ATL: TEDDY - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

They'll be back when the next few GFS runs inevitably end up showing a more western trekking storm. There's no way this is going to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

[gatorcane]

06Z GEFS animation. Lots of island hits here:

[aspen]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

They'll be back when the next few GFS runs inevitably end up showing a more western trekking storm. There's no way this is going to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

I wouldn’t doubt that so soon. It’s going to be hitting a region of insanely high MPIs in 5-6 days, and if the rest of the environment is favorable, this could quickly bomb out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

They'll be back when the next few GFS runs inevitably end up showing a more western trekking storm. There's no way this is going to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

I wouldn’t doubt that so soon. It’s going to be hitting a region of insanely high MPIs in 5-6 days, and if the rest of the environment is favorable, this could quickly bomb out.

I doubt it highly. I'd be pleasantly surprised, because that means this season is capable of producing long tracked, high ACE scoring systems in the MDR. Would make a track north of the islands and away from land more likely too, which is an obvious plus. But nothing about how this season has unfolded tells me this is going to be one of those storms. Still plenty of dry air and shear out there, high MPI or not.

[Kazmit]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

"Out to sea" does not mean "missing the US"

[SFLcane]

06Z GEFS animation. Lots of island hits here:

https://i.postimg.cc/TwSgfsn2/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh102-168.gif

Yep, strong signal for a sharp recurve now near the islands.

[chris_fit]

Last 6 runs of the GFS showing 500mb Heights - long ways out...

[SFLcane]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

They'll be back when the next few GFS runs inevitably end up showing a more western trekking storm. There's no way this is going to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

I doubt you will see tracking deep into the Caribbean. 2010 look is back

[cheezyWXguy]

Frances, Ike and Irma all had various runs that took them out to sea as well, before bending back. Historically, recurves from this area at this time are much more common, but I wouldn’t call it a guarantee yet. Making calls on the 10 day track right now requires a lot of assumptions, whether it’s a conus landfall or a recurve

[AutoPenalti]

Once again, I'm betting against the recent runs of the OTS camp. We've seen this time and again how much people bought into the run and later during the week were bit in the back as we got closer in time to their respective time frames. We are still 10 days away from verification. That's more than enough time.

[Spacecoast]

06z GEFS Tracks 0-144 hr: Stronger, slower members slightly more N @144 near 52W

[MJGarrison]

Through 84 hours on the 12Z GFS Rene is weaker and 95L is slower.


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[aspen]

12z ICON keeps this westward through 120 hours, but afterwards, it takes a 90 degree turn to the north due to Rene still wandering around as a weak TC or a remnant low.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs looks like it’s going to miss the islands. Slower and weaker this run, but still strong

[SFLcane]

12z gfs looks like it’s going to miss the islands. Slower and weaker this run, but still strong

Not even close for the islands. Like I said 2010 is back. There is little to no ridging near the islands.

[TheStormExpert]

At this rate the islands might not even have to worry about getting hit unless it fails to develop and intensify at the rate the GFS shows it doing so.

[TheStormExpert]

It’ll be interesting to see if the GEFS 12z swings north and east OTS as many were showing direct island threats. I’m leaning towards they will. Then comes the 12z Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

A very weak 591 dam ridge develops north of it a week out but there’s a weakness created by the area that’s to the NE of 95L so an OTS is more than likely.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't know guys, I just don't see this becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday like the GFS is suggesting. I feel like this is going to be a struggle-storm until it reaches 55W.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS saved animation. Recurves quite a bit east of the islands, yet another possible Bermuda threat: