ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF has the eye popping out by 00z.

[Blinhart]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

https://i.postimg.cc/y8CJTk34/Delta.png

Trees aren’t a concern as long as you are boarded up, go with the stronger residence you trust

You must of never seen an 200 year old Oak Tree fall onto a Brick House, it can completely disintegrate a brick home in seconds.

[Stormgodess]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

I'd personally stay away from the trees. I'm in Baton Rouge now. Just got giant water oak cut down and I'm feeling much better. Have seen several trees in my neighborhood almost take out whole houses.

Yeh Gustav took down MAJOR trees in Baton rouge. If track and forecasts of Delta hold, are you staying and riding it out?

[supercane4867]

Could there be something that’s preventing Delta’s eye from clearing? Is there evidence of an EWRC trying to start?

Lack of upper level divergence would explain it. The outflow pattern isn’t as impressive as many intense systems in the past.

[Aric Dunn]

[SupaShrink]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

I'd personally stay away from the trees. I'm in Baton Rouge now. Just got giant water oak cut down and I'm feeling much better. Have seen several trees in my neighborhood almost take out whole houses.

Yeh Gustav took down MAJOR trees in Baton rouge. If track and forecasts of Delta hold, are you staying and riding it out?

Riding it out of course

[zal0phus]

Seems as though intensification isn't quite as rapid as it was earlier based on initial data from that pass.

Kind of what I expected to hear. I would expect this stair stepping in strengthening to continue until it clears out the eye.

Yeah, it's probably going to hesitate for a few hours. Once this thing clears its eye I expect the worst.

[Stormgodess]

Yeh Gustav took down MAJOR trees in Baton rouge. If track and forecasts of Delta hold, are you staying and riding it out?

Riding it out of course

We rode out Katrina in the Brick house, but Left for Gustav to Arkansas, and ended up getting stuck in MAJOR flooding there as it moved North. Man seriously, I was born and raised here, everyone I know is here, but this year, and the 2016 floods, makes me just want to freaking leave

Im getting so tired of being scared all the dang time

[GCANE]

Just about to close off the Hadley-Cell circulation with the ULL

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.ibb.co/LSbL6ft/ezgif-com-resize-6.gif

Kind of looks like concentric eyewalls there, but long range radar can be deceiving since it’s only seeing the tops of the bands. Laura looked like this when she was coming in, but the appearance smoothed out as she got closer. Plus I don’t think there is any double wind maximum in the recon data at this time

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.ibb.co/LSbL6ft/ezgif-com-resize-6.gif

Kind of looks like concentric eyewalls there, but long range radar can be deceiving since it’s only seeing the tops of the bands. Laura looked like this when she was coming in, but the appearance smoothed out as she got closer. Plus I don’t think there is any double wind maximum in the recon data at this time

yeah it looks like there might be one trying to form. but nothing in recon data yet.

[TheProfessor]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

I'd personally stay away from the trees. I'm in Baton Rouge now. Just got giant water oak cut down and I'm feeling much better. Have seen several trees in my neighborhood almost take out whole houses.

No matter what anyone here can tell you, it won't be better than the professionals at the NHC or your local Nation Weather Service Office. Getting in contact with your local EMA could also be helpful. The Red Cross has a great map for general evacuation ideas in Louisiana. This PDF also has multiple contacts for agencies as well. The Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness could be a helpful contact, they are letter C in the Agency Contact Information.

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/ ... 1_evac.pdf

[GCANE]

Eye drop just in. 957mb
Continuing to dry out.
Forget about any EWRC in the near term.

[NotoSans]

Center pressure actually RISEN by 2mb according to latest eye drop.

[us89]

Eye drop just in. 957mb
Continuing to dry out.
Forget about any EWRC in the near term.

https://i.imgur.com/UPMWB75.png

Interestingly, that is about a 1 mb increase in pressure since the last drop

[aspen]

Just about to close off the Hadley-Cell circulation with the ULL

https://i.imgur.com/nUlxPsW.png

Will that help with outflow/UL divergence?

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone else notice that the cdo just got noticeably cooler in the last few frames?

[kevin]

When is the next recon planned after this one? This is such a rare storm that I feel there should be near-constant recon in there at this stage of the storm, if possible.

[wx98]

After the large wind increase a couple hours ago, not surprising to see it level off in the short term. This has happened plenty of times before where a storm will make a big “jump” and then level off. I would say modest to fast intensification will begin again shortly.

Also, unless they’ve updated the flight schedule, recon is leaving now and won’t be back until around 23z.

[Stormgodess]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly west of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

I'd personally stay away from the trees. I'm in Baton Rouge now. Just got giant water oak cut down and I'm feeling much better. Have seen several trees in my neighborhood almost take out whole houses.

No matter what anyone here can tell you, it won't be better than the professionals at the NHC or your local Nation Weather Service Office. Getting in contact with your local EMA could also be helpful. The Red Cross has a great map for general evacuation ideas in Louisiana. This PDF also has multiple contacts for agencies as well. The Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness could be a helpful contact, they are letter C in the Agency Contact Information.

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/ ... 1_evac.pdf

The thing is... We are far enough inland, we NEVER get Madatory evac orders. We are just far enough away from the coast to not be a major concern, but close enough that it can still be a very dangerous situation here. People in this area generally never evacuated for a storm, but man Katrina made us ALL rethink that!

Also, when it comes to thinking about evac. You also face the concern that you are possibly taking a hotel room from someone further south that need it more. We jumped early for Gustav 5 days before landfall, and decided to leave, and the closest room we found was North Arkansas 6 hrs away.