WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 191217 1800 4.5N 158.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 181900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181900Z-190600ZDEC2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7N
157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A PARTIAL 181703 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE BROAD LLCC. INVEST 98W IS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

98W may be affecting the Philippines by Christmas day. A good number of ECMWF ens members have it becoming a strong TS or a TY as it approaches the country.

[Hayabusa]

]WWJP27 RJTD 190600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 191800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 04N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

Maybe one last gasp for the 2019 season.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

med

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 200600Z-210600ZDEC2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 148.7E, APPROXIMATELY 245
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200316Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 98W IS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND THEN SLOWLY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

near warning TD

WWJP27 RJTD 200600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.6N 147.6E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Hmm?

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Hmm?!

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 143.2E TO 7.4N 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.9N 142.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 148.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CICULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 202314 METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 210030Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST REMAIN WEAK (10 TO 15
KNOTS), BUT ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL ENABLE IT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR IN THE NEAR TERM, SO ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS 98W SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220300Z.
//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

LLCC has become exposed. Those 25-30kt winds are underneath the sheared convection.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ20 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 05.3N 142.6E POOR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 07.1N 138.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[1900hurricane]

Time to classify.