ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1061 Postby hohnywx » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:25 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:There's a very good reason why two hurricanes have never been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. If 13L gets a lot stronger than anticipated, 14L will remain weaker due to the former's outflow. This is what the HWRF is showing. Conversely, the opposite could occur, where 14L ramps up more than expected and becomes a hurricane in the Gulf, weakening 13L as it enters the Gulf. Very strange situation for sure.


I didn't want to answer this in the model thread, but see below from Dr. Phil Klotzbach:

Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said there has never been two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. There is precedent, however, for two tropical storms to occupy the Gulf simultaneously. According to Klotzbach, the 1933 storms dubbed Treasure Coast and Cuba-Brownsville, and the 1959 storms Beulah and an unnamed system were in Gulf of Mexico together.


https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200820/new-florida-is-in-path-of-potential-hurricane-td-14-forms-in-central-caribbean#:~:text=Colorado%20State%20University%20hurricane%20researcher,Mexico%20at%20the%20same%20time.&text=According%20to%20Klotzbach%2C%20the%201933,in%20Gulf%20of%20Mexico%20together.

So, while not hurricanes, tropical systems have rarely co-existed together in the Gulf. And our information only goes back as far as storms were recorded. So it will be interesting to see if we get yet another record in 2020.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1062 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:28 pm

Not a downstream prediction, but just an observation. TD 14 looks impressive and will likely be upgraded by tonight. TD 13 is looking like trash and would be shocked if upgraded before tomm. That's far from saying it is dead - simply rather salty at the moment
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1063 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:30 pm

THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


Image
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1064 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:31 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
wxman57 wrote:That tiny vortex the NHC identified as a "center" appears to have blown apart.

I still see a vigorous LLC on satellite. Doesn’t look to have “blown apart”


What you’re seeing Mario is the displaced MLC, it seems to have opened up into a wave or we’ve possibly been following an eddy around a larger circulation, it’s basically an open wave but that was to be expected until it gets out from the Polar Streamer after 24hrs and it’s all systems go from there

Kind of reminds me of a similar environment that Andrew had in 1992 where it went under one of those polar streamers and almost opened up but the environment to the west was high octane.

I’m not expecting another Andrew but a hurricane of some type can’t be ruled out
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1065 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:35 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
abajan wrote:The intermediate advisory is late.


It's up for me.

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 700 MI...1120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Thanks. A few minutes after I posted, I noticed this page was updated. Cycloneye must have experienced the same issue, as the advisory in the relevant S2K thread was posted at 2:10 PM.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1066 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:36 pm

So TD13 is a struggling weak TC with a displaced CoC.

Basically what I expected for today. It’s tiny and fragile, so this marginally conductive environment isn’t great for it, but I’m not doubting its potential down the road. Perhaps it could open up and then re-develop closer to the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1067 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


https://i.ibb.co/kyWRSJB/5.gif

Speaking of the vort SE of Barbados, what exactly is going on there? Should Barbados expect gusty winds from that?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1068 Postby CaribJam » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


https://i.ibb.co/kyWRSJB/5.gif


Aric,

What is the potential of the vorticity SE of Barbados?
Could it take on its separate identity? (Is it robust enough?)
Could it associated with the western blob we had earlier this week?

Just wondering... based on the various comments I have been reading from you pro's.

Thanks for the response.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1069 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:39 pm

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


https://i.ibb.co/kyWRSJB/5.gif

Speaking of the vort SE of Barbados, what exactly is going on there? Should Barbados expect gusty winds from that?


I would imagine so. that long tail from td13 should also get dragged across most of the islands tomorrow.

The vorticity should get strung out as td13 rotates to the north and NW of it.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1070 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:40 pm

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 700 MI...1120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


1008 MB TD in a not particularly favorable climate what do we expect?
06Z and 12Z runs have this crossing Florida as a pretty impressive storm and 14 is headed for mid gulf Coast so I guess we will be busy.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1071 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:That tiny vortex the NHC identified as a "center" appears to have blown apart.


That’s about all she wrote then.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1072 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


https://i.ibb.co/kyWRSJB/5.gif


I see nothing in that loop remotely close to a circulation.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1073 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:43 pm

I'm starting to think the Euro had it right all along with this, lots of mid-level shear out of the west and it seems the LLC is starting to move away from the CDO . Certainly not looking healthy and lagging quite a bit in organization compared to where a lot of the strengthening models had it by now.

On a side note is there another good model site that isn't TT? It's becoming slow to the point of being useless.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1074 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


https://i.ibb.co/kyWRSJB/5.gif


I see nothing in that loop remotely close to a circulation.

I mean who would if it's covered in clouds... :lol:
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ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1075 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:44 pm

That hazy look is a bad sign...

Headed out now for batteries, water, and to fuel up the car...
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1076 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THe circ is quite happy and well defined lol.
convection should come back shortly over the next several hours. still interacting with the vort SE of barbados.


https://i.ibb.co/kyWRSJB/5.gif


I see nothing in that loop remotely close to a circulation.


C'mon guys lol, I guess your gonna make me have to look huh??
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1077 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:46 pm

I see an outflow boundary moving away from what WAS that weak vortex. Vortex is gone, though.

Image
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1078 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:47 pm

Nothing remotely close to a closed circulation at the moment.

Image
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1079 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:49 pm

Regardless of lack of LLC, don't think NHC will downgrade this considering what the meso-scale guidance shows.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1080 Postby cainjamin » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:52 pm

Looking like dry air, increasing shear and a fast forward movement have really handicapped TD13's ability to consolidate. I agree that NHC will continue advisories in the short term. Conditions look to be more favourable as it approaches the Bahamas, but if there's not much left when it get's there it may not have enough time to get it's act together. If TD14 is stronger than forecast, however, shear from it's outflow may also help to inhibit significant developement. I don't envy the NHC having to forecast both of these storms at once when the models have been so unreliable.
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