ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
At this rate we could have PTC/TD 31 sooner rather than later...
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:At this rate we could have PTC/TD 31 sooner rather than later...
Likely with the visible spin on Satellite
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:At this rate we could have PTC/TD 31 sooner rather than later...
Likely with the visible spin on Satellite
And I have it here
This took a few minutes to process on Gifyu because it's 25.9 MB (Megabytes)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
TD 31...think about the average year is 11 storms...hell at this rate this season will bump up the average.
I dont like this...not one Iota!
I dont like this...not one Iota!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
ScottNAtlanta wrote:TD 31...think about the average year is 11 storms...hell at this rate this season will bump up the average.
I dont like this...not one Iota!
The season has got alota esplaining to do
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Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
My bets are on a TD by later tonight at the latest.
I’m shocked there isn’t yet a recon scheduled. Maybe tomorrow they’ll schedule one but since they usually release them two days before a flight get’s scheduled, it means we may not get a flight down there until Saturday...
I’m shocked there isn’t yet a recon scheduled. Maybe tomorrow they’ll schedule one but since they usually release them two days before a flight get’s scheduled, it means we may not get a flight down there until Saturday...
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Looks like 2020, or at least the models, won't rest until it gets a cat 5.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite
imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the
next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more
detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite
imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the
next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more
detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Looks like it is coming together nicely, looks like we will finally get some activity this year. The stronger solutions do seem to more north so how quickly it comes together is important. Hopefully they will schedule a flight tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:
The biggest thing that everyone here seems to talk about is a possible CAT 5 in November. But the only other November CAT 5 was in 1932 "Cuba" Hurricane
So there’s a chance
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Saved loop of 98L
EDIT: Is there a LLC in there?
EDIT: Is there a LLC in there?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
The previous times shows up to 145 knots on the same run
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
The 6 AM GFS run is having problems
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
The HWRF shows very quick development of 98L. By tomorrow afternoon, it is already a perfectly stacked TS with a thick moisture field and a developing small core, ready for intensification. We could see 98L become a TD as early as tonight if the HWRF’s development speed is true.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
aspen wrote:The HWRF shows very quick development of 98L. By tomorrow afternoon, it is already a perfectly stacked TS with a thick moisture field and a developing small core, ready for intensification. We could see 98L become a TD as early as tonight if the HWRF’s development speed is true.
Yes, HMON was calling for 145kt/909 MB hurricane at the midnight run. (No, I was sleeping back then)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:The 6 AM GFS run is having problems
What sort of problems is the GFS having Ice?...
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The 6 AM GFS run is having problems
What sort of problems is the GFS having Ice?...
Some model times never came up, it normally happens during the run so it can update the time. But after the run, something is wrong. It either failed to update the time or it had problems updating the run.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:underthwx wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The 6 AM GFS run is having problems
What sort of problems is the GFS having Ice?...
Some model times never came up, it normally happens during the run so it can update the time. But after the run, something is wrong. It either failed to update the time or it had problems updating the run.
Yes, very weird. 60 - 162 hours is still missing for 06z GFS.
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