ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Looks like another weak/possibly concentric core case down very close to Atkinson & Holliday. Adjusting for background pressure, I'm getting a 81 kt wind estimate with the 966 mb pressure. Not adjusting, it drops all the way down to 77 kt for the same pressure.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like another weak/possibly concentric core case down very close to Atkinson & Holliday. Adjusting for background pressure, I'm getting a 81 kt wind estimate with the 966 mb pressure. Not adjusting, it drops all the way down to 77 kt for the same pressure.

Interesting, this actually makes sense all things considered. I'd expect the NHC to drop the peak intensity forecast - I can't see this becoming a major hurricane with this structure, at least not in the next 24 hours. The pressure would likely have to drop into the low 940s to support that, if not lower.

[Kazmit]

I think it wobbled to the south a little actually, lol.

[wx98]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16
Location: 30.3°N 75.1°W
Moving: ENE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[Sciencerocks]

Nice blow up on the western eyewall and could wrap around the eye throughout the next 6 hours. Possible sign of a strengthening I'd think.

[sponger]

That massive jet stream looks more like October!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[Hurricaneman]

Humberto seems to be having a bit of dry air issues which are keeping this from being more intense but with the expanded wind field this could be more of an issue for Bermuda than a normal sized hurricane

[Hammy]

Peak intensity forecast probably needs to come down quite a bit at this point--circulation looks too broad to strengthen much more, though the flipside means it'll have a higher chance of being a wind issues for Bermuda.

[Kazmit]

Pressure is still dropping. Looks like it's sub-960 now.

[Kazmit]

Winds from recon could support an upgrade to 85kts.

[plasticup]

Winds from recon could support an upgrade to 85kts.

NHC agreed with you: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

[wx98]

8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 17
Location: 30.6°N 74.0°W
Moving: ENE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[Kazmit]

From the latest discussion:

...the wind data indicate that Humberto's wind field
has expanded significantly and is becoming asymmetric with the
largest wind radii now located in the southern semicircle.

[plasticup]

Eye looking nice and symmetric now. Might be a small dry slot on the southern edge though

[DioBrando]

Eye looking nice and symmetric now. Might be a small dry slot on the southern edge though

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_09L_201909171602.jpg?3062861

Jinkies.

[SconnieCane]

Eye looking nice and symmetric now. Might be a small dry slot on the southern edge though

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_09L_201909171602.jpg?3062861

HWRF simulated IR from a few days ago pretty much nailed the presentation and location. Uncanny.

[404UserNotFound]

The appearance somewhat reminds me of Earl 2010.

[plasticup]

They say this is a Category 2? Looks a lot better than most.

[Nuno]

I'm very interested in how Humberto will influence TD10 in the long term.

[plasticup]

I'm very interested in how Humberto will influence TD10 in the long term.

Euro, CMC, and GFS have TD10 follow through Humberto's trough (ironically, right over Bermuda). HWRF has TD10 completely miss the trough and truck through the Caribbean.