ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

east of Barbados.. LLC coming together,. curved cloudlines showing up as that convection builds NE of Barbados. moving wnw..

[Blown Away]

yeppers...

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200728_23_35_flag.png

It means down the middle long ways through Hispaniola, remain shallow, and likely interaction with Cuba. Game over as a far as a potent wind event. Catastrophic rain event, possible for those islands. This slight SW hitch tonight likely a big game changer for PR, Bahamas, and CONUS. Hispaniola not so much. JMHO!

[SFLcane]

yeppers...

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200728_23_35_flag.png

It means down the middle long ways through Hispaniola, remain shallow, and likely interaction with Cuba. Game over as a far as a potent wind event. Catastrophic rain event, possible for those islands. This slight SW hitch tonight likely a big game changer for PR, Bahamas, and CONUS. Hispaniola not so much. JMHO!

Yeppers but we shall see.

[DestinHurricane]

Its over for Florida unless it can gain a ton of latitude very quickly. Enjoy your weekend!

[Evil Jeremy]

00z models are going to be interesting... these ASCAT passes should make it in them. with it that far south..

Did recon collect data for the 00z suite tonight?

That is in a few hours, that recon data will not be used for the 00z run, only for the 06z run. So early bird get's the worm and the good data.

Well, another question is how much of this afternoon's recon data made it into the 18z suite, as opposed to being held for 00z.

[Aric Dunn]

Did recon collect data for the 00z suite tonight?

That is in a few hours, that recon data will not be used for the 00z run, only for the 06z run. So early bird get's the worm and the good data.

Well, another question is how much of this afternoon's recon data made it into the 18z suite, as opposed to being held for 00z.

Does not really matter.. recon did not really sample much..

[TheStormExpert]

Looks a lot like scrambled eggs tonight. Hispaniola should definitely do the trick, assuming it can even gain enough latitude to get there. Euro sniffed this out before anyone else.

[STRiZZY]

That is in a few hours, that recon data will not be used for the 00z run, only for the 06z run. So early bird get's the worm and the good data.

Well, another question is how much of this afternoon's recon data made it into the 18z suite, as opposed to being held for 00z.

Does not really matter.. recon did not really sample much..

Ok thanks. Any idea which runs will get some useful data injected tomorrow?

[Blown Away]

11pm Predictions:
I say this S adjustment will be a highlight, much land interaction, and maintain PTC#9 as a 40 mph TS at day 5 into Keys/Miami.

[Kazmit]

With it's forward speed I'm not thinking it develops too much in the short term. I think its best shot is in the Bahamas after crossing over Hispaniola, which shouldn't be too damaging if it doesn't have a core yet by then.

[SFLcane]

11pm Predictions:
I say this S adjustment will be a highlight, much land interaction, and maintain PTC#9 as a 40 mph TS at day 5 into Keys/Miami.

I get those winds on a weekly bases with severe storms.

[TheProfessor]

I'm seeing way too many "It's over for.." tonight. Let's not forget that the models were sold on Dorian passing over Hispaniola only for the center reformation to happen and it skirted Puerto Rico. Until there is a solid core formed and the chances for center relocations is low, everyone from Texas to New Newfoundland should be watching this.

[TallyTracker]

With it's forward speed I'm not thinking it develops too much in the short term. I think its best shot is in the Bahamas after crossing over Hispaniola, which shouldn't be too damaging if it doesn't have a core yet by then.

I agree completely. Fay ‘08 went over Hispaniola right after formation and little damage was done since there was no core. Florida is far from out of the woods with this one as it would likely not be stronger than 60 mph at Hispaniola landfall.

[STRiZZY]

I'm seeing way too many "It's over for.." tonight. Let's not forget that the models were sold on Dorian passing over Hispaniola only for the center reformation to happen and it skirted Puerto Rico. Until there is a solid core formed and the chances for center relocations is low, everyone from Texas to New Newfoundland should be watching this.

Well said, sometimes on here it's like we're in a sitcom every hurricane season where the reset button is hit and a ton of people forget that almost anything can happen. Especially early on nothing is set in stone and the only certainty is uncertainty.

[Vdogg]

Its over for Florida unless it can gain a ton of latitude very quickly. Enjoy your weekend!

It’s not over for Florida or anywhere for that matter. This storm has been declared dead more times than I can count. Wouldn’t make such a definitive statement with convection building like this.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm seeing way too many "It's over for.." tonight. Let's not forget that the models were sold on Dorian passing over Hispaniola only for the center reformation to happen and it skirted Puerto Rico. Until there is a solid core formed and the chances for center relocations is low, everyone from Texas to New Newfoundland should be watching this.

and it’s gotten worse...

[TheStormExpert]

11pm Predictions:
I say this S adjustment will be a highlight, much land interaction, and maintain PTC#9 as a 40 mph TS at day 5 into Keys/Miami.

I get those winds on a weekly bases with severe storms.

Please! Severe thunderstorms produce winds upwards of 50-60mph here in S.FL, a 40mph TS is nothing more than a blustery day. Just think Bonnie (2010).

[SFLcane]

I'm seeing way too many "It's over for.." tonight. Let's not forget that the models were sold on Dorian passing over Hispaniola only for the center reformation to happen and it skirted Puerto Rico. Until there is a solid core formed and the chances for center relocations is low, everyone from Texas to New Newfoundland should be watching this.

The center did adjust further south per NHC and that will more then likely place a call with the shredder. NHC expects this to become a TS tonight or Wednesday but based on satellite and lastest ASCAT we are definitely not close.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1288294021929082880

[TheStormExpert]

I'm seeing way too many "It's over for.." tonight. Let's not forget that the models were sold on Dorian passing over Hispaniola only for the center reformation to happen and it skirted Puerto Rico. Until there is a solid core formed and the chances for center relocations is low, everyone from Texas to New Newfoundland should be watching this.

It’s doing the complete opposite of what Dorian was doing. I have very little concern right now with this. Maybe a passing shower or two but chances of a hurricane look very slim right now.