ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Have it reaching SFL coast as a batch of clouds or a formidable tc?

Yes.

That’s a whole lot more aggressive from 57 than the past couple days

Feels kind of honoring to be the recipient of a landfall location from 57 5ish days out.

Also, welcome to the Cat 5 Club

[1900hurricane]

I agree they were likely too high. 40 kt seems the best estimate. Did it weaken or was it overestimated all along though? I don't remember any ASCAT passes.

Overestimated most likely due to some faulty microwave analysis. I think an ASCAT pass earlier today only had about 30-35kt winds.

Microwave intensities and SATCON isn't always great below hurricane intensity, often being too high. I'll admit that I did bite on it today though.

[cdavis6287]

Hello all been a while! While this storm should and will be watched closely, I believe the NWS is spot on with intensity forecast on it's current path.

It is a small compct storm that has to go through a lot of dry air in it's future, along with land involvement. (How much is to be seen)

I live in Saint Lucie/Martin County area of Florida. The media is already starting to begin the hype and I fully expect this time tomorrow everyone hitting the gas stations and canned good isles at local supermarkets. Nothing wrong with that, as I hope people do prepare for a possible storm in this area. Just wish people would not panic.

I have already heard people talking about comparisons to Andrew. I am expecting a moderate to strong Tropical Storm between Indian River County south to Palm Beach County.

BTW WxMan thanks for your input and taking time to post on this board. Just worked 8 days straight at my job, couldn't imagine 8 more!

[toad strangler]

This isn’t the model thread but I think it’s important to remember that models that many of us trust more than others don’t have Dorian very strong pre Greater Antilles. This recon data backs up what shorter term modeling has been showing. Weak Sauce.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ATCF knocks Dorian down to 45knots, MSLP 1004mb though.

[wxman57]

Have it reaching SFL coast as a batch of clouds or a formidable tc?

Yes.

That’s a whole lot more aggressive from 57 than the past couple days

I worked for 3 1/2 hours on the mid-morning advisory. Previous track had it dissipating over the DR. I extended the track out to 5 days as a remnant low, then I switched it to a 7-day track into SE FL as a depression. I went back to a 5-day track with a remnant low. Next went back to the 7-day track as a depression into FL. However, that is VERY unlikely. If it survives to reach the Bahamas then conditions there would be favorable for strengthening. Sometimes I wish we could just put out a 3-day track (or 5-day)...

[1900hurricane]

00z ATCF knocks Dorian down to 45knots, MSLP 1004mb though.

18Z intensity was also brought down to 45 kt too.

[Highteeld]

05L DORIAN 190827 0000 13.0N 59.2W ATL 45 1004

[CrazyC83]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

[SFLcane]

Yes.

That’s a whole lot more aggressive from 57 than the past couple days

I worked for 3 1/2 hours on the mid-morning advisory. Previous track had it dissipating over the DR. I extended the track out to 5 days as a remnant low, then I switched it to a 7-day track into SE FL as a depression. I went back to a 5-day track with a remnant low. Next went back to the 7-day track as a depression into FL. However, that is VERY unlikely. If it survives to reach the Bahamas then conditions there would be favorable for strengthening. Sometimes I wish we could just put out a 3-day track (or 5-day)...

So what your implying is if it makes it out if the Caribbean with a formidable llc we could have a problem.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes.

That’s a whole lot more aggressive from 57 than the past couple days

I worked for 3 1/2 hours on the mid-morning advisory. Previous track had it dissipating over the DR. I extended the track out to 5 days as a remnant low, then I switched it to a 7-day track into SE FL as a depression. I went back to a 5-day track with a remnant low. Next went back to the 7-day track as a depression into FL. However, that is VERY unlikely. If it survives to reach the Bahamas then conditions there would be favorable for strengthening. Sometimes I wish we could just put out a 3-day track (or 5-day)...

I agree with you. I think game over with this storm. Not going to say put a fork in it quite yet though....But I'll give it about a 5% chance of it affecting the USA Mainland as a TS Storm or higher...

[Highteeld]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

Could be shallow water there skewing SFMR too high off the beach of Barbados. FL winds are still low

[GCANE]

They just got a 49 knt SFMR in the clear

[abajan]

Light rain and fairly frequent thunder at the moment. Absolutely spectacular sunset earlier.

[AutoPenalti]

oof, this storm has been a handful.

Dry air is really keeping this storm in check, despite what we are seeing with this moisture pocket. Seems like without a CDO this won’t have a chance of intensifying.

[artist]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

Just was
URNT15 KNHC 270048
AF300 0405A DORIAN HDOB 24 20190827
003830 1312N 05926W 8430 01566 0111 +148 +082 051033 036 052 022 00
003900 1310N 05926W 8393 01600 0104 +150 +088 060035 037 066 016 03
003930 1309N 05925W 8386 01605 0105 +147 +095 065035 038 060 005 00
004000 1307N 05924W 8421 01567 0094 +161 +101 067030 037 061

[Nimbus]

This isn’t the model thread but I think it’s important to remember that models that many of us trust more than others don’t have Dorian very strong pre Greater Antilles. This recon data backs up what shorter term modeling has been showing. Weak Sauce.

Cloud tops are warming again after the latest pulse.
There is a lot of dry air out there, but the upper level low that is the real shear monster is rolling west so I'm not sure how much dry air is going to be able to undercut the circulation? Especially with Dorian starting to turn more WNW. That is what we have air sampling flights and models for so maybe tomorrow morning the GFS will recognize Dorian.

[Highteeld]

Whoa, SFMR really out to lunch. Shocked those did not get flagged

[Sanibel]

Just came back from Costco...Got 3 cases of water (12 gallons and a case of Smartwater)...and a 14 pack of D cell batteries...

[CrazyC83]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

Just was
URNT15 KNHC 270048
AF300 0405A DORIAN HDOB 24 20190827
003830 1312N 05926W 8430 01566 0111 +148 +082 051033 036 052 022 00
003900 1310N 05926W 8393 01600 0104 +150 +088 060035 037 066 016 03
003930 1309N 05925W 8386 01605 0105 +147 +095 065035 038 060 005 00
004000 1307N 05924W 8421 01567 0094 +161 +101 067030 037 061

I'd throw out all those SFMR readings.