ATL: ZETA - Models

[Gums]

Salute!

@Northjax take a cruise on Google Earth south and southwest of New Orleans. The terrain resembles what you have north of you like Brunswick and toward Charleston. No problems with your great posts, but I gotta tell all that living in several coastal communities when storms hit provides a great perspective and sense of reality.

The folks like Shawee and Steve ( and this old pilot from Gentilly) know the terrain and likely have been thru a few storms to match up the forecasts and TV coverage with real "boots on the ground" observations.

I feel badly for my friends back home, and one classmate from long ago is getting outta dodge for the 3rd time this year.
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Panhandle folks all the way to Destin and PC are treating the storm with basic prep, as we expect a small surge and some winds. Worst problem are the little vorts that resemble tornadoes and rip part of your roof off or bring down a tree.

Gums sends...

[northjaxpro]

Salute!

@Northjax take a cruise on Google Earth south and southwest of New Orleans. The terrain resembles what you have north of you like Brunswick and toward Charleston. No problems with your great posts, but I gotta tell all that living in several coastal communities when storms hit provides a great perspective and sense of reality.

The folks like Shawee and Steve ( and this old pilot from Gentilly) know the terrain and likely have been thru a few storms to match up the forecasts and TV coverage with real "boots on the ground" observations.

I feel badly for my friends back home, and one classmate from long ago is getting outta dodge for the 3rd time this year.
====================
Panhandle folks all the way to Destin and PC are taking the storm with basic prep, as we expect a small surge and some winds. Worst problem are the little vorts that resemble tornadoes and rip part of your roof off or bring down a tree.

Gums sends...

Yes indeed Gums. I am all too familiar with Brunswick, Savannah and Charleston just up the road from me . You are essentially correct, the terrain in those areas are very similar to that over in Louisiana. Lots of marshes and bays, and harbors, especially in and around Savannah and into the Low Country of Beaufort and up to Charleston.

[Nimbus]

Storm tracks 20 miles further east than forecast and the storm surge would be a lot less in Louisiana with the wind out of the NE.
Baton Rouge has some elevation but the track forecast looks impossible to predict.
Upper level low is centered over New Mexico and looks like it is dropping south a little and the high dome over Zeta isn't moving east quite as fast as I had anticipated. See if the isobars on the 18Z runs agree?

[slamdaddy]

1800Z HWRF seems to be taking Zeta to the higher life.

[slamdaddy]

1800Z HWRF seems to be taking Zeta to the higher life.

114MPH at 1800Z tomorrow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _28L_9.png

[Steve]

Always good to hear from you GUMS. I started off in Gentilly as well - Odin Street a couple houses off St. Roch Avenue. We moved over to Kennilworth when my mom was pregnant with #5 and we were only living in a 3BR. Gentilly, home of Bacchus Bar, Krewe of Dreux and those good people.

Jax,

The only things different from those areas are a) no rocks anywhere (it's all silt) and b) not much land left anywhere either. Sometimes fishing, it's often kind off hard to tell what open water is bays or inlets and what is the Gulf except for the wave action. It's not going to get any better in time, and unless they do something to either protect the land or diminish hurricanes, there won't be much of South LA south of the I-10 in the future except the little pockets that are ringed by levees.

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I think the consensus is pretty official. Anything deviating from this would be a surprise. The only questions remaining to be answered is where does it cross in relation to New Orleans/Lake Pontchartain and then how does it affect Mississippi (e.g. does it just move into Hancock County from St. Tammany Parish or does it get some water time and hit closer to Pass Christian?



Here's the late cycle COAMPS from 12z


Here's the 12z Late Cycle EPS Members


Here's the HWRF landfalling around 4pm tomorrow afternoon landfalling at a fairly low 962mb


Here's the HWRF IR Simulation at 3 hours prior to Landfall (3 hours after landfall it's about in Slidell.


Here's the HMON at landfall at 6pm tomorrow at 973

[Steve]

1800Z HWRF seems to be taking Zeta to the higher life.

Bout time to join it.

[Steve]

Gonna slug that nightcap and get a few hours of sleep. Tomorrow looks to be as eventful of a tropical day as I've seen in a long time. I've said it a million times, but we must have had 7 or 8 tropical days so far this year. That never happens, and we have another one to go. Nor does your state get 6 hits in a season regardless of the variability of the hits. This looks to be the main event for SELA and the MS Gulf Coast. Fortunately the models still limit the rain though I'm sure it's going to be intense near the core regardless if the street flooding is only temporary. Here's where the models stand about 16-18 hours til landfall.

00z NAM 3km - Landfalls 6pm at 960. (NOTE: NAM 3km always overestimates pressure).

00z NAM 12km - Landfalls 7pm at 987.

04z HRRR - Landfalls at 984 about 5pm.

00z GFS - Low 980's

00z CMC - Loose and a fail with landfall upper 990's

00z HWRF - Landfalls around 972

00z HMON - Landfalls around 973 but is a little SE of some of the other tracks and passes on the southern side of New Orleans

Best guess for me would be somewhere between 970-976. We'll see.

[Steve]

HWRF wants to bring the boom.

[Uptownmeow]

In New Orleans. Trimmed the trees, restacked my sandbags and lifted ground level furniture up. Now we wait. Stay safe out there everyone

[Steve]

NAM 3km IR depiction at landfall. Looks like a rough go for the City of New Orleans based on the 3km. NAM 3km usually gets pressure pretty close in the last day. It's still lower than most, but it landfalls around 970 (rather than 960 it was showing last night and obviously overdone).

[Steve]

IMGUR is squirreling out on me. HMON hits at 968mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 02812&fh=9

HWRF should be soon.

Edit - HWRF comes in at 972.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 02812&fh=9

[Nimbus]

On Monday Cozumel was a big island, White sands was a big desert and Eric wasn't calling for a 16 mile wide eye at landfall. Landfall is going to make a lot of difference for the folks just west of NOLA as well as the surge models over to Mississippi and Alabama. Coming in fast like that the surge may peak early with winds shifting offshore after just a few hours. I'd expect tropical storm force winds a little further east than usual though.