ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Hurricane watches may be needed for the northern Gulf coast this afternoon.

[toad strangler]

Marco looks like a June slop fest headed for the big bend. Not suggesting that's going to happen but it does have that look. we have been under a pall of overcast and rain for days here on the west coast of fl. it's been nice to catch up on needed rainfall and break the heat..

That's exactly what it looks like and if I didn't know any better, and saw this image after crawling out of a cave, I'd say Marco would follow the heavy moisture feed to the NE into the FL Big Bend.

[psyclone]

Marco looks like a June slop fest headed for the big bend. Not suggesting that's going to happen but it does have that look. we have been under a pall of overcast and rain for days here on the west coast of fl. it's been nice to catch up on needed rainfall and break the heat..

That's exactly what it looks like and if I didn't know any better, and saw this image after crawling out of a cave, I'd say Marco would follow the heavy moisture feed to the NE into the FL Big Bend.

even if the center doesn't some of its sensible wx is. very wet pattern here and the fire hose is still aimed this direction.

[StPeteMike]

Definitely setting up a situation that the ridge breaks down more than forecasted.

[wxman57]

Adjusted track to landfall near mouth of MS before noon Monday with 55kt winds. Small storm interacting with strong SW winds aloft is tricky to forecast intensity. Could be weaker, could be stronger. I see consensus now says west MS coast Monday PM. I think the G-IV data in the 12Z models caught on to the fact that the low/trof isn't going to retrograde west as fast as predicted.

[PTPatrick]

Waiting for the largest shift of a nhc cone with the 5 pm that I may have ever seen for 48 hrs out

[GCANE]

Some cumulus over Yucatan just starting to fire off.
Clearly seeing the inflow from them already on Low-Level WV Imagery.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1297265823258750981

[CrazyC83]

I'd suspect the next track at 4 pm will show landfall in SE LA and then a hard left bend after landfall - basically following near I-10 to dissipation.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'd suspect the next track at 4 pm will show landfall in SE LA and then a hard left bend after landfall - basically following near I-10 to dissipation.

Agree.

[GCANE]

Convection over the CoC is beginning to exhibit high-helicity.
Trof could be taking a bit hit in the coming hours.
Big blow up in convection along the IoT BoC coast.

[wxman57]

Waiting for the largest shift of a nhc cone with the 5 pm that I may have ever seen for 48 hrs out

Will be interesting. They don't like to make large shifts. It's not really a large track shift, just a delayed west turn by 12 hrs or so, that result in a landfall in SE LA vs. skirting the coast.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1297265823258750981

[ConvergenceZone]

The good news is that this going more east will probably have an effect on TD Laura not getting very strong since they would be much much more closer together.

[AnnularCane]

I'm just glad I'm not in a position to have to decide where to issue watches for these two.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone closing in from the south.
Obviously reducing shear

[PTPatrick]

Waiting for the largest shift of a nhc cone with the 5 pm that I may have ever seen for 48 hrs out

Will be interesting. They don't like to make large shifts. It's not really a large track shift, just a delayed west turn by 12 hrs or so, that result in a landfall in SE LA vs. skirting the coast.

Exactly...skirting a coast always makes for some interesting tracks . It’s not huge but makes a big enough difference in the not terribly wide cone at 36-48 that they could easily miss outside their current cone in that time frame, which to their credit is rare. Not criticizing.... Know they do their best.

[lrak]

With the possibly weak future steering will these storms get kinda "stuck" like Dorian and Harvey, then take off NE after dumping rain for a few days? They are not major storms and was wondering if that has something to do with why those major storms got "stuck" for a while?

[GCANE]

Core still in low CAPE air.
Hasn't picked up the more unstable air yet.

[wxman57]

The good news is that this going more east will probably have an effect on TD Laura not getting very strong since they would be much much more closer together.

Marco will be tiny, so not much impact on Laura. The trof retreating less to the west may keep Laura from reaching Texas, however.