is that the system had shallow convection for the most part, and coupled with hot tower after hot tower and the CDO not cooling much, means that it's really struggling with dry air.

[GCANE]

[TheStormExpert]

...DORIAN NEARING BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1166138131537702913

[Hypercane_Kyle]

1007mb seems a touch too high, recon supported closer to 1005mb, but I'm sure there's a reason why.

[Kingarabian]

...DORIAN NEARING BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Looks like the GFS and Euro haven't been too far off with their initialization of Dorian.

[FrontRunner]

Circulation isn't as healthy/large as I would have expected based on that recon pass in the SW quadrant. Lots of winds out of the N or even NNE instead of NW until they got right to the center.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looks a lot more impressive on satellite than measurements have now confirmed. Color me a little surprised. I don't think they will lower the winds much on the advisories though; consistency. Wouldn't the midlevel dry air help to enhance thunderstorm gusts? Might have higher winds there than near the center

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation isn't as healthy/large as I would have expected based on that recon pass in the SW quadrant. Lots of winds out of the N or even NNE instead of NW until they got right to the center.

that could have easily be turbulent flow off the 1100 ft peak.

[msbee]

Martinique radar
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Caribbean radar composite
http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_rada ... Lionel.php

[GCANE]

A couple dry drops hundreds of miles from the CoC and they were just about to bring Bones out.
I expected Wxman57 to to show up any minute with his surface obs.

Wxman57 will be coming for you shortly

Gotta respect him, he's from the "old school"

[islandgirl45]

How soon will the recon data be incorporated into the models?

[Kingarabian]

Definitely looks a lot more impressive on satellite than measurements have now confirmed. Color me a little surprised. I don't think they will lower the winds much on the advisories though; consistency.

It looks pretty good on visible satellite imagery. But when you look at IR imagery and notice how warm some of these cloud tops are, it makes more sense that it's a relatively weak and messy storm. Great news for the islands.

[1900hurricane]

1007mb seems a touch too high, recon supported closer to 1005mb, but I'm sure there's a reason why.

Maybe that's all they saw on the dropsonde? I do agree that 1007 mb does appear a little high though. Certainly my 997 mb was too deep.

[Highteeld]

Going off radar, the N or NW pass should be a little higher, but still nowhere near a hurricane like ADT was suggesting earlier.

[SFLcane]

Barely a TS... oops

Ok GFS