ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I can't find any link to a chat room on this website. Not sure where to look.

Here's where I see the "center" of Karen this morning. It's just SW of a buoy that is reporting 15kt winds. Squalls to the southwest are decreasing now. I don't think there is any LLC under them. NE wind shear remains quite strong.

[NDG]

Looking at the latest microwave pass from two hours ago, it clearly shows the LLC is near 26N & 64W at that time, on the NE side of the deep convection, still elongated circulation.

[tolakram]

I can't find any link to a chat room on this website. Not sure where to look.

Here's where I see the "center" of Karen this morning. It's just SW of a buoy that is reporting 15kt winds. Squalls to the southwest are decreasing now. I don't think there is any LLC under them. NE wind shear remains quite strong.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen16.JPG

Discord invite in my signature. Here it is as well: https://discordapp.com/invite/VMktVYb

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Tolakram for the links.

[wxman57]

I can't find any link to a chat room on this website. Not sure where to look.

Here's where I see the "center" of Karen this morning. It's just SW of a buoy that is reporting 15kt winds. Squalls to the southwest are decreasing now. I don't think there is any LLC under them. NE wind shear remains quite strong.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen16.JPG

Discord invite in my signature. Here it is as well: https://discordapp.com/invite/VMktVYb

Ah, thanks. However, usually when there is something quite interesting to chat about I'm too busy to chat but just pop in here occasionally.

[GCANE]

Very good infeed of low-level winds from the north.
180-degree turnaround from the lack of convergence yesterday.

[Weatherboy1]

Sure looks more impressive to me at this time. Banding features. Large circulation envelope. Better outflow. Still seems like LLC and MLC may not be co-located. But overall?

[otowntiger]

I can't find any link to a chat room on this website. Not sure where to look.

Here's where I see the "center" of Karen this morning. It's just SW of a buoy that is reporting 15kt winds. Squalls to the southwest are decreasing now. I don't think there is any LLC under them. NE wind shear remains quite strong.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen16.JPG

Discord invite in my signature. Here it is as well: https://discordapp.com/invite/VMktVYb

Ah, thanks. However, usually when there is something quite interesting to chat about I'm too busy to chat but just pop in here occasionally.

And we appreciate that!! thanks for all of your insight!

[GCANE]

Jerry may start to entrain LL dry air.
This would likely pinch off the TPW feed to Jerry and give more juice to Karen.
Since this is low-level dry air and there is obviously very moist mid-level air in place, the moist air would over ride the dry air kicking off strong dry-line convection.
Watching today if this happens. Sign would be convection firing up north of the CoC.

[LarryWx]

Today will be quite crucial as far as track of storm. IF the LLC were to unexpectedly relocate closer to the MLC, she’d then be quite a bit W of projections.

[GCANE]

Looks like a dry-line may already be forming on the feeder band

[Jr0d]

I wouldn't say she looks impressive, but off hospice watch for now.

I except her to start slowing down tonight.

[GCANE]

Ya, cumulus beginning to fire here.
Countdown underway, all tanks are pressurized, power has switched to internal.

[NDG]

Looks like a dry-line may already be forming on the feeder band

https://i.imgur.com/A4v3old.png

Is there a reason why you posted a wv satellite pix from last night?
Here is the current image:

[GCANE]

Looks like a dry-line may already be forming on the feeder band

https://i.imgur.com/A4v3old.png

Is there a reason why you posted a wv satellite pix from last night?
Here is the current image:

https://i.imgur.com/10LkD4h.jpg

Its a real-time image I got from Slider of LL WV not mid-level WV.
I wanted to highlight the fact its LL dry air being over run by mid-level moist air.

[NDG]

This is where I think the LLC is located as of 15 minutes ago, near 26.75N & 64.1W

[GCANE]

Looks like a dry-line may already be forming on the feeder band

https://i.imgur.com/A4v3old.png

Is there a reason why you posted a wv satellite pix from last night?
Here is the current image:

https://i.imgur.com/10LkD4h.jpg

Its a real-time image I got from Slider of LL WV not mid-level WV.
I wanted to highlight the fact its LL dry air being over run by mid-level moist air.

My bad, I just checked the time stamp, it is old. Sorry.

[Aric Dunn]

Still looking quite healthy. Little bit of ne shear but much less then yesterday... with the increased convection a quicker turn east and se is likely to occur. Assuming it continues this trend

[GCANE]

OK, here's a better, real-time depiction of the ML moist air over riding the LL dry air and associated cumulus firing off.

[rbaker55]

I said it yesterday, and repeat it again today, never count out a storm with convection, no matter how disorganized it looks like that day. We have had numerous days with this storm and previous ones, that pulsate. That being said, the forecast has unfavorable conditions with dry air and upper level shear coming into play. Personally, I think models have a real hard time with ULL's which have a huge effect on TC's