ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

It needs to slow down to do anything.

[CaribJam]

The system seems to have gain some latitude, based on the NHC's "X".

[tailgater]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over
the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no
closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Historically TC have trouble developing from the Lesser Antilles to Eastern Jamaica, we will see if this one studied Eastern Caribbean History. Mid level still looks pretty good.

[MarioProtVI]

Big blowup right near the 18z position

Might be what gets this going and this is approaching DMIN so DMAX could be what pushes this over but wouldn’t be surprised if it spun up faster given satellite trends.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

I bet if we had a good ASCAT pass it would show an elongated but well defined llc given the recent low level convective structure and increasing southerly inflow.

[Visioen]

The million dollar question: will this blowup lead to an LLC?

Edit: damn Aric, don't answer my question before I have asked it lol

[Aric Dunn]

The million dollar question: will this blowup lead to an LLC?

Edit: damn Aric, don't answer my question before I have asked it lol

https://i.imgur.com/Zfl64ly.gif

the X is just scratching out a 12 hour old observation.

looks like there very well be a llc in there somewhere.

[tailgater]

Convection does seem more organized/concentrated today. I still think 15 will beat out 99L fo Nana though.

[Sanibel]

Will it become a hurricane before Yucatan?...

[Emmett_Brown]

Will it become a hurricane before Yucatan?...

Well, the HMON model brings it pretty close, 988 mb and strong TS winds. It has about 2.5 days over water to do it.

[Nimbus]

Will it become a hurricane before Yucatan?...

I hope not, the models have high pressure building over Texas in about 48 hours but the Atlantic ridge is forecast to recede back East leaving a weakness between the two anticyclones. None of the models or experts have considered this system strong enough or tracking north enough to feel the weakness.

[Aric Dunn]

that is an interesting feature... 15.9N 72.5 west

[Nimbus]

that is an interesting feature... 15.9N 72.5 west

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/99L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20200831.2115.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v.99LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-148N-722W.062pc.jpg

I was going to say if this pareidolia was an indicator the recon assumptions were about half a degree south.

[MississippiWx]

99L appears to be slowing down just a touch. This will help it organize in the traditionally favorable Western Caribbean. It also appears to have moved poleward today which will allow it more time over water. Minimal hurricane isn’t out of the question here.

[aspen]

To my amateur eye, 99L is looking better organized, with more deep convection and even some outflow in the W an S quadrants. The NHC’s next TWO is coming up soon and could see 99L’s chances of development bumped up further.

[Aric Dunn]

To my amateur eye, 99L is looking better organized, with more deep convection and even some outflow in the W an S quadrants. The NHC’s next TWO is coming up soon and could see 99L’s chances of development bumped up further.

I would assume they would up the chances.. but who knows.

[Nimbus]

Looks like a little anticyclone circulation coming off the tip of Cuba which may be the forecast temporary weakness in the ridge. You can't assume anything just looking at the WV imagery but I'm thinking there could be some model changes ahead if the current initializations continue trending more north and stronger? Could there be an asymptote in the modeling for this scenario?

[aspen]

To my amateur eye, 99L is looking better organized, with more deep convection and even some outflow in the W an S quadrants. The NHC’s next TWO is coming up soon and could see 99L’s chances of development bumped up further.

I would assume they would up the chances.. but who knows.

It remains 70/80, because they still can’t find evidence of a closed circulation trying to form.

[Aric Dunn]

To my amateur eye, 99L is looking better organized, with more deep convection and even some outflow in the W an S quadrants. The NHC’s next TWO is coming up soon and could see 99L’s chances of development bumped up further.

I would assume they would up the chances.. but who knows.

It remains 70/80, because they still can’t find evidence of a closed circulation trying to form.

No data in the last 12 hours.

some ship reports and a microwave is all we have.