ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Aric showing no love for TD 13, at least because I haven’t seen him post within the past couple of hours

Maybe he's Dunn for the day

I also spend more time in the Discord S2K channels.

[aspen]

Only 12 hours of existence and already people are doubting this survives. It wasn’t supposed to have it easy until after passing north of the Lesser Antilles, and it’s behaving like it’s supposed to at this point: struggling as a weak TC. We still have several days to watch this, and it’s likely to encounter much more favorable conditions after 48-72 hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Only 12 hours of existence and already people are doubting this survives. It wasn’t supposed to have it easy until after passing north of the Lesser Antilles, and it’s behaving like it’s supposed to at this point: struggling as a weak TC. We still have several days to watch this, and it’s likely to encounter much more favorable conditions after 48-72 hours.

we're just going to have to deal with all the posts doubting this over the next 3 days. it isn't isn't supposed to ramp up until sunday.

[Hurricaneman]

Only 12 hours of existence and already people are doubting this survives. It wasn’t supposed to have it easy until after passing north of the Lesser Antilles, and it’s behaving like it’s supposed to at this point: struggling as a weak TC. We still have several days to watch this, and it’s likely to encounter much more favorable conditions after 48-72 hours.

Like said in my forecast the next 24hrs will be rough for 13 but after that all systems go

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1296489719891730434

[gatorcane]

As I have been saying for days, there is alot of dry air (SAL) around not to mention look at the dry air (orange and now even reds showing up so really dry air) ahead WV loop link below. Also some SW shear from the UL to the north will also help inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days. Why NHC is not mentioning these inhibiting factors I am not sure. Conditions will improve as the depression moves north of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas though. I expect a possible increase in organization there but too many inhibiting factors to suggest a major hurricane approaching South Florida still looking at things. A tropical storm or low-end hurricane might be possible, I think the NHC forecast on intensity looks about right for now.

Summary of inhibiting factors:

1) TD moving too quickly
2) Dry air issues from the SAL which will continue as TD moves west into the Bahamas. This becomes particularly problematic if a good core hasn't developed.
3) SW shear from ULL impacting any kind of core developing over the next couple of days.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

with WV image markup that I did:

[Ivanhater]

We are once again having to delete posts that are getting off topic.

Keep the discussion on topic

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1296498675724759041

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like complete crap! Likely no named storm today. It’s more likely that TD #14 becomes Laura and this becomes Marco at the moment.

[abajan]

The intermediate advisory is late.

[NDG]

I can definitely see an LLC north of the MLC racing to the WNW, convection trying to keep up with it. Don't expect much organization until it reaches the Leeward Islands.

[Aric Dunn]

I can definitely see an LLC north of the MLC racing to the WNW, convection trying to keep up with it. Don't expect much organization until it reaches the Leeward Islands.

HWRF has been showing this happening. still interacting with that vorticity SE of barbados. once it rotates north of that feature it should begin to pop convection and slow down some.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The intermediate advisory is late.

It's up for me.

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 700 MI...1120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[psyclone]

Even if our system degenerates back into an open wave (certainly possible) the fundamental question (at least in my mind) is do we maintain a disturbance that will continue west northwestward briskly that may eventually end up in an area more conducive for development? In my opinion the answer there is more likely than not and that easier bar to jump is probably the more important one. The prospect a rapid, close in development is definitely something to consider. BTW as a side question, have we ever had a depression drop down to a PTC? Perhaps the NHC would just opt to maintain a vigorous disturbance as a TD (if they anticipate redevelopment) in the interest of continuity and not cluster bombing the public with weather geek alphabet soup.

[SouthFLTropics]

I can definitely see an LLC north of the MLC racing to the WNW, convection trying to keep up with it. Don't expect much organization until it reaches the Leeward Islands.

HWRF has been showing this happening. still interacting with that vorticity SE of bermuda. once it rotates north of that feature it should begin to pop convection and slow down some.

Look at hi-res visible you can definitely see a vigorous LLC spinning under that sparse convection. It is most likely tilted from the MLC right now and outrunning it at the moment. The fact it has such a vigorous circulation is enough keep me on my toes and not put as much weight into what models may or may not be showing at the moment.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm not trying to say in anyway these storms will end up the same but we should all remember what happened with Andrew. Struggled for days barely holding onto life then it found some good conditions and the rest is history.

Again, not saying these storms will end up being the same in anyway (it was just easy to see parallels with it struggling and the expected track) but you never know. I'm not writing this off until there is 100% nothing left of it.

[hohnywx]

I'm not trying to say in anyway these storms will end up the same but we should all remember what happened with Andrew. Struggled for days barely holding onto life then it found some good conditions and the rest is history.

Again, not saying these storms will end up being the same in anyway but you never know. I'm not writing this off until there is 100% nothing left of it.

Well that's good considering it is forecast to be a hurricane in 4 days.

It seems like some people are expecting this to look like Andrew right now...it's a depression. It was never supposed to rapidly intensify in this area. Trust the NHC.

[wxman57]

That tiny vortex the NHC identified as a "center" appears to have blown apart.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1296489719891730434?s=21

I think this is a great point and have been pondering the same thing. I think much has to do with timing, orientation of the two systems, and whether TD13 will have yet developed an adequate upper level anticyclone itself. TD14 has a larger envelope and is upstream. We could easily see it's outflow disrupt TD13's... however, if the two storms are close in latitude then a broad anticyclone could potentially exist east to west and vent both systems. Near to mid term though, it's reasonable to think a negative impact on 13 will occur.

[MarioProtVI]

That tiny vortex the NHC identified as a "center" appears to have blown apart.

I still see a vigorous LLC on satellite. Doesn’t look to have “blown apart”