ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=ir

Some -90C towers popping on Southern eyewall.

Gonna give us some sick gravity waves in future sat loops

[kevin]

It's almost like the Atlantic took NHC's statement that they would not retire Greek names as a challenge. I hope everyone in its path evacuates or gets to a safe place. If this really makes landfall in Yucatan the damage will be catastrophic.

[GCANE]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=ir

Some -90C towers popping on Southern eyewall.

Lightning strike patterns showing the trail left by the rotating hot towers.
Cirrus layering continuing.
HWRF is very likely correct in forecasting that this will punch into the stratosphere.

[Ian2401]

recon diving, should be there in 30-40mins

[tiger_deF]

I'm furious you guys introduced me to the one minute GOES-16 satellite images, never before have I been able to feed my tropical obsession like this

[plasticup]

It's almost like the Atlantic took NHC's statement that they would not retire Greek names as a challenge. I hope everyone in its path evacuates or gets to a safe place. If this really makes landfall in Yucatan the damage will be catastrophic.

Yeah this is a generational storm. Unless something very unexpected happens I expect Mexico to petition for its retirement. Probably America too.

[Shell Mound]

It's weird that we have a cat 4 storm with a perfect CDO but an eye that is so small and cloud filled. It's almost scarier looking because it's a sign that it is nowhere near leveling off in intensity. Once it clears out it's going to look insane.

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

Once it clears out, I think Delta will easily surpass Wilma in terms of both pressure and MSW, given current trends and compact size/core. In fact, I think this could easily go up to 170+ knots and sub-880 mb, similar to and rivalling Patricia, and perhaps being similar to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was likely even stronger than its official 160-knot MSW indicates, given what we know today about similarly sized systems undergoing ERI. Personally, I think Delta will come close to Patricia’s peak intensity, given how conducive conditions are pre-Yucatán and how much time it has left over record-warm OHC before striking the Yucatán Peninsula. My estimate: 170–185 knots, 870–75 mb prior to and during landfall on the Yucatán. Fortunately, Delta is unlikely to be a large system for the remainder of its lifespan, minimising later surge and wind impacts on the N Gulf Coast of the U.S., given reduced storm surge due to compact size, along with strong vertical wind shear, dry air, and lower OHC (shallow shelf waters) near the N Gulf Coast. I’m thinking only a low-end Cat-2 (85 knots) or so striking Louisiana near Franklin–Morgan City.

[Cyclenall]

NHC at 11:00 : upgrades to Cat 3

Delta at 11:15 : lol

NHC at 11:15 : pikachu face

Reminds me of when the NHC had Wilma at 95 knots at 11:00 pm, then 15 minutes later recon found its pressure to be 901 mb (if I'm remembering that correctly, it may have been 1am+).

I like Delta's Wikipedia opening sentence, "Hurricane Delta is currently an explosively intensifying and very powerful Category 4 major hurricane that is impacting Jamaica while threatening the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the Gulf Coast of the United States.

No eye on NRL WV imagery yet.

[Shell Mound]

It's almost like the Atlantic took NHC's statement that they would not retire Greek names as a challenge. I hope everyone in its path evacuates or gets to a safe place. If this really makes landfall in Yucatan the damage will be catastrophic.

Yeah this is a generational storm. Unless something very unexpected happens I expect Mexico to petition for its retirement. Probably America too.

Probably Josh Morgerman* had no idea he’d be facing something even more extreme than Dorian, too! He is probably flying to Cancún as we speak/type.

*ICyclone

[plasticup]

It's almost like the Atlantic took NHC's statement that they would not retire Greek names as a challenge. I hope everyone in its path evacuates or gets to a safe place. If this really makes landfall in Yucatan the damage will be catastrophic.

Yeah this is a generational storm. Unless something very unexpected happens I expect Mexico to petition for its retirement. Probably America too.

Probably Josh Morgerman had no idea he’d be facing something even more extreme than Dorian, too! He is probably flying to Cancún as we speak/type.

This will never rival Dorian in terms of impact. Sitting perfectly still as a Cat 5 over land for >24 hours. That was just sickening.

[EquusStorm]

Quite the historic day...

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Delta may be able to hold onto more of it's strength though due to the forward speed. Going slower would allow the shear, cooler water . . etc to rip her apart, but with a faster forward speed. she may not lose as much. Not a good thing for where ever landfall ends up being.

[Blinhart]

It's weird that we have a cat 4 storm with a perfect CDO but an eye that is so small and cloud filled. It's almost scarier looking because it's a sign that it is nowhere near leveling off in intensity. Once it clears out it's going to look insane.

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

Once it clears out, I think Delta will easily surpass Wilma in terms of both pressure and MSW, given current trends and compact size/core. In fact, I think this could easily go up to 170+ knots and sub-880 mb, similar to and rivalling Patricia, and perhaps being similar to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was likely even stronger than its official 160-knot MSW indicates, given what we know today about similarly sized systems undergoing ERI. Personally, I think Delta will come close to Patricia’s peak intensity, given how conducive conditions are pre-Yucatán and how much time it has left over record-warm OHC before striking the Yucatán Peninsula. My estimate: 170–185 knots, 870–75 mb prior to and during landfall on the Yucatán. Fortunately, Delta is unlikely to be a large system for the remainder of its lifespan, minimising later surge and wind impacts on the N Gulf Coast of the U.S., given reduced storm surge due to compact size, along with strong vertical wind shear, dry air, and lower OHC (shallow shelf waters) near the N Gulf Coast. I’m thinking only a low-end Cat-2 (85 knots) or so striking Louisiana near Franklin–Morgan City.

