ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A good possibility that NHC may go straght to TS and no doubt we will see an advisory package later this morning, or sooner.

They may pull the trigger this morning but the plane goes in the afternoon so they have to decide to wait or do it earlier.

[northjaxpro]

Latest projections for this weekend's storm from the NWS Jax office in the 5 a.m.forecast package this morning are indicating across interior areas of North Florida and Southeast Georgia generally upwards to 3 inches, with possible amounts from 4 to 6 inches.

Hopefully, the anticipated fast forward motion of the cyclone will keep down rainfall amounts from being too extreme this upcoming weekend.

[northjaxpro]

A good possibility that NHC may go straght to TS and no doubt we will see an advisory package later this morning, or sooner.

They may pull the trigger this morning but the plane goes in the afternoon so they have to decide to wait or do it earlier.

I think we will possibly see them do it later this morning.

[GCANE]

Initial AMSU analysis shows a broad warm core has developed with good structure to allow convection to fire.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the possibility of this finding a pocket of relative low shear is increasing as the synoptic placement is possibly in place to allow the deep convection to force the mid to upper winds fsrther north... damming in essence. Rock in a flowing stream.

This wpuld also cause a more ene motion as the steering tilts in response.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS appears a little slow on the UL Trough.
The PV Streamer interaction may not be as severe as forecast, especially if 96L holds back a little on its forecast track.

[Aric Dunn]

06Z GFS appears a little slow on the UL Trough.
The PV Streamer interaction may not be as severe as forecast, especially if 96L holds back a little on its forecast track.

Gfs is utterly dependent on the center reforming to the ne.

[tropicwatch]

Great, NESDIS is down this morning.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or
subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or
northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of
development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough
surf over those areas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this
weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system. For more information
about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS appears a little slow on the UL Trough.
The PV Streamer interaction may not be as severe as forecast, especially if 96L holds back a little on its forecast track.

Gfs is utterly dependent on the center reforming to the ne.

Great point. If the LL Vort gets behind the PVS at a fair distance, UL outflow channel kicks in, all hell breaks loose.

[CyclonicFury]

No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?

[Frank2]

NHC (NESDIS) having serious data problems - hope it's not a satellite issue but a web site problem instead.

NHC hasn't issued any PTC advisories and in fact lessened their 8 am TWO wording (...continue to show signs of organization.) because the system is very strecthed from SW to NE and further east. Shear is very strong north of 25N so don't expect much to happen, other than a fast-moving rain event. Even Jim Cantore did not make very much of it in his latest update before 8 a.m.

I spoke with someone at the HRD the other day and the strength of mid-latitude systems was mentioned - season's about over folks...

Frank

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak at 1.0.

17/1200 UTC 21.4N 96.2W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic

TXNT28 KNES 171218
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)

B. 17/1200Z

C. 21.4N

D. 96.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[northjaxpro]

No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?

Well, this is the main reason why NHC must issue something today because landfall is imminent now inside of 48 hours.

It does seem.like NHC has been reacting very slowly with this system, considering that time is critical right now. I personally was frustrated that Recon, which had been scheduled to fly out yesterday, got unexpectedly cancelled, and now they won't get in there until.this afternoon?

[Ivanhater]

Both Euro and Gfs showing highest rain totals into western Florida panhandle

[TallyTracker]

NHC (NESDIS) having serious data problems - hope it's not a satellite issue.

NHC hasn't issued any PTC advisories and in fact lessened their 8 am TWO wording (...continue to show signs of organization.) because the system is very strecthed from SW to NE and further east. Shear is very strong north of 25N so don't expect much to happen, other than a fast-moving rain event. Even Jim Cantore did not make very much of it in his latest update before 8 a.m.

I spoke with someone at the HRD the other day and the strength of mid-latitude systems was mentioned - season's about over folks...

Frank

This one has been forecast to be stretched from the very beginning. It’s not likely to be a pretty cyclone. I expect it will be designated at least subtropical.

[Bigwhitey]

No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?

Because maybe the folks at the NHC don’t think this is going to be a cyclone?

[Jr0d]

No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?

Because maybe the folks at the NHC don’t think this is going to be a cyclone?

Yet the probability is at 80%...

If the NHC didn't think it will become a cyclone I don't think they would give it 4:1 odds of becoming one.

[TallyTracker]

No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?

Because maybe the folks at the NHC don’t think this is going to be a cyclone?

The projected landfall time is late Saturday or potentially even Sunday. They may not issue PTC advisories until tonight. That’s if it hasn’t already developed of course.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 22.2°N 95.7°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 130 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM