ATL: LAURA - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#101 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:41 pm

Adrian or anybody else....do you have the 18z Euro?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#102 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:42 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#103 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:42 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.


I still think it will become a tropical storm. Maybe not a hurricane if the weakening trends continue, but before all is said and done, I bet we will still get a tropical storm out of it...

"Weakening trend?" It hasn't even formed yet...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#104 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:45 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.


I still think it will become a tropical storm. Maybe not a hurricane if the weakening trends continue, but before all is said and done, I bet we will still get a tropical storm out of it...

"Weakening trend?" It hasn't even formed yet...


I'd imagine he means weaker as compared to 12z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#105 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:46 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.


I still think it will become a tropical storm. Maybe not a hurricane if the weakening trends continue, but before all is said and done, I bet we will still get a tropical storm out of it...


huh?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#106 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:46 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:18z late intensity guidance is much weaker.


I still think it will become a tropical storm. Maybe not a hurricane if the weakening trends continue, but before all is said and done, I bet we will still get a tropical storm out of it...

"Weakening trend?" It hasn't even formed yet...


No what I meant is with the recent model coming in much weaker. I was saying that if other models jump on board and also weaken it, I still think it will make tropical storm status regardless...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#107 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:51 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Adrian or anybody else....do you have the 18z Euro?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#108 Postby lsuhurricane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:55 pm

Through 90 hours, the 18z Euro is much weaker compared to the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#109 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:57 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:Through 90 hours, the 18z Euro is much weaker compared to the 12z run.

Is it further north or south compared to 12z??


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#110 Postby lsuhurricane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:03 pm

Is it further north or south compared to 12z??


Exact same location. No difference even with notable change in intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#111 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:03 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:Through 90 hours, the 18z Euro is much weaker compared to the 12z run.

Is it further north or south compared to 12z??


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Looks a tad north but not much
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#112 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:04 pm

After watching Levi's video tonight I think I might wait another 48 hours to look at a model. Might.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#113 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:04 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:Through 90 hours, the 18z Euro is much weaker compared to the 12z run.

Is it further north or south compared to 12z??


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Looks a tad north if anything but not much at all
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#114 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:04 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:Through 90 hours, the 18z Euro is much weaker compared to the 12z run.



None of the models do anything extraordinary with 98L (intensity-wise) in the relative short term. IF the system ever "pops" it probably will happen west of 70W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#115 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:05 pm

toad strangler wrote:After watching Levi's video tonight I think I might wait another 48 hours to look at a model. Might.



Ya sure... Are you all stocked up if we do have to deal with one of these?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#116 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:05 pm

tropical tidbits doesn't seem to have the 18z Euro....maybe it's on another site. I only see the 12z one there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#117 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:06 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
toad strangler wrote:After watching Levi's video tonight I think I might wait another 48 hours to look at a model. Might.



Ya sure... Are you all stocked up if we do have to deal with one of these?


I was ready for a Cat 4 on June 1st. Like 99.5% ready :wink: Just have to buy more beer. That's it. Entire checklist and then some done.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#118 Postby DestinHurricane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:06 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:tropical tidbits doesn't seem to have the 18z Euro....maybe it's on another site. I only see the 12z one there.


You have to pay for 6Z/18Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#119 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:07 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:tropical tidbits doesn't seem to have the 18z Euro....maybe it's on another site. I only see the 12z one there.


18z and 6z Euro are pay only output. Not gonna see that on TT's
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#120 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:10 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:tropical tidbits doesn't seem to have the 18z Euro....maybe it's on another site. I only see the 12z one there.


You have to pay for 6Z/18Z


Okay, I'll look elsewhere then. thanks
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