What makes you think it won't be a large system??? I have seen plenty of systems when they hit land expand in size and not lose strength, and that is what I'm expecting when it goes over the very flat part of the Yucatan, and it will be still going over very high OHC until it makes its turn to the N/NNE (whenever that is), so why would it go down from a very strong Cat 5 to a Cat 2? I'm hoping you are correct, just don't see it.

[plasticup]

Recon 15-20 minutes away from the center again.

[cheezyWXguy]

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

Once it clears out, I think Delta will easily surpass Wilma in terms of both pressure and MSW, given current trends and compact size/core. In fact, I think this could easily go up to 170+ knots and sub-880 mb, similar to and rivalling Patricia, and perhaps being similar to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was likely even stronger than its official 160-knot MSW indicates, given what we know today about similarly sized systems undergoing ERI. Personally, I think Delta will come close to Patricia’s peak intensity, given how conducive conditions are pre-Yucatán and how much time it has left over record-warm OHC before striking the Yucatán Peninsula. My estimate: 170–185 knots, 870–75 mb prior to and during landfall on the Yucatán. Fortunately, Delta is unlikely to be a large system for the remainder of its lifespan, minimising later surge and wind impacts on the N Gulf Coast of the U.S., given reduced storm surge due to compact size, along with strong vertical wind shear, dry air, and lower OHC (shallow shelf waters) near the N Gulf Coast. I’m thinking only a low-end Cat-2 (85 knots) or so striking Louisiana near Franklin–Morgan City.

What makes you think it won't be a large system??? I have seen plenty of systems when they hit land expand in size and not lose strength, and that is what I'm expecting when it goes over the very flat part of the Yucatan, and it will be still going over very high OHC until it makes its turn to the N/NNE (whenever that is), so why would it go down from a very strong Cat 5 to a Cat 2? I'm hoping you are correct, just don't see it.

It’s not likely to gain much size until it undergoes in ewrc, which should occur after this initial peak. Land interaction could also cause it to expand after it hits the Yucatán. It’ll probably grow some due to both of these, but higher background pressures could keep it from expanding too much.

[Shell Mound]

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

Once it clears out, I think Delta will easily surpass Wilma in terms of both pressure and MSW, given current trends and compact size/core. In fact, I think this could easily go up to 170+ knots and sub-880 mb, similar to and rivalling Patricia, and perhaps being similar to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was likely even stronger than its official 160-knot MSW indicates, given what we know today about similarly sized systems undergoing ERI. Personally, I think Delta will come close to Patricia’s peak intensity, given how conducive conditions are pre-Yucatán and how much time it has left over record-warm OHC before striking the Yucatán Peninsula. My estimate: 170–185 knots, 870–75 mb prior to and during landfall on the Yucatán. Fortunately, Delta is unlikely to be a large system for the remainder of its lifespan, minimising later surge and wind impacts on the N Gulf Coast of the U.S., given reduced storm surge due to compact size, along with strong vertical wind shear, dry air, and lower OHC (shallow shelf waters) near the N Gulf Coast. I’m thinking only a low-end Cat-2 (85 knots) or so striking Louisiana near Franklin–Morgan City.

What makes you think it won't be a large system??? I have seen plenty of systems when they hit land expand in size and not lose strength, and that is what I'm expecting when it goes over the very flat part of the Yucatan, and it will be still going over very high OHC until it makes its turn to the N/NNE (whenever that is), so why would it go down from a very strong Cat 5 to a Cat 2? I'm hoping you are correct, just don't see it.

Models are showing high background pressures during the remainder of Delta’s lifespan, given persistent low-level ridging and strong pressure gradients.

One can already see this at work, in fact, as Cat-4 Delta is moving WNW at ~14 knots (16 mph)—near-record forward speed for a MH in this location?

[p1nheadlarry]

Delta may be able to hold onto more of it's strength though due to the forward speed. Going slower would allow the shear, cooler water . . etc to rip her apart, but with a faster forward speed. she may not lose as much. Not a good thing for where ever landfall ends up being.

In the gulf? Yes. Currently however slow would be a nightmare.

[GCANE]

Recon folks are in for some dicey rides.
Prayers and wishing them all a safe mission.

[Nuno]

CDO appears to be expanding especially in the left quadrants

[tolakram]

What makes you think it won't be a large system??? I have seen plenty of systems when they hit land expand in size and not lose strength, and that is what I'm expecting when it goes over the very flat part of the Yucatan, and it will be still going over very high OHC until it makes its turn to the N/NNE (whenever that is), so why would it go down from a very strong Cat 5 to a Cat 2? I'm hoping you are correct, just don't see it.

Models are showing high background pressures during the remainder of Delta’s lifespan, given persistent low-level ridging and strong pressure gradients.

I don't understand what that has to do with a system size. Multiple ERC could easily make this a big storm, and one that, while probably "only" a cat 3 by this time does not weaken very fast. What are you reading / looking at that indicates this will remain a smaller storm?