ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I'd give it about a 100% chance of being Eta. Most likely, it will move into Nicaragua/Honduras and that will be the end of it. Models indicate a second strong cold front moving across the Gulf Monday, with a giant ridge building over the Gulf by Monday. If it's going to turn NE before CA, then it's going to have to do so pretty soon, which doesn't appear likely.

Someone in the Zeta thread was mentioning the Mitch track of 1998. Mitch went into Central America and eventually emerged back over water near the northeast Yucatan then tracked over south Florida. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, but the models are suggestive of something moving back out over the water a few days past landfall. Most indicate a NE track staying well south of Florida, though.

As for final landfall, I'm putting all my money on Louisiana.

Well, looks like case closed then.

[Iceresistance]

Found 96L

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

[gatorcane]

I'd give it about a 100% chance of being Eta. Most likely, it will move into Nicaragua/Honduras and that will be the end of it. Models indicate a second strong cold front moving across the Gulf Monday, with a giant ridge building over the Gulf by Monday. If it's going to turn NE before CA, then it's going to have to do so pretty soon, which doesn't appear likely.

Someone in the Zeta thread was mentioning the Mitch track of 1998. Mitch went into Central America and eventually emerged back over water near the northeast Yucatan then tracked over south Florida. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, but the models are suggestive of something moving back out over the water a few days past landfall. Most indicate a NE track staying well south of Florida, though.

As for final landfall, I'm putting all my money on Louisiana.

Well, looks like case closed then.

I bolded above my thinking since the beginning on this. Of course there is a chance it loops around maybe going inland into CA and back over the Caribbean. But to get anything significant into the GOM or Florida at this point is very difficult due to building high pressure and the westerlies which may be here to stay now.

One thing I noted this morning is all the low low-level stratocumulus blanketing the Gulf behind the first front. The next front will bring even more in and that is the sign the warmth is being sucked out of the Gulf.

Saved loop:

[tomatkins]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

And with almost two months to spare.

[Iceresistance]

Can anyone ID a circulation inside 96L? I can't

[Iceresistance]

The upper level Anticyclone is not far away from 96L

[al78]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

In terms of named storms, not in terms of ACE.

Why does the map at the top of the page show TD Twenty-seven, which doesn't exist?

[wxman57]

Had a client email us asking why the Greek alphabet wasn't in "alphabetical order". How does "Eta" come after "Zeta"?

[Iceresistance]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

In terms of named storms, not in terms of ACE.

Why does the map at the top of the page show TD Twenty-seven, which doesn't exist?

Not updated yet because of how busy this season is.

[Iceresistance]

Had a client email us asking why the Greek alphabet wasn't in "alphabetical order". How does "Eta" come after "Zeta"?

The Greek Alphabet is different than ours.

[Nuno]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

In terms of named storms, not in terms of ACE.

Why does the map at the top of the page show TD Twenty-seven, which doesn't exist?

ACE is an arbitrary measurement though, subject to past seasonal averages. We should use this season as a textbook case to not place so much value into ACE when defining a season's effects or activity.

[AutoPenalti]

Had a client email us asking why the Greek alphabet wasn't in "alphabetical order". How does "Eta" come after "Zeta"?

I can't believe you have a client that would even ask you that.

[kevin]

Yes. Not to restart an OT ACE discussion, but ACE is very biased towards long lived open ocean systems, whose existence or absence doesn't per se determine how active or conductive a season is. But it does mostly determine the ACE, therefore putting seasons like 2020 with a more active Gulf compared to the open ocean at a disadvtange ACE wise. A season with a closed open ocean but hyperactive Gulf can still be hyperactive, but if you'd only use ACE it would be near impossible for such a season to reach hyperactive levels without at least one long lived storm in the Atlantic.

[aspen]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

In terms of named storms, not in terms of ACE.

Why does the map at the top of the page show TD Twenty-seven, which doesn't exist?

ACE is an arbitrary measurement though, subject to past seasonal averages. We should use this season as a textbook case to not place so much value into ACE when defining a season's effects or activity.

Since Eta seems so determined to become a Caribbean Cruiser despite November being two days away, I have a feeling it’ll end the “2020’s ACE wasn’t hyperactive” talk within the next week.

Quickly developing system + abnormally high SSTs/OHC + track that’ll take it through those warm waters for >4 days + likelihood of low shear and favorable anticyclones + possibility of stalling and turning north = a recipe for a powerful hurricane and at least a decent ACE generator.

[SFLcane]

I'd give it about a 100% chance of being Eta. Most likely, it will move into Nicaragua/Honduras and that will be the end of it. Models indicate a second strong cold front moving across the Gulf Monday, with a giant ridge building over the Gulf by Monday. If it's going to turn NE before CA, then it's going to have to do so pretty soon, which doesn't appear likely.

Someone in the Zeta thread was mentioning the Mitch track of 1998. Mitch went into Central America and eventually emerged back over water near the northeast Yucatan then tracked over south Florida. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, but the models are suggestive of something moving back out over the water a few days past landfall. Most indicate a NE track staying well south of Florida, though.

As for final landfall, I'm putting all my money on Louisiana.

See you next year! Wish those folks down in the Caribbean near CA good luck some serious flooding heading there Way.

[Iceresistance]

96L is a really small system right now.

[us89]

Had a client email us asking why the Greek alphabet wasn't in "alphabetical order". How does "Eta" come after "Zeta"?

I hope you gave them a one-line response with a link to the Wikipedia page on the Greek alphabet.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

Possibly the busiest if they decide to upgrade TD10 in the post season analysis. Either way still plenty of time to break the record for sure.

[Iceresistance]

Should become Eta sometime in the next 24-36 hours, tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season of all time.

Possibly the busiest if they decide to upgrade TD10 in the post season analysis. Either way still plenty of time to break the record for sure.

10? We are WAY past that!