ATL: MARCO - Models

[CrazyC83]

It really depends on speed right now. If it keeps moving 20 mph, then the trough should pick it up. Otherwise, it's just going to keep going west. IMO, there's also a chance it fails to do anything, crosses Central America as a wave/low, then becomes an EPAC storm.

[Steve]

lol @ CMC. It crosses the Yucatan with 97L and hits south of the border as 98L comes steamrolling in to destroy stuff. TT has a jump of 18 hours, so I'm assuming 98L cannibalizes whatever was left of 97L.

And with that, good night all.

[Steve]

It really depends on speed right now. If it keeps moving 20 mph, then the trough should pick it up. Otherwise, it's just going to keep going west. IMO, there's also a chance it fails to do anything, crosses Central America as a wave/low, then becomes an EPAC storm.

ICON/GFS/CMC all crawl it for a few days around Honduras, Belize and Mexico. I don't think it's going in the EPAC per se, though you could see wave energy pushing that way. JMO

[GCANE]

You love those rosby waves

I do.
They drive a majority of the weather. Just about all outside of the tropics - baroclinic.

I always enjoy your input on that matter and when you break down where storms will moisture etc from. I’ve learned quite a bit from it.

Much thanks!!

[supercane4867]

06z GFS is more bullish on 97L than ever. Now has a hurricane in the Gulf.

[catskillfire51]

GFS is weakening on approach to mid Texas coast

[stormlover2013]

06 euro is more developed also on ECMWF ENS - Global Control

[lsuhurricane]

Notable uptick of TS and hurricane development for 97L on the 06z Euro Ensembles once it reaches the GOM

[stormlover2013]

send image

[Steve]

ICON valid 180 hours - 7pm next Tuesday. Weakening trend off Brownsville.

[Steve]

GFS @ 180 about the same location

[Steve]

CMC @ 180 hours takes it into Northern Mexico as 98L comes in over the top.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like the 12z UKMET is developing this for the first time in a few days. It's showing a TD or weak TS in the central Gulf early next week.

[Portastorm]

FWIW, Bastardi references Harvey and Bret (1999) and says they have similarities to 97L. I assume he is talking track given that both storms impacted similar (not quite the same) areas of the middle and lower Texas coast. Says he'll have a big spiel on Weatherbell today about it.

[stormlover2013]

euro ensembles

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Steve]

ICON still has some interest off the coast of Honduras in 75 hours. I'll link some maps later with the 18z runs if they show anything worth commenting on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1818&fh=75

[BobHarlem]

edit: yesterday's run:

12z gfs parallel, double whammy in Florida from two storms.

It has 97L as a 958mb hurricane landfalling in the panhandle, followed by 98L as a major landfall near largo.

Link to run

[lsuhurricane]

12z gfs parallel, double whammy in Florida from two storms.

It has 97L as a 958mb hurricane landfalling in the panhandle, followed by 98L as a major landfall near largo.

Again - this is yesterdays 12z run. Look at the date stamp

[Cpv17]

18z ICON has a td or weak ts in the southern Gulf in 5 days.

[Steve]

Here's the ICON's 18z @ 120 hours. Looks like 97L is breaking free of the Yucatan after spending a couple of days there. Lowest pressure the run shows in the WC is still about 1007 which is something we've been discussing for a couple of days. It'll be 7 hours or so to get another 180 hour run out of it. So this is where things stand now. As noted in the 12z model commentary above, ICON takes it toward south Texas and was in a weakening trend off Brownsville as 98L was moving up the FL Peninsula. We'll see if it sticks to those solutions. GFS should be available shortly.



Compare with the mostly barren GFS