ATL: LAURA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

This is gonna leave a mark...

[Cat5James]

Canadian was decent on genesis, but the track?
https://i.imgur.com/S6bOBYK.png

That track is within the current cone

[Steve]

CMC has punishment for SEFL

[lsuhurricane]

Immediate differences other than intensities between the Canadian and GFS are how the SE ridge is oriented or placed. GFS maintains a level ridge just off the SE coast which helps to squash any northern movement.

[Steve]

Canadian was decent on genesis, but the track?
https://i.imgur.com/S6bOBYK.png

That track is within the current cone

It is. I'm not making a value judgment, I'm just throwing out the question mark about the track. I don't have an opinion yet. I probably should have said will it get the track.

[DestinHurricane]

CMC 980 mb landfall near Boca Raton. That track is certainly a possibility.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 00z HMON and HWRF runs have commenced. Let's see if they decide to go ballistic again. My guess is that if they pass North of the islands we will see some fireworks from these two again tonight.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the HWRF initialized pretty good. HMON perhaps not as well. Unfortunately we can't compare to the 18z runs since they were for 98L and have been wiped off of TT and replaced with TD13.

[SoupBone]

That GFS run is way further west than it's been for the life of this system I think.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS PARA Ensemble says that more north movement may be in the cards:

00z



18z vs 00z

[Shell Mound]

00Z HWRF/HMON may shift farther east as well and could curve just offshore of the east coast of FL, based on current trends. Of course we shall see.

A really strong system would be more likely to sense the shortwave impulses to the north and plough through the western side of the narrow ridge.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET briefly loses the system before picking it back up just north of PR. Here are the plots:

Code: Select all

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.08.2020  18.9N  64.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.08.2020  19.4N  68.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2020  20.6N  72.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.08.2020  21.2N  76.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2020  22.5N  79.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.08.2020  23.9N  83.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2020  25.6N  86.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2020  27.7N  88.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

[DestinHurricane]

00Z HWRF/HMON may shift farther east as well and could curve just offshore of the east coast of FL, based on current trends. We shall see.

What current trends? A GFS run went way west and a CMC stayed the same.

[sponger]

The CMC really hammers S Florida. Is there any info on what changes were made to improve this model? It was a joke a few short years ago and now is somehow worthy of discussion and consideration? SFL residents should be preparing anyway for what could be an epic 2nd half of the season regardless of where this ends up.

[caneseddy]

What I'm finding interesting so far is how on this latest batch of runs they are narrowing to a particular area. Normally, you would have a bigger spread with models showing OTS, one showing Carolina, or an East Coast scraper. So far, all these runs show an impact from an area from South Florida to the Straits/Cuba.

Of course this could all change in subsequent runs and I could be wrong

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[Shell Mound]

00Z HWRF/HMON may shift farther east as well and could curve just offshore of the east coast of FL, based on current trends. We shall see.

What current trends? A GFS run went way west and a CMC stayed the same.

The parallel GEFS ensembles shifted northeast while near the east coast of Florida.

Additionally, the EPS and CMC show northwesterly flow over the Northeastern U.S. and several small shortwaves rotating over the top of the narrow ridge.

A strong system, especially if it is large, would be more likely to sense those impulses and then curve earlier, given models’ underestimating 98L’s future intensity.

[CrazyC83]

It seems that a stronger storm sooner would be more apt to run the ridge, miss the islands then make a run at Florida as the trough would at least tug it northward (i.e. CMC solution). However, if it stays weak, it appears that it would run through the islands and then into the Gulf untouched by the trough (i.e. GFS solution). The Euro will provide another perspective too probably.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS Ensemble shows a slightly larger spread at 66 hours vs 18z

[AutoPenalti]

00Z HWRF/HMON may shift farther east as well and could curve just offshore of the east coast of FL, based on current trends. We shall see.

What current trends? A GFS run went way west and a CMC stayed the same.

The parallel GEFS ensembles shifted northeast while near the east coast of Florida.

Additionally, the EPS and CMC show northwesterly flow over the Northeastern U.S. and several small shortwaves rotating over the top of the narrow ridge.

A strong system, especially if it is large, would be more likely to sense those impulses and then curve earlier, given models’ underestimating 98L’s future intensity.

A hurricane doesn’t just plow through a ridge...

[CrazyC83]

GEFS Ensemble shows a slightly larger spread at 66 hours vs 18z

https://i.imgur.com/2wQeJto.gif

That could be a sign there is uncertainty about the strength of the ridge? Maybe an earlier development means it will pick up a higher steering flow?