ATL: ETA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Why not? All the models have this going into CA either in Nicaragua, Honduras, or at the border. Hard to go against that.

Though I will say the 12z Euro has a low emerging north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean in 7-8 days along with the GFS.

You don't account for beta drift right?

Sorry, but what is beta drift?

Within a rapidly intensifying hurricane, circulations associated with the Beta effect are sufficiently large to cause a westward-moving hurricane to drift northwestward.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Looks like quite a handful 12z EPS ensembles bury it into CA before re-emerging in the East Pacific. How’s this compare to 00z EPS?

I could be wrong but I think more members did the CA crossover this morning and yesterday

It looks like slightly less crossovers today
0z EPS:
https://i.ibb.co/RvnQ2DY/Capture10030c.jpg
12z EPS:
https://i.ibb.co/m0gVfxK/Capture10030d.jpg

Still a lot kill it over Central America. If and where it slows down or stalls will be key to survival.

[ClarCari]

All of the ensembles that dragged this deep into CA showed a weak system.
All the others that went north were the stronger ones...

Kinda as if a stronger system means a more northerly track hmmmmm.....

[cp79]

All of the ensembles that dragged this deep into CA showed a weak system.
All the others that went north were the stronger ones...

Kinda as if a stronger system means a more northerly track hmmmmm.....

Not necessarily. A lot of those making it strong are taking it into CA today. The only model now I see actually moving it north is the XTRAP. In other words the north possibilities are plummeting.

[ClarCari]

All of the ensembles that dragged this deep into CA showed a weak system.
All the others that went north were the stronger ones...

Kinda as if a stronger system means a more northerly track hmmmmm.....

Not necessarily. A lot of those making it strong are taking it into CA today. The only model now I see actually moving it north is the XTRAP. In other words the north possibilities are plummeting.

That does not change the fact at all that all those members keeping it in the CA and EPAC are weak members. The trend for a stronger system is absolutely still there! There is no denying that.
It’s not plummeting.
If anything it’s only strengthening the possibility of a stronger system eventually stalling and getting tugged up.

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

All of the ensembles that dragged this deep into CA showed a weak system.
All the others that went north were the stronger ones...

Kinda as if a stronger system means a more northerly track hmmmmm.....

Not necessarily. A lot of those making it strong are taking it into CA today. The only model now I see actually moving it north is the XTRAP. In other words the north possibilities are plummeting.

That does not change the fact at all that all those members keeping it in the CA and EPAC are weak members. The trend for a stronger system is absolutely still there! There is no denying that.

I could be wrong but,wouldn't those members crossing into CA keep,(or weaken further)? There are mountains in central Nicaragua.
The HWRF / HMON start out very strong,but weakens very quickly after landfall.
Those members that glance,or avoid CA become stronger because they avoided land, not necesarily avoiding land because they are stronger.

Of course, I could be wrong.

[ClarCari]

Not necessarily. A lot of those making it strong are taking it into CA today. The only model now I see actually moving it north is the XTRAP. In other words the north possibilities are plummeting.

That does not change the fact at all that all those members keeping it in the CA and EPAC are weak members. The trend for a stronger system is absolutely still there! There is no denying that.

I could be wrong but,wouldn't those members crossing into CA keep,(or weaken further)? There are mountains in central Nicaragua.
The HWRF / HMON start out very strong,but weakens very quickly after landfall.
Those members that glance,or avoid CA become stronger because they avoided land, not necesarily avoiding land because they are stronger.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Well in the case of the EPS track ensembles, they display the weak members first in that run that the stronger runs become buried in the chaos lol but allll of the strong members went more north.
I noticed some green members even weakened before “landfall” to blue further suggesting the biggest chance for this to stay south and buried into CA and the EPAC is if it stays pretty weak...which with those deep OHC’s is not very likely to happen.

[cp79]

All of the ensembles that dragged this deep into CA showed a weak system.
All the others that went north were the stronger ones...

Kinda as if a stronger system means a more northerly track hmmmmm.....

Not necessarily. A lot of those making it strong are taking it into CA today. The only model now I see actually moving it north is the XTRAP. In other words the north possibilities are plummeting.

That does not change the fact at all that all those members keeping it in the CA and EPAC are weak members. The trend for a stronger system is absolutely still there! There is no denying that.
It’s not plummeting.
If anything it’s only strengthening the possibility of a stronger system eventually stalling and getting tugged up.

Hwrf and Hmon crank it up pretty good and dive it SW into CA. The Para, too.

[GeneratorPower]

You can talk about models all day but just look at the evolution of the cold front over the continental US for nowcast. The extent to which that front pushes south will give you the answer on Eta.

[Jr0d]

All of the ensembles that dragged this deep into CA showed a weak system.
All the others that went north were the stronger ones...

Kinda as if a stronger system means a more northerly track hmmmmm.....

Not necessarily. A lot of those making it strong are taking it into CA today. The only model now I see actually moving it north is the XTRAP. In other words the north possibilities are plummeting.

Some ensembles take it NE after brushing CA.

Still I havent seen anything to convinces me it will turn north from the operational models.

[Nimbus]

I could be wrong but I think more members did the CA crossover this morning and yesterday

It looks like slightly less crossovers today
0z EPS:
https://i.ibb.co/RvnQ2DY/Capture10030c.jpg
12z EPS:
https://i.ibb.co/m0gVfxK/Capture10030d.jpg

Still a lot kill it over Central America. If and where it slows down or stalls will be key to survival.

I think the 18Z runs will be similar to the 12Z but if these models were trending we might get a giant hair ball off Central America. The habitats in those small coastal towns are not robust, however the population density is light till you get down around Puerto Cabezas.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS stalls this 50 miles east of Honduras/Nicaragua

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS may be coming in with a little different solution. Seems to be slowing down and doing a cyclonic loop offshore of Nicaragua.

[SouthFLTropics]

Uh oh... 150 hours and emerging into the Gulf of Honduras on a NW heading.

EDIT: Looks like it is hung up on the North coast of Honduras. Tons of rainfall for that region. I'm seriously concerned about the loss of life in Central America due to mudslides and flooding.

[cp79]

18z GFS may be coming in with a little different solution. Seems to be slowing down and doing a cyclonic loop offshore of Nicaragua.

Don’t forget it’s Happy Hour. I never take their 18z models seriously.

[SouthFLTropics]

174 hours and it starts moving North. Front coming down through Texas.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that the key is what it does near or over Central America. Inland and dead, near shore and weaken slowly or offshore and stay strong?

[SouthFLTropics]

Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

[cp79]

Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif

Lol happy hour GFS. Not happening. Good laughs, though.