ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1313519442043850753

[plasticup]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1313519442043850753

A fujiwhara effect would push Delta farther north/east.

[Nuno]

It's almost like the Atlantic took NHC's statement that they would not retire Greek names as a challenge. I hope everyone in its path evacuates or gets to a safe place. If this really makes landfall in Yucatan the damage will be catastrophic.

Yeah this is a generational storm. Unless something very unexpected happens I expect Mexico to petition for its retirement. Probably America too.

I agree with you that this is a "generational" storm, but we seem to have had several of these in the last four years or so...

[Stormgodess]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

[MarioProtVI]

It's weird that we have a cat 4 storm with a perfect CDO but an eye that is so small and cloud filled. It's almost scarier looking because it's a sign that it is nowhere near leveling off in intensity. Once it clears out it's going to look insane.

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

Once it clears out, I think Delta will easily surpass Wilma in terms of both pressure and MSW, given current trends and compact size/core. In fact, I think this could easily go up to 170+ knots and sub-880 mb, similar to and rivalling Patricia, and perhaps being similar to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was likely even stronger than its official 160-knot MSW indicates, given what we know today about similarly sized systems undergoing ERI. Personally, I think Delta will come close to Patricia’s peak intensity, given how conducive conditions are pre-Yucatán and how much time it has left over record-warm OHC before striking the Yucatán Peninsula. My estimate: 170–185 knots, 870–75 mb prior to and during landfall on the Yucatán. Fortunately, Delta is unlikely to be a large system for the remainder of its lifespan, minimising later surge and wind impacts on the N Gulf Coast of the U.S., given reduced storm surge due to compact size, along with strong vertical wind shear, dry air, and lower OHC (shallow shelf waters) near the N Gulf Coast. I’m thinking only a low-end Cat-2 (85 knots) or so striking Louisiana near Franklin–Morgan City.

Highly unlikely (in fact near impossible this even gets to Patricia’s strength). It’s moving a bit too fast to have as much time to bomb the hell out as Patricia did. IMO, a peak of say 150-165 mph with a pressure around 915-930 is far more likely then that.

[plasticup]

Recon coming into the center now for their fifth pass.

It's almost like the Atlantic took NHC's statement that they would not retire Greek names as a challenge. I hope everyone in its path evacuates or gets to a safe place. If this really makes landfall in Yucatan the damage will be catastrophic.

Yeah this is a generational storm. Unless something very unexpected happens I expect Mexico to petition for its retirement. Probably America too.

I agree with you that this is a "generational" storm, but we seem to have had several of these in the last four years or so...

Almost as if something in the climate is changing. Weird.

[Ryxn]

Delta's coming for her ex, Gamma. She gon' swallow her whole

[wx98]

FL winds not near as high that time. This pass confirms a 130 mph Cat 4 with pressure in the mid-950s.

[plasticup]

954.3 mbar

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems as though intensification isn't quite as rapid as it was earlier based on initial data from that pass.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Looks as though the high pressure ridge has been severely underestimated. As for the trough that is/was supposed to cause the northward turn where is it located at this time? TIA

[ElectricStorm]

Seems as though intensification isn't quite as rapid as it was earlier based on initial data from that pass.

Eye needs to clear out before it really goes nuclear

[lando]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

https://i.postimg.cc/y8CJTk34/Delta.png

Trees aren’t a concern as long as you are boarded up, go with the stronger residence you trust

[supercane4867]

The highest readings of this pass were labeled suspect so it’s likely the strongest winds in the NE eyewall were missed.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems as though intensification isn't quite as rapid as it was earlier based on initial data from that pass.

Kind of what I expected to hear. I would expect this stair stepping in strengthening to continue until it clears out the eye.

[MarioProtVI]

121 kt SFMR but marked as suspect. FL not as high from before but this confirms a 115 kt storm at least. Pressure hasn’t dropped much since then

[TheProfessor]

The lightning in the core of Delta has been impressive. Probably one of the more impressive light shows I've seen in the core of a Cat-4.

[Stormgodess]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

https://i.postimg.cc/y8CJTk34/Delta.png

Trees aren’t a concern as long as you are boarded up, go with the stronger residence you trust

And.. its actually slightly further EAST of the track NOT West, Im not sure why I said that. So that makes me feel better too.

[SupaShrink]

[quote="Stormgodess"]Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

I'd personally stay away from the trees. I'm in Baton Rouge now. Just got giant water oak cut down and I'm feeling much better. Have seen several trees in my neighborhood almost take out whole houses.

[aspen]

Could there be something that’s preventing Delta’s eye from clearing? Is there evidence of an EWRC trying to start?