ATL: IOTA - Models

[Laminar]

Very good agreement on a bend to the WSW and into the EPAC - I would be shocked if this changes drastically. It is 2020. But here in the US I'm hoping we'll be OK.

Seems its going to be a case of how strong it gets, determining how far NW it wants to track before turning -

[chris_fit]

6 hours since the last models so the party starts again. ICON is the first model, 962 mbar at 138 hours. Stalls at the Honduras coast starting at 123 hours, doesn't landfall until 147 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/GUMerxZ.png

That's a massive high pressure to the N

[aspen]

The 12z CMC is FAST — Iota makes landfall in only 72 hours, roughly 2-3 days earlier than every other model. It might have something to do with how it keeps Iota on the weaker side.

[aspen]

12z HWRF is quite far north and has a more or less normal-sized core. 98L becomes TS Iota around midday Friday, and it reaches hurricane status Saturday afternoon/night.

[AutoPenalti]

Woah. HWRF is a whole degree North of 06z.

[aspen]

Woah. HWRF is a whole degree North of 06z.

It sure gives Jamaica quite a scare. Iota is a Cat 1/2 just a degree south of the island.

[Owasso]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Stronger than the 06z too.

[Owasso]

HMON a full degree north of 06z.

[aspen]

HWRF levels off in the low 950s and has a quick EWRC on Sunday. If Iota takes off earlier than the HWRF has it, then it will likely be stronger prior to that EWRC.

[supercane4867]

It seems that both HMON and HWRF have center formation taking place further north than global models indicate, which is quite possible given its current satellite signature.

[supercane4867]

12z HMON end of the run shows 939mb

[aspen]

It seems that both HMON and HWRF have center formation taking place further north than global models indicate, which is quite possible given its current satellite signature.

If that happens and Iota tracks well north of the Nicaragua-Honduras bump, then it could easily become a 20+ ACE major like the HWRF is showing. That would be enough to push 2020’s ACE total to the Atlantic’s Top 10.

This looks like an August or September storm, not MID NOVEMBER.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON run looks to be heading WNW to NW at the end. Has Cozumel and the Yucatan in its sights.

[cycloneye]

Here is HMON.

[Owasso]

HWRF ends with a 950mb cane aiming for the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET: Honduras/Nicaragua border area bound and then moves SW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.3N 79.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 72 13.3N 79.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 16.11.2020 84 14.0N 80.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 16.11.2020 96 14.1N 81.8W 1000 35
0000UTC 17.11.2020 108 15.0N 82.7W 995 44
1200UTC 17.11.2020 120 15.5N 83.7W 993 47
0000UTC 18.11.2020 132 15.6N 84.6W 993 46
1200UTC 18.11.2020 144 15.1N 85.1W 997 43

[SFLcane]

Well that’s interesting 12z HWRF is moving NW at the end of its run.

[TheProfessor]

Very tricky forecast here in terms of track and it will be dependent multiple things. The first thing that will be important is the strength of the system. If the HMON and HWRF are right the system will feel more of the upper level flow. Unfortunately the forecast for the upper level flow itself is quite complicated. Teleconnections are showing the NAO begin to trend negative and the PNA to trend positives. This favors an east coast trough, especially the closer to winter we get. Here's where things get tricky, where that trough sets up will be critical in deciding where this storm goes, assuming we have a deep storm that is. If the GFS is right and the trough is further off the east coast, then the storm will be under the influences of the western ridge and a deeper storm will dive even farther southwestward. However, if the Canadian is right and the trough is closer to the east coast or even centered over it, then the storm will either be caught in no man's land or will be under the influence of the eastern ridge, which would put Cuba and Florida under threat. However, since the Canadian has a weak storm we don't get to see this played out on the 12z Run. I think the HWRF and HMON are showing something in the middle right now and it's likely that the CMC is as well in terms of the 500 pattern. One would expect the Euro to be even more west with this pattern as it likes to amplify troughs more than the CMC and way more than the GFS, which is know for being to progressive with these patterns.

That said, I do think this is a storm that Jamaica and the Yucatan really need to pay attention to as well as Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

[SFLcane]

Very tricky forecast here in terms of track and it will be dependent multiple things. The first thing that will be important is the strength of the system. If the HMON and HWRF are right the system will feel more of the upper level flow. Unfortunately the forecast for the upper level flow itself is quite complicated. Teleconnections are showing the NAO begin to trend negative and the PNA to trend positives. This favors an east coast trough, especially the closer to winter we get. Here's where things get tricky, where that trough sets up will be critical in deciding where this storm goes, assuming we have a deep storm that is. If the GFS is right and the trough is further off the east coast, then the storm will be under the influences of the western ridge and a deeper storm will dive even farther southwestward. However, if the Canadian is right and the trough is closer to the east coast or even centered over it, then the storm will either be caught in no man's land or will be under the influence of the eastern ridge, which would put Cuba and Florida under threat. However, since the Canadian has a weak storm we don't get to see this played out on the 12z Run. I think the HWRF and HMON are showing something in the middle right now and it's likely that the CMC is as well in terms of the 500 pattern. One would expect the Euro to be even more west with this pattern as it likes to amplify troughs more than the CMC and way more than the GFS, which is know for being to progressive with these patterns.

That said, I do think this is a storm that Jamaica and the Yucatan really need to pay attention to as well as Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

It’s 2020 why not threaten Florida around thanksgiving.