ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MarioProtVI]

I smell the models failing once again with this.

NAM likes it however!

[us89]

Is it safe to assume that NHC won't send recon into this thing until it gets into the gulf?

Not scheduled until early afternoon tomorrow in the GOM.

That seems like a bad idea. Rapidly organizing tropical system bearing down on south Florida within 24 hours? I feel like you'd want as much data as you can get with a system like that - plus you feed the models some better data for potential future tracks beyond FL.

[ClarCari]

Is it safe to assume that NHC won't send recon into this thing until it gets into the gulf?

Not scheduled until early afternoon tomorrow in the GOM.

Since it’s already hovering in the Bahamas and close to southeast Florida there’s also gonna be plenty of land obs to gather wind info as well as radar so we could see some interesting data still going into tnite before recon tomorrow.

[BobHarlem]

Not much time to issue a TS Watch for the Florida Keys if this keeps pulling together this fast.

[StPeteMike]

I would give this a PTC now.

[Chemmers]

Looking more healthy by the hour

[BYG Jacob]

I'm beginning to see SW winds starting to flow into 96L over central FL, little by little a larger surface circulation is starting to get going.

https://i.imgur.com/bSlG07u.gif

Looks like Hanna consolidating in the gulf.

[SFLcane]

I'm beginning to see SW winds starting to flow into 96L over central FL, little by little a larger surface circulation is starting to get going.

https://i.imgur.com/bSlG07u.gif

Yea would need to see some obs..

[Ivanhater]

If this is indeed developing in the bahamas this becomes a much more serious threat for the northern gulf coast

[Blow_Hard]

If this is indeed developing in the bahamas this becomes a much more serious threat for the northern gulf coast

Totally agree. Pensacola west to Central Louisiana is what I'm thinking. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 90kt storm somewhere in that vicinity early next week.

[DestinHurricane]

If this is indeed developing in the bahamas this becomes a much more serious threat for the northern gulf coast

Yep, starting to get concerned for LA. For us though, I think the ridge will be too strong so should push over towards LA. But things can change of course.

[NDG]

I'm beginning to see SW winds starting to flow into 96L over central FL, little by little a larger surface circulation is starting to get going.

https://i.imgur.com/bSlG07u.gif

Yea would need to see some obs..

[Blow_Hard]

If this is indeed developing in the bahamas this becomes a much more serious threat for the northern gulf coast

Yep, starting to get concerned for LA. For us though, I think the ridge will be too strong so should push over towards LA. But things can change of course.

With ya there Destin. Probably get some decent rains in the Panhandle but IMHO this has Central GOM written all over it...

[DestinHurricane]

If this is indeed developing in the bahamas this becomes a much more serious threat for the northern gulf coast

Yep, starting to get concerned for LA. For us though, I think the ridge will be too strong so should push over towards LA. But things can change of course.

With ya there Destin. Probably get some decent rains in the Panhandle but IMHO this has Central GOM written all over it...

It will depend on where exactly a center forms. If it moves over the keys then I agree it's probably a C GOM problem. Over Miami or Ft Laud and maybe more concerning for us. We should know more tonight if a well defined LLC forms.

I'm just praying it doesn't shift east and hit somewhere in Bay, Walton or even Destin as that would put recovering areas on the dirty side. As we know, those trap doors can open this time of year and storms go poleward, that is my concern for panhandle.

[SFLcane]

I'm beginning to see SW winds starting to flow into 96L over central FL, little by little a larger surface circulation is starting to get going.

https://i.imgur.com/bSlG07u.gif

Yea would need to see some obs..

https://i.imgur.com/bq5KmvG.gif

Nice sharp wave axis...no west wind.

[Blow_Hard]

Yep, starting to get concerned for LA. For us though, I think the ridge will be too strong so should push over towards LA. But things can change of course.

With ya there Destin. Probably get some decent rains in the Panhandle but IMHO this has Central GOM written all over it...

It will depend on where exactly a center forms. If it moves over the keys then I agree it's probably a C GOM problem. Over Miami or Ft Laud and maybe more concerning for us. We should know more tonight if a well defined LLC forms.

I'm just praying it doesn't shift east and hit somewhere in Bay, Walton or even Destin as that would put recovering areas on the dirty side.

Certainly don't need any wind, that's for sure, but I'd be surprised to see our area get much more than some needed rain.

[tropicwatch]

Mission status for the Hurricane Hunters have yet to be updated for today. Would be nice if they could schedule a mission for today.

[Shell Mound]

Is it safe to assume that NHC won't send recon into this thing until it gets into the gulf?

Not scheduled until early afternoon tomorrow in the GOM.

That seems like a bad idea. Rapidly organizing tropical system bearing down on south Florida within 24 hours?

Based on current trends, 96L doesn’t seem to be organising rapidly. Yes, the mid-level and low-level circulations are gradually aligning, but there is still moderate to strong westerly shear, hence the misalignment of the ML and LLCs. Despite “feathery” anticyclonic outflow aloft, the overall structure is still quite tilted, no noticeable pressure falls are occurring, and a very broad, diffuse surface trough is in place. I don’t think this will become a TD or stronger until it enters the Gulf of Mexico, since VWS won’t start to decrease noticeably until then.

[Evil Jeremy]

Mission status for the Hurricane Hunters have yet to be updated for today. Would be nice if they could schedule a mission for today.

I'm not sure how beneficial scrambling a mission today would be. Regardless of if it closes off or not, the effects for SFL will generally be the same. Heavy, gusty rain. Don't need recon to know that.

That said, missions should be run immediately once this gets into the Gulf tomorrow.

[gfsperpendicular]

Yea would need to see some obs..

https://i.imgur.com/bq5KmvG.gif

Nice sharp wave axis...no west wind.

Only Nassau is at all close to the center, so it's hard to say whether there is a west wind. Like maybe there are some west winds west of Andros. Recon pls