ARB: INVEST 94A

[Nancy Smar]

94A INVEST 201116 1800 5.0N 73.0E IO 15 1010

[doomhaMwx]

94A INVEST 201117 0600 5.9N 72.7E IO 15 1008
94A INVEST 201117 0000 5.5N 73.5E IO 15 1008
94A INVEST 201116 1800 5.0N 74.2E IO 15 1010

[doomhaMwx]

94A INVEST 201120 0600 6.7N 63.4E IO 15 1010

ABIO10 PGTW 191800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 64.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 60.2E, APPROXIMATELY 494
NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 191214Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT BUILDING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
INVEST 94A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. OF NOTE, EIR
AND A 191430Z ASCAT-C PASS ALSO DEPICT A SECOND, WEAKER CIRCULATION
FORMING A FEW DEGREES EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CIRCULATION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94A WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

That nearby system is now Invest 95A.

[doomhaMwx]

ABIO10 PGTW 201800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 64.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.