ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#941 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:03 pm

GFS down to 969 at hr 114
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#942 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:03 pm

Ill be waiting for 00z. hopefully, they are initialized correctly by then.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#943 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:04 pm

Legacy GFS and GFS 2 different planets thru 114
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#944 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:04 pm

not to beat a dead horse, but so much for #seasoncancelled
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#945 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:05 pm

966 hr 120
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#946 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:05 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ill be waiting for 00z. hopefully, they are initialized correctly by then.


Were the 18z GFS models initialized with the relocated center?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#947 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:05 pm

Highteeld wrote:2 recurves ots from this suite

https://i.imgur.com/Sc3Qa4k.png
sure, with that 1030 high sitting north of it, could it go farther north than the central florida coast, yes, is it going out to sea(the reliable models would have to completely bust big time, all of them
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#948 Postby Kazmit » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:05 pm

Cat 3?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#949 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:06 pm

Down to 962 mb about to make landfall on the Fl Ga line
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#950 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:06 pm

The Legacy GFS has stronger ridging than last run through 108 hours, while the OP GFS has weaker ridging than its last run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#951 Postby jfk08c » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:06 pm

Looks like Jacksonville is going to be smoked by a Cat 3 on this GFS run... :eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#952 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:06 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Highteeld wrote:2 recurves ots from this suite

https://i.imgur.com/Sc3Qa4k.png
sure, with that 1030 high sitting north of it, could it go farther north than the central florida coast, yes, is it going out to sea(the reliable models would have to completely bust big time, all of them


Exactly, the massive high which will give me a lovely weekend up here makes it extremely unlikely Dorian finds an escape route.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#953 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:07 pm

The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#954 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:08 pm

GFS legacy bombing at h120 954 mb
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#955 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:08 pm

Crazy question, but thus far, has the GFS performed better than the Legacy with Dorian?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#956 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:08 pm

Is the majic trap door making an appearance in the 18z GFS??? :wink:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#957 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:08 pm

Stalled at the coast
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#958 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:09 pm

What did I tell u early fellows we have no trend, 3/4 days out we could see a trend
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#959 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:09 pm

GFS Way North Carolina’s will be in play tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#960 Postby Homie J » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:09 pm

Could such a situation as what GFS Legacy is showing actually occur?
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