ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#101 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:38 pm

At this rate we could have PTC/TD 31 sooner rather than later...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#102 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:41 pm

Weather Dude wrote:At this rate we could have PTC/TD 31 sooner rather than later...


Likely with the visible spin on Satellite
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#103 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:At this rate we could have PTC/TD 31 sooner rather than later...


Likely with the visible spin on Satellite


And I have it here
Image

This took a few minutes to process on Gifyu because it's 25.9 MB (Megabytes)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#104 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:46 pm

TD 31...think about the average year is 11 storms...hell at this rate this season will bump up the average.
I dont like this...not one Iota!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#105 Postby Wampadawg » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:50 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:TD 31...think about the average year is 11 storms...hell at this rate this season will bump up the average.
I dont like this...not one Iota!

The season has got alota esplaining to do :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#106 Postby ClarCari » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:25 am

My bets are on a TD by later tonight at the latest.

I’m shocked there isn’t yet a recon scheduled. Maybe tomorrow they’ll schedule one but since they usually release them two days before a flight get’s scheduled, it means we may not get a flight down there until Saturday...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#107 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:10 am

Didn't expect wake up to see this. LOL

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#108 Postby kevin » Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:30 am

supercane4867 wrote:Didn't expect wake up to see this. LOL

https://i.imgur.com/IU8lZKM.png


Looks like 2020, or at least the models, won't rest until it gets a cat 5.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#109 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:12 am

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite
imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the
next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more
detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#110 Postby xironman » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:46 am

Looks like it is coming together nicely, looks like we will finally get some activity this year. The stronger solutions do seem to more north so how quickly it comes together is important. Hopefully they will schedule a flight tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#111 Postby StAuggy » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:52 am

Iceresistance wrote:


The biggest thing that everyone here seems to talk about is a possible CAT 5 in November. But the only other November CAT 5 was in 1932 "Cuba" Hurricane


So there’s a chance :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#112 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:01 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#113 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:29 am

Saved loop of 98L

EDIT: Is there a LLC in there? :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#114 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:12 am

supercane4867 wrote:Didn't expect wake up to see this. LOL

https://i.imgur.com/IU8lZKM.png


The previous times shows up to 145 knots on the same run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#115 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:30 am

The 6 AM GFS run is having problems
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#116 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:32 am

The HWRF shows very quick development of 98L. By tomorrow afternoon, it is already a perfectly stacked TS with a thick moisture field and a developing small core, ready for intensification. We could see 98L become a TD as early as tonight if the HWRF’s development speed is true.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#117 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:33 am

aspen wrote:The HWRF shows very quick development of 98L. By tomorrow afternoon, it is already a perfectly stacked TS with a thick moisture field and a developing small core, ready for intensification. We could see 98L become a TD as early as tonight if the HWRF’s development speed is true.


Yes, HMON was calling for 145kt/909 MB hurricane at the midnight run. (No, I was sleeping back then)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#118 Postby underthwx » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:43 am

Iceresistance wrote:The 6 AM GFS run is having problems

What sort of problems is the GFS having Ice?...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#119 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:04 am

underthwx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 6 AM GFS run is having problems

What sort of problems is the GFS having Ice?...

Some model times never came up, it normally happens during the run so it can update the time. But after the run, something is wrong. It either failed to update the time or it had problems updating the run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#120 Postby kevin » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:05 am

Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 6 AM GFS run is having problems

What sort of problems is the GFS having Ice?...

Some model times never came up, it normally happens during the run so it can update the time. But after the run, something is wrong. It either failed to update the time or it had problems updating the run.


Yes, very weird. 60 - 162 hours is still missing for 06z GFS.
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