ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1021 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:42 pm

18z HWRF is running...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1022 Postby Camerooski » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:45 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:18z HWRF is running...

Already considerably stronger at 12 hours, we'll have to see if it verifies, but looking at the imagery it seems a bit far-fetched imo
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1023 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:47 pm

HMON is running as well. Looks very in line with the 12z through 36 hours. A slight tick faster.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1024 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:52 pm

HMON is SW of the 12z at 42 hours as a Cat 1. Just off the NE Coast of the DR.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1025 Postby Camerooski » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:56 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON is SW of the 12z at 42 hours as a Cat 1. Just off the NE Coast of the DR.

If it gets tangled in Hispaniola, it's over Erika part two. Must stay north.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1026 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:57 pm

HWRF-Para is running as well and is very much like the 12z run so far. Keep in mind this was the HWRF version that made landfall in Miami on the 12z run as a Cat 1 cane.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1027 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:59 pm

HWRF looks like it's going to pass right over PR as a TS.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1028 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:02 pm

HWRF keeps having a strengthening trend. Quite interesting
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1029 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:03 pm

HWRF is south of 12z run thus far.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1030 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:04 pm

18z HWRF has a closed circulation 1 hour from now.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1031 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:06 pm

HMON :eek:

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1032 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:10 pm

HWRF does some sort of jump/reformation north of PR
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1033 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:10 pm

HWRF and HMON again doing their old trick of deepening a PTC too fast when there is no well-defined closed circulation established yet.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1034 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:12 pm

HMON, left of 12z and stronger

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1035 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:12 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1036 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:14 pm

SFLcane wrote:HWRF is south of 12z run thus far.


Yep, south and slower which may allow the trap door to open to the north...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1037 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:17 pm

HWRF a smidge NE of 12z and stronger

12z vs 18z

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1038 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:19 pm

How much this thing consolidates tomorrow is going to be critical.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1039 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:19 pm

HMON TREND

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1040 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:19 pm

Saw this ~150mb structure on the Hmon run which caught my attention, I am not sure what this could be so does anybody have an idea?
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