ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looking at the NHC graphic archive loop for 5-day track for this storm, clearly the models had a tough time with Dorian early on by Puerto Rico and especially on the approach to Florida. It is shown in how much the NHC track had to shift to accommodate the models. Worked out in Florida’s favor in a huge way this time:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... _with_line

[Buck]

Sunset view of Dorian off the Mid-Atlantic coast

https://i.imgur.com/LLu1QZM.jpg

Feels like we’ve been watching this guy for a year.

[hurricanes1234]

NOW, this one has my attention right off the bat. As Aric stated I think we FINALLY may have our first true and real and genuine MDR system that will actually have an opportunity to fully mature into a potential formidable tropical cyclone .

Dry air should not be a crippling inhibitor with.99L this time around. Origin of this system tied to the ITCZ initially.

On a side note, I also am impressed with the tropical wave behind 99L just off the African coast. That will be the.next invest soon. The North Atlantic basin looks to have finally.awakened folks, ,after a long summer slumber. Just in time for the approach of the peak time of the season

When you revisit a post on the first page of an infamous storm's thread and realise how stunningly accurate the post was.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to take on some baroclinic influences now.

[Steve]

^^ yeah it looks like it though without looking at NHC’s 3 day or anything, it looks like it’s still got a day and half or couple of days more as a mostly tropical system. Blake pointed out the NTT, so it should expand as it transitions and possibly intensify a little. I know some people from Halifax, so I hope they fare well. For now, looks like some late night juicing
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[CrazyC83]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

[Steve]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

If it maintains enough tropical characteristics, it’s going to get 50 ACE if it can drop back into the 940s. I’m not sure what the death toll will end up being in the Bahamas, but people will look back on Dorian for a long time. Some of the survivors on Abaco Islands will have some of the most extreme survivor stories ever. Cat 4/5 for 36 hours is pretty unheard of in the Western Hemisphere. Hurricane impacts for like 48-54 hours are as well.

[PavelGaborik10]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

[Cargill]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

Most people don't wish hurricane-force winds upon themselves, usually for good reasons. Perhaps consult with the survivors in the Bahamas.

[Stormi]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

Most people don't wish hurricane-force winds upon themselves, usually for good reasons. Perhaps consult with the survivors in the Bahamas.

The OP meant no Ill-will, he is just a curious "chaser" to a natural extent & wanted the experience. I sympathize from Ncentral FL. He wasn't trying to disrespect, I believe just wanted to pay his respects, if that makes sense. Same over here.

[Stormi]

Also, not sure where my Angry Devil face came from, but he wasn't intended & I can't get rid of him

[PavelGaborik10]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

Most people don't wish hurricane-force winds upon themselves, usually for good reasons. Perhaps consult with the survivors in the Bahamas.

One would think you would be able to read between the lines in the sense that I was hoping to experience 75 MPH wind gusts, not a direct impact from a 175 MPH Category 5 Hurricane, but I suppose not.

I live in Nova Scotia, we routinely get Nor'Easters that produce hurricane force wind gusts, I was merely hoping for the opportunity to experience minimal hurricane forced gusts at a different time of year for a change. I swear some individuals go out of their way in order to end up offended.

[Buck]

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

Most people don't wish hurricane-force winds upon themselves, usually for good reasons. Perhaps consult with the survivors in the Bahamas.

One would think you would be able to read between the lines in the sense that I was hoping to experience 75 MPH wind gusts, not a direct impact from a 175 MPH Category 5 Hurricane, but I suppose not.

I live in Nova Scotia, we routinely get Nor'Easters that produce hurricane force winds gusts, I was merely hoping for the opportunity to experience minimal hurricane forced gusts at a different time of year for a change. I swear some individuals go out of their way in order to end up offended.

I get it. I got Hurricane force winds (or close) from Opal here in north Georgia. An experience I will never forget.

[Cargill]

I guess the best advice I can provide (after many years of experience), is then when you're deep in a hole, the best thing to do is to stop digging.

And anyway where is this storm now at ... it scuttled just past the Outer Banks - into forum oblivion it seems.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Pressure has dropped rapidly at a buoy the storm is going nearly directly over:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=44011

9:20am EDT: 957.8 mb

Here is a direct link to the pressure chart in millibars:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=ADT

At 7:30 am EDT the pressure was 966.4mb which is why the NHC might have been higher on the pressure. (unless there is some reason to doubt the buoy)

To see where it is in relation to this storm, go to National Data Buoy Center page:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
You can the one above.

The NHC in the 8am EDT advisory mentioned this one I think:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=44008
It's pulling away from that one.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

And that buoy has a camera taking pictures hourly.

Buoy 44011:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=44011

Saved images:

Although you can see less and less as each hour goes by.

6:10am EDT:



7:10am EDT:



8:10am EDT:

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks to be transitioning now, center is exposed. Still firing off storms though. Those pressure readings are extremely impressive...very well may fall well into the 940's at this rate.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The Georges Bank buoy had a pressure of 955.3mb and 39 foot wave heights at 8:50am EDT as Dorian continues to pass nearly directly over.

https://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011

[supercane4867]

Morning view. Starting to look more extratropical

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The view at 9:10am EDT at the Georges Bank buoy: