ATL: LAURA - Models

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS... Cat 1/2 into SFL/Key Largo... Wow this will get the board jumping more than coffee this morning...

really need to understand why the gfs and euro struggled with this one and i don't believe it was lack of planes and crusie ships, there are enough planes flying for data, you don't need data every 20 mins..the atmospheric setup was always there and sst's certainly were never an issue...the track was decent but the intensity was awful...i expect the track the shift south, if I'm in key west I am buying fuel today for the genny

It seems this season there needs to be an established LLC for the operational GFS/ECMWF to finally give us realistic solutions. In my personal opinion it has some connection with how these models use convective parameterization. This was the 00z ECMWF run from the 19th for now (so the run just from 24 hours ago). Completely missed the convective burst that occurred last night over the circulation:

https://i.imgur.com/JZ67BaH.png

https://i.imgur.com/Vj5rI9R.png

excellent point on the convective burst...if it misses that it really doesn't stand a chance of a realistic solution downstream...I'm starting to think these models are getting to complex for their own good, too much data and "overthinking it"...this banter the last few days about lack of ships and planes causing the issue while plausible, if the model fails because its not getting data every few minutes then we have problem..its not like their are no planes flying and trans Atlantic shipping is alive and well

[SFLcane]

That was likely a high end cat 2 or major into SFL on the GFS.

[Shell Mound]

06z GFS 2 TC in the gulf

https://i.imgur.com/HRq5vhM.png

https://i.imgur.com/QQAiDgB.png

The track of TD Thirteen is probably too far west, however, given that TD Thirteen’s strength will likely shear 97L more than the GFS indicates.

[USTropics]

06z GFS 2 TC in the gulf

https://i.imgur.com/HRq5vhM.png

https://i.imgur.com/QQAiDgB.png

The track of TD Thirteen is probably too far west, however, given that TD Thirteen’s strength will likely shear 97L more than the GFS indicates.

Definitely, if the timing is off on this run (i.e. the storm moves a bit slower) we could see a track up the spine or even still up the east coast of Florida. Something else to watch for, if you look at the 200mb forecast of the GFS you have this this thin ridge over Florida. As the model has continually showed a more developed 97L with each run, the outflow seems to cause the ridge to be a bit stronger:



Main takeaway from the latest runs, if there isn't any land interaction we are likely to see a potent system.

[TheStormExpert]

Finally the GFS came to its senses!

Will you follow suite Euro this afternoon?

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles are very active. Looks like maybe 4 members have this going over GA. The rest are north through 102 hours:

[USTropics]

06z GFS-Para ensembles:

[Shell Mound]

06z GFS-Para ensembles:
https://i.ibb.co/zh1tLJQ/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-watl-fh48-150.gif

For the first time, the strongest members take TD Thirteen WNW directly into South FL and don’t turn NW until the longitude of Tampa Bay.

Given that the 06Z GFS runs are the first to accurately gauge current organisation trends, the trend toward stronger TC + ridge is interesting.

Edit: now the operational GEFS parallels its parallel, with the majority of (strong) members tracking WNW into South Florida as well:

[toad strangler]

Well, well, well, look at the GFS. Huh .... you don't say

[DestinHurricane]

GFS caves! Euro is the last one. I'm expecting the NHC intensity forecast to be bumped up at 11 due to the GFS.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF and HMON are running, both are a fair bit north (so far) of the 0z runs. I.e. north of the Caribbean islands.

[caneseddy]

ICON 6z run shifts north from going through the Straits to now passing over the Middle Keys and off of SW Florida Peninsula with an Irma like track

[Shell Mound]

ICON 6z run shifts north from going through the Straits to now passing over the Middle Keys and off of SW Florida Peninsula with an Irma like track

When all is said and done the various models may ultimately converge on a powerful landfall in the Miami area → WNW/NW to Tampa Bay.

[USTropics]

HWRF is much stronger this run, about a full degree north in latitude as well:

[NDG]

06z shows TD 13 kind of not strengthening much over the next 36 hrs, and I agree. But once it starts tracking westward north of the Leeward Islands it starts taking off, becoming a hurricane north of Hispaniola late Saturday night. Looks like that on this run is headed straight for S FL at least as a Cat 4.

[caneseddy]

HMON seems to want to landfall in Upper Keys/Southern Miami-Dade

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF is much stronger this run, about a full degree north in latitude as well:

https://i.imgur.com/nQBZB39.png

I think we all know how that's going to end...

[SFLcane]

06z HWRF clearly clears the islands heading on a westerly course towards potentially FL. Run still not done

[DestinHurricane]

HMON about to clear Andros as 105.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf gonna end very ugly