ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[tomatkins]

So I just noticed that the NHC site has now added a satellite link for each storm that takes you to NOAA's storm floater.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[GCANE]

Here ya go, right on time.
Right were I expected the dry-line convection to kick off.
A whole new ball game, LL convergence going to kick in big time.
Expect a notch up during recon.

[chaser1]

So I just noticed that the NHC site has now added a satellite link for each storm that takes you to NOAA's storm floater.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Nice, but it sure does load slowly

[crimi481]

11am NHC discussion, reminds me of Dorian discussion, which forecast Dorian to dissipate.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here ya go, right on time.
Right were I expected the dry-line convection to kick off.
A whole new ball game, LL convergence going to kick in big time.
Expect a notch up during recon.

https://i.imgur.com/8dDdZqL.png

Stuff like this seems to be occurring each time we try to declare Karen "dead"

[sma10]

11am NHC discussion, reminds me of Dorian discussion, which forecast Dorian to dissipate.

The NHC forecast Dorian to dissipate?

[chaser1]

Looks like this Hairball is trying to develop a new meso spin up 66.5W and 26N Center reformation with this hot mess is sort of like Helen Keller trying to play "whac-a-mole". Sure, we've got ascat and recon but just wait a few hours for the dry air to impact another convective collapse. Only thing i'll say is that it sure is a persistent bugger and it does make me think back to Andrew after opening up to a wave before finally getting it's act together. Do I think that's a strong possibility? Hell no, but until Bones officially declares this dead I'd have to think anything's possible. For the time being though this putrid mess can't buy itself a persistent COC or a feeder band that'll stick around for more then a day or so.

[mpic]

Anyone else want tonsay its not closed.. ?


Also the nhc has to follow the guidance tona degree. Trends will determine what the models do amd thus what nhc forecast. Sooo we have to wait

It's alive until all the clouds have gone and there are clear skies. I don't like surprises!

[tpr1967]

I don't think there's any LLC under that convection, and NE of the convection looks like a trof axis. However, I did notice something interesting SE of the convection. There is a definite rotation near 26.1N / 66.7W. Not sure what that is. Recon would be nice. I'll bet the NHC forecasters are banging their heads against a wall about now.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen17.JPG

Looks like it's in the mid levels you can see lower level clouds running N to S thru it.

[rbaker55]

Here ya go, right on time.
Right were I expected the dry-line convection to kick off.
A whole new ball game, LL convergence going to kick in big time.
Expect a notch up during recon.

https://i.imgur.com/8dDdZqL.png

Stuff like this seems to be occurring each time we try to declare Karen "dead"

amazing just 12 hours ago many here including one met had a fork in this one. I think anyone who has followed TC's knows that until everything is gone, that there is a chance of regeneration. Not to say it wont happen down the line, but many here tend to erase a storm too quickly.

[EquusStorm]

Just rope off the Bermuda Triangle and say "something vaugely tropical is going to do something" at this point

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1177247020144300033

[rbaker55]

+
wv loop clearly shows the ULL is moving west and has moved far enough to let Karen under less shear, and actually has alot of moist air to deal with. Its found its sweet spot to be better organized at the moment

[wxman57]

Here's a current image with the red crosshairs marking the recon-located weak center. Buoy is 42nm (48 miles) NE of the center with 10kt winds. Center is displaced ENE of the convection. 38kts FL wind and 35 kt SFMR. A bit suspicious as far as the FL to surface relationship, but I wouldn't argue that there aren't any TS winds in Karen. I was forecasting 40 kts for today's winds, but don't think that'll happen. I still see Karen dissipating in a few days. Remnants might reach as far west as Florida next Thursday or so.

[Aric Dunn]

Center just got pulled west to wsw under that deep tower.

Starting to look more symmetrical in the low levels. As the boundary between jerry breaks down.

[StormLogic]

Center just got pulled west to wsw under that deep tower.

Starting to look more symmetrical in the low levels. As the boundary between jerry breaks down.

Karen's here again, she wants to speak to the manager...

[LarryWx]

Center just got pulled west to wsw under that deep tower.

Starting to look more symmetrical in the low levels. As the boundary between jerry breaks down.

Many times these end up being false alarms. But it does look like to me that the old LLC is finally getting surrounded by the eastern side of the heavy convection. If so, let's see how long this lasts and whether or not it ends up amounting to much.

[wxman57]

I'm still seeing a pitiful mess with a broad, poorly-defined center east of the convection and moving NNE. It's no better-organized than it was this morning. Still no threat to the Bahamas or Florida. Time to go home after I send out the Lorenzo advisory...

[Nimbus]

Those hot towers look impressive but I didn't catch the LLC relocation so I'm not sure she is reorganizing successfully. Warm moist air from the surface is making it up through the hot towers ATM.

[wxman57]

Recon found a second center well north of the convection. Possibly 2 centers rotating around a larger low pressure area. It's really hard for a system to strengthen without any low-level convergence. Winds north of the southern center are blowing south to north, away from the low center.