ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Visioen]

Deep sustaining convection expanding. It's happening.

[Visioen]

This screams TD to me.

[Hammy]

Is it me or did the center reform closer to the convection over the last few hours?

[ClarCari]

They may even find a storm tomorrow

Edit: Hammy it’s not just you. I think convection may be building closer to it now. Just shows how quick these things just pop close to home..

[CrazyC83]

Since we'll need watches as soon as a track can be reliably drawn, I think we get PTC 22 at 4 am? Unless it's already a TC?

[Visioen]

I have a feeling coffee will be spit when people wake up.

[CrazyC83]

Comparing the 04Z ASCAT-C pass with satellite, I would be fairly confident now that we have a tropical depression. We'll see what the night shift at the NHC thinks, but TD 22 seems like a reasonable assessment.

[La Breeze]

Gut feeling is that this system may develop slightly but will not be a threat to the northern Gulf Coast - again, this is just a gut feeling. I'm thinking it's more of worry for Mexico or S. TX.

[Visioen]

I would kill for a visible shot. Can someone shine some light please?

[tiger_deF]

Atlantic, I need more sleep

[GCANE]

High-helicity towers going up.
Didn't I just say this yesterday?

GCANE, every time you start saying stuff like this, nasty things invariably start to happen. Who are you really?...

LOL
Just been watching stuff like this for some time and have read a few met papers.

[northjaxpro]

This system is well on its way. I definitely would not be shocked at all if Recon finds a decent TS upon their arrival later today.

Also, the 00Z EURO keeps this pinned down for several days over the Western GOM, then moves the cyclone slowly north/northeast beginning Tuesday and develops it into a 987 mb Cat 1 TC , making landfall in 192 hours near Gramd Isle Louisiana (9/25 00Z Friday)

[Extratropical94]

Special TWO: 90/90

Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better
organized this morning in association with a well-defined low
pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development and, if this recent development trend continues,
a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The
low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for
the next day or so before moving slowly northward to
northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[GCANE]

Comparing IR Satellite Analysis and CIMSS, it surprisingly appears GFS has initialized this well.
All the way from the boundary-layer and 700mb vort, mid-level circulations, and the Rossby wave.
GFS forecast maybe becoming more reliable for this one.

[GCANE]

Still under the anticyclone and no sign of any PV Streamers nearby.
Looks like this will be a solid warm core.

[GCANE]

IR Satellite analysis showing classic TD wind field with estimated maximum winds of 31 knots

[cycloneye]

[chaser1]

Could be a stretched N.E/S.W. COC trying to develop around 22N and 95W. I don't think we've got a true LLC quite developed yet but with a building anticyclone aloft, we very well may by late today. The window between T.D. and T.S will likely be 12 hr.'s or less.

[aspen]

I guess TD21 or Wilfred is coming today...another record is about to be flushed away.

It’s crazy how we’ve been tracking this disturbance for over a week — even before Sally’s invest was designated — and it could be around in the Gulf for another week.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a TD already but waiting for Recon is fine.