BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

[Ian2401]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

that is not 90L

[BYG Jacob]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

Wrong storm my dude

[TheStormExpert]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

Huh?

[USTropics]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

Huh?

That's an image of Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. YellowEvan has been posting over there (viewtopic.php?f=77&t=120859&start=80), simply posted in the wrong thread is all.

[seahawkjd]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

Huh?

That's an image of Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. YellowEvan has been posting over there (viewtopic.php?f=77&t=120859&start=80), simply posted in the wrong thread is all.

So your saying Florida hasn't been upgraded to subcontinent status with its own Sri Lanka?

[USTropics]

Huh?

That's an image of Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. YellowEvan has been posting over there (viewtopic.php?f=77&t=120859&start=80), simply posted in the wrong thread is all.

So your saying Florida hasn't been upgraded to subcontinent status with its own Sri Lanka?

Correct, we haven't replaced the Florida Keys with Sri Lanka (yet). Maybe we can get some preseason fun, have JTWC forecast 90L

[alan1961]

Suprised this is no more than at tropical storm strength currently, probably only
about 55kn to 60kn at the moment but has a good solid core so no reason why
this can't grow a lot more before landfall.

[cycloneye]

I moved the posts from Yellow Evan and the others to this one.

[Kingarabian]

That's an image of Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. YellowEvan has been posting over there (viewtopic.php?f=77&t=120859&start=80), simply posted in the wrong thread is all.

So your saying Florida hasn't been upgraded to subcontinent status with its own Sri Lanka?

Correct, we haven't replaced the Florida Keys with Sri Lanka (yet). Maybe we can get some preseason fun, have JTWC forecast 90L

JTWC would be like: "What's 90L?".

[Abdullah]

The HWRF is going absolutely bonkers with this thing right now (or more precisely, in 96 hours).

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png[url]

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

It's more than likely this is reaching hurricane status or is one.

[TheStormExpert]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/711303229480239217/2020io01_amsusr89_202005161522.png?format=png

Hint of an eyewall but not high res.

Huh?

That's an image of Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. YellowEvan has been posting over there (viewtopic.php?f=77&t=120859&start=80), simply posted in the wrong thread is all.

I was just going to say! I didn’t think things escalated that quickly with newly formed TD #1.

[TorSkk]

Looks like it's been a major for a couple of hours

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1261667939188645890

[aspen]

Looks like it's been a major for a couple of hours

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1261667939188645890

Can’t wait for a 140 kt Cat 5 to be assessed as a 100 kt Cat 3....again.

(*cough* Ambali’s 18z update *cough*)

[aspen]

Talk about some warm SSTs: https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/sta ... 2158426113

[1900hurricane]

Latest ATMS pass.

[Yellow Evan]

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.9N 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.9N 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.1N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4N 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.7N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.5N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.6N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.9N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE RAIN BANDS IN A 161554Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED ESTABLISH THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON 45 KT WIND BARBS NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN A 161556Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 161553Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS INFORMED THE 34-KT WIND RADII ESTIMATES. WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS TRACKING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN ON THAT TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND TAU 84. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND A PEAK OF 105 KTS BY TAU 72 IS EXPECTED. LANDFALL WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 120. WITH SPREAD OF AROUND 275 NM AT TAU 120, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

[aspen]

Latest ATMS pass.

https://i.imgur.com/k0L83XQ.jpg

Still has a lot of work to do on that eyewall. Maybe it’s being disrupted a bit by some low-level shear.

[1900hurricane]

And now GPM with a little better resolution. Looks like it tried to develop concentric cores. Probably won't be rapidly intensifying until it sorts that out